我们在2018 年6 月赴越南调研，以纺织以及家电产业为例，考察了越南承接我国产业链转移情况。在“一带一路”政策的推力下，纺织龙头企业积极布局越南产能，带动整体产能快速增长，促进业绩提升，同时也规避了贸易战带来的不确定性。

个税法重大变革，调高起征点+优化税率级距+新增专项附加 扣除，减负促消费。个人所得税法修正案草案于 6 月 19 日提请 十三届全国人大常委会第三次会议审议，这是个税法自 1980 年 出台以来第七次大修，最重要的变化是将个税起征点由每月 3500 元提高至每月 5000 元（每年 6 万元），此外还包括对部分劳动性 所得实行综合征税、优化调整税率结构、设立专项附加扣除等系 列变动。2017 年零售百强名单发布，百强企业中电商保持较快增 长，实体零售企业整体回升

大众品市场空间巨大，具有竞 争激励，细分龙头市占率不高的特点，因此，龙头只有通过规模化/高周转快 速抢占市占率，将“高性价比”特性最大合理化，才能成为真正的强者。根据行 业的不同属性，体育用品龙头获得溢价的核心竞争力则体现在科技创新带来 的推广应用；大众休闲龙头则体现在供应链反应效率或规模化成本优势。童装 及家纺竞争格局优于体育及休闲，品牌化及品质化并进，仍可凭借效率，快速 抢占市场份额。经过上一轮调整，目前国内龙头正重塑并夯实从产品、供应链、 渠道到运营管理等核心竞争力，自 17 年经营质量逐步回升，步入复苏周期

年初以来，盈利改善预期支撑服装家纺板块估值修复。前期累计涨幅较大， 伴随 5 月零售数据短期干扰， 板块 6 月以来有所回调，市场对后续走势也出现一定分歧。本周专题，我们基于国际比较梳理海外纺服公司经营及估值表现，判断 A 股纺服公司后续估值演进方向。

中国消费信心指数创新高，消费积极性持续提升。18年第一季度，中国消费者信心指数创10年新高，达到122.3，较17年同期增长11.3个百分点。根据尼尔森《2018年第一季度中国消费者信心指数报告》，18年一季度消费者信心指数的增长是就业预期、个人经济状况和消费意愿三大因素共同作用的结果。商务部预计，2018年社会消费品零售总额比17年增长10%左右，网络零售额增长30%左右，国内贸易主要行业增加值增长7%左右，消费对GDP增长的贡献率稳定在60%以上，继续保持经济增长第一驱动力地位。

The report covers a study of the global textile printing machine market and provides a detailed analysis of the market trends, future estimations, and a thorough study of global market based on type, application, and geography. On the basis of type, the market is classified into rotary screen printing, automatic flat screen printing, handscreen printing, dye sublimation transfer printing, digital textile printing, hybrid printing machines, and others. The application segment includes clothing/ garments, household, display & others, and technical textiles. The market is analyzed based on four regions, namely, North America (U.S., Canada, and Mexico), Europe (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Russia, and rest of Europe), Asia-Pacific (China, India, Japan, Australia, and rest of Asia-Pacific), and LAMEA (Latin America, Turkey, rest of Middle East, and Africa).

India’s textile sector is the country’s oldest manufacturing industry. Textile and apparel contributed 4% to India’s GDP, 14% to industrial production, and 13% to exports in FY2017. Textiles is second only to agriculture in employment generation. The sector is dominated by cotton, which claims a share of over 65% of the total mill fibre consumption in the country. India accounts for about 14% of the global production of textile fibre and yarns, and is the second-largest producer, after China, of man-made fibre and filament. India’s textile and apparel sector is fragmented, with few large companies, and a dominant share of small, independent, and often unorganised players. The sector, which supplies fabrics and garments to leading global brands, is driven by India’s strengthening middle class whose taste for Western clothing has only recently eclipsed the sales performance of traditional dress.

A digital textile printing machine uses a computer and a printer to print graphics on textiles in significantly less duration. The report analyzes the digital textile industry printing machine market based on application, end user, and region. The process type segment covers direct-to-garment and direct-to-fabric. The application segment covers clothing & apparel, home furnishing, advertisement, and others. The study highlights Porters’ five force analysis for the global digital textile industry printing machine market. In addition, the report covers the study and analysis of top companies operating in the market along with their market share.

2018年初至今，纺织服装板块相对申万A指收益为-0.5%，位列全行业第11；商贸零售板块相对申万A指收益为1.7%，位列全行业第9；2017年，纺织服装板块是跌幅第一的板块；商贸零售板块是跌幅第五的板块；根据历史周期经验，18年大概率触底反弹，跑赢大盘，纺织服装以及商贸零售行业见底复苏正在进行中，已到配置最佳时！

2017H1 品牌服饰行业确立复苏，至今几个季度回暖态势延续，体现在收入增长持续较好水平的同时毛利率、存货周转等指标改善幅度加强。从子行业来看，高端服饰、家纺、中高端男装复苏较早，大众服饰于 17Q4确立拐点，其他子行业仍处于调整中。