2020 年 5 月建筑 A 股总体下跌、跑输大盘，H 股大部分下跌。二季度以来建筑 业基本面逐月向上，我们预计随着前期“稳增长”政策效应逐步释放，基建投资 增速有望继续向上。我们继续看好基本面稳健的龙头企业增长机会，看好国检集 团、鸿路钢构、中国建筑国际、葛洲坝。

2016 年 10 月从第二轮债转股启动开始，债转股的规模逐年增加，资金到 位率也呈现上升趋势。截止至 2020 年 5 月，建筑央企进行债转股的有 6 家，分别为中国中铁、中国铁建、中国核建、中国交建、中国电建和中国建 筑。其中中国中铁完成了对子公司的增资还债入股与发股回购子公司股权的 两过程，其余 5 家目前只进行了增资入股偿债。在目前政策窗口期内，企 业实行债转股得到较好政策支持，在流动性边际宽松的同时，投资机构对于 要求回报率的降低使得企业融资成本降低，叠加部分央企自身对于降杠杆的 需求迫切，此时是央企较好的“处理存量债务”的时期。

2019 年我国涂料销量为 2416.08 万吨，同比增长 38.31%，十年间年复合增 长率达到 10.89%。尽管涂料销售量在 2017-2018 年出现下滑，但在过去的 十年里整体呈稳定增长趋势。

高烈度区隔震技术应用于地产具备商业价值，即：降本促销。 由于隔震技术在国内发展时间不长并不广为人知，叠加近几年地产 “高周转”的诉求，相关人员顾及新技术的意愿较弱，导致当前地 产领域隔震的渗透率较低，但随着我国进入高质量发展阶段，购房 者对住宅质量要求已具备逐步提高的趋势，安全性能或将成为关键 考量因素之一。尤其在高烈度区，隔震技术在地产领域的渗透率提 升势在必行，已有案例江苏宿迁苏豪银座、成都凯德风尚等就是最 好的说明。

1-5 月新增专项债共发行 2.17 万亿，占全年额度 3.75 万亿的 58%。基础设施/市政 /民生工程/收费公路是主要流向。建筑业资金情况持续改善。维持全年基建投资增 速 12.3%的判断。关注水泥、园林、装配式建筑产业链、低估值建筑央企。

2018年底的中央经济工作会议上即明确了5G、人工智能、工业互联网、物联网等“新型基础设施建设”的定位，随后“加强新一代信息基础设施建设”被列入2019年政府工作报告。新基建是面向现代化建设和数字经济发展，并提供智能化产品和服务的新一代数字基础设施体系。

本报告从基建行业需求端、供给端、资金端三个维度入手，分析推导当 前加大基建投资力度的必要性；系统梳理 2020 年基建政策端配套措施、 存量重大项目、未来可投项目；盘点基建投资资金来源、规模。建议布 局低估值、具备中长期成长逻辑的龙头企业。

The Asia-Pacific construction sector is the largest in the world and is increasing at a healthy rate, owing to the rising population, increase in middle-class income, and urbanization. As per the statistics of the Nation Bureau of Statistics of China, the revenues of the construction sector registered a CAGR of ~3.75% between 2013-2018 and was valued at ~CNY 40,000 million in 2018. In 2019, the country’s construction industry is expected to rise by almost ~6%. Real estate investment, which includes investments in the residential and commercial sector and office spaces, rose by ~11.6% in January-February in 2019, compared to the same period in the previous year. The robust investment in the property sector was supported by steady housing prices and an increase in property construction. However, the fallout from the trade feud with China has led to increased volatility in the financial markets and caused businesses to turn more cautious. Manufacturing activity has pulled back considerably, and it is likely to either stall or contract during the first part of the year. Forecast for economic growth has scaled back as businesses have turned more cautious. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia is the largest and one of the fastest-growing markets. With annual population growth at about ~4 million, construction may remain a key economic enabler.

China’s cement industry is characterised by relatively low concentration and severe overcapacity. In 2018, China had about 3,500 cement enterprises. However, restrictions on adding new cement capacity have recently pushed cement manufacturers to expand their production through M&As. The economic imbalance between the coastal and inland parts of China is the reason for the unequal performance of cement producers from different regions. Most of them are located in the regions of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Southwest China.