回顾过往牛周期，前2两轮周期主要由消费增长驱动牛价中枢抬升，而 2018-2024 年的第三轮周期，更充分的补栏和更强劲的进口冲击导致牛价在周期后段出现大幅下跌，2024 年行业处于 深度亏损状态。站在当下时点，我们发现，1）肉牛产能显著去化，2025Q2 的肉牛存栏相比 2023 年末高点下降 5%，预计能繁母牛去化程度更深，而补栏再出栏需 2 年左右时间；2）2025 年上半年牛肉进口量下滑 9%，叠加海外牛价上涨产生的影响，进口补充或许同样受限；3）淘汰奶牛贡献的牛肉占比较小，即使奶价磨底推动淘汰加速，产生的增量也非常有限。因此，我们认为短时间内牛肉供给偏紧的格局难以改变，新一轮牛价上涨或将持续至 2027 年。

上周猪价 13.56 元/kg，环比上上周下降 0.37 元/kg，如果看各省降幅，两广降幅最为明显，一周价格下降接近 1 元/kg，对全国均价拖累最为明显。我们认为两广价格下降来自于调运政策变化，外调受限，省内价格受冲击。此外从养殖疫情来看，涌益咨询的数据显示，90kg 以下出栏比例小幅增长至 3.71%。疫情和政策在边际上对短期价格有影响，接下来观察调运政策的扩展以及疫情在南方地区的影响范围。

生猪板块：短期猪价虽承压，降本增效驱动业绩改善。投资建议：此前政策核心是抗通缩，未来重心或将逐步切换至反内卷，若反内卷政策趋严，本质上是对行业“无效扩张”的清算。此时成本优势即生存权：牧原、温氏等头部企业凭借效率壁垒，在政策约束下仍能维持较高头均盈利。推荐低成本、确定性强的龙头：【牧原股份】【温氏股份】；重点关注成本控制优异、成长性高的小猪企：【神农集团】【巨星农牧】【德康农牧】。风险提示：猪价不及预期、动物疫病大规模爆发、原材料价格大幅波动。

The global helicopter-based transport market refers to the industry involving the transportation of passengers, goods, or equipment by helicopters on a global scale. This market encompasses various sectors, including commercial, military, and private helicopter operations.

Heart transplantation therapeutics encompass any treatment aimed at improving outcomes before, during, and after the life-saving surgery of replacing a diseased heart with a healthy donor one. This includes:

Healthcare RCM software helps to streamline the medical practices financials. This software helps healthcare service providers to manage their business processes effectively. Some of the key findings include managing patient records, insurance status, and payment information. Integrating healthcare RCM software reduces denied claims, tracks unpaid claims, and reduces revenue leakages. Hospitals, medical labs, and physicians are the end-users of this software.

Healthcare physician staffing refers to the process of recruiting, placing, and managing medical professionals, such as doctors and specialists, to ensure that healthcare facilities have the appropriate personnel to meet patient care needs. This staffing can include permanent, temporary, or locum tenens physicians, and is essential for maintaining quality healthcare services, particularly in regions with physician shortages or high demand. It involves managing workforce distribution, addressing gaps in care, and ensuring compliance with healthcare regulations.

国内供需平衡趋于收紧，玉米价格有望维持温和上涨。USDA9 月供需报告预计 25/26 产季全球期末库销比环比调减 0.10pcts，中国期末库销比环比调减 0.34pcts。目前国内玉米价格已处于历史周期底部位置，中长期供需平衡趋于收紧，后续预计价格底部支撑较强。

Healthcare logistics refers to the planning, management, and execution of the movement and storage of healthcare products, equipment, and supplies throughout the healthcare supply chain. It involves the coordination of various activities, including procurement, warehousing, transportation, distribution, and inventory management, to ensure the timely and efficient delivery of healthcare goods to healthcare facilities, pharmacies, and ultimately to patients.

黄金长期上涨的基础在于法币信用的稀释。在全球财政赤字持续扩大，且货币供应超越实体经济增长时，法币信用及购买力就会被削弱，单位货币所能代表的真实价值也相应下降。黄金作为实物资产，其价值不依赖任何主权背书，因而在货币超发环境中能够实现价值的被动“重估”。长期来看，货币中最具竞争力的美元相对黄金已贬值超过98%。