_临阵_转鸽-鲍威尔2025年杰克逊霍尔年会演讲

全球军费开支持续增长，需求刚性化加速，为军工市场提供强劲 支撑。同时，供给端重构显著，美元体系松动削弱美国控制力，俄罗 斯军贸份额坍塌，为中国打开替代缺口。中国军工制造完整度大幅提升，推动军贸从逆差转向顺差，中国 通过制造突破实现份额跃升，并依托“一带一路”深化出口替代，奠 定全球竞争基础。

国家育儿补贴方案公布，力度符合此前市场预期。国家今日（7 月 28 日）正式推出育儿补贴制度：2025 年 1 月 1 日起，每孩每年发放 3600 元，直至 3 周岁，覆盖一孩、二孩、三孩。2025 年前出生未满 3 岁者按剩余月数折算领取，例如 2023 年 12 月出生的婴幼儿可累计领取 24 个月补贴（7200 元）。补贴通过户籍地线上/线下申领 （线上为主）。

从整体的行业景气度方面来看，本周钢铁、建筑材料、电子、医药生物、非银金融、银行、房地产、环保等行业整体呈上行趋势；石油石化、机械设备、 食品饮料、纺织服饰、汽车、公用事业等行业整体呈下行趋势。基于我们 2024 年 10 月 15 日外发的《全行业中观景气度数据库应用框架》 内的模型及研究框架，本周，我们预测了未来 4 周表现较优的申万二级行业。

Talent management software is a workforce management tool that includes performance management, strategic hiring, and employee development. It helps employers track and manage their personnel by creating targets, finding and closing skill gaps, providing tailored development plans to employees, and conducting appraisals. It provides employers with tools with which they can manage, analyze, and reward employees based on their performance. This helps firms establish a culture of career growth and increase overall employee performance. As a result, it is extensively used in the BFSI, healthcare, IT, retail, and manufacturing industries.

Synthetic data generation refers to the creation of new datasets that simulate real-world data but are artificially generated. It involves creating data points that share similar statistical characteristics and patterns as the original data, without revealing any sensitive or confidential information. This technique is commonly used in various fields, such as ML, data analysis, and privacy-preserving research.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a type of alternative fuel specifically designed for use in aviation. It is produced from renewable feedstocks and aims to reduce the carbon emissions associated with conventional jet fuel. SAF is also commonly referred to as aviation biofuel or renewable jet fuel.

Surface treatment chemicals are specialized compounds used to modify the surface properties of materials such as metals, plastics, or glass without altering their core structure. These chemicals enhance characteristics like corrosion resistance, adhesion, wear resistance, and appearance by cleaning, coating, or preparing surfaces for further processing (e.g., painting, plating, or bonding). They play a critical role in industries such as automotive, aerospace, electronics, construction, and manufacturing to improve both the performance and longevity of finished products.

Supply chain analytics refers to the use of data analysis tools and techniques to gain insights, optimize processes, and make informed decisions within the supply chain. It involves collecting, processing, and analyzing data related to the various components of the supply chain, from procurement and production to distribution and logistics. The goal of supply chain analytics is to improve efficiency, reduce costs, enhance visibility, and ultimately contribute to better decision-making across the entire supply chain.

Superfoods are mainly classified into superfruits, superseeds and supergrains, edible seaweed, and other superfoods. The other superfoods includes vegetables, seafood, nuts, superfood powders, superfood-based packaged snacks, superfood ingredients, superfood mixes, and meat products such as salmon