年初以来，盈利改善预期支撑服装家纺板块估值修复。前期累计涨幅较大， 伴随 5 月零售数据短期干扰， 板块 6 月以来有所回调，市场对后续走势也出现一定分歧。本周专题，我们基于国际比较梳理海外纺服公司经营及估值表现，判断 A 股纺服公司后续估值演进方向。

中国消费信心指数创新高，消费积极性持续提升。18年第一季度，中国消费者信心指数创10年新高，达到122.3，较17年同期增长11.3个百分点。根据尼尔森《2018年第一季度中国消费者信心指数报告》，18年一季度消费者信心指数的增长是就业预期、个人经济状况和消费意愿三大因素共同作用的结果。商务部预计，2018年社会消费品零售总额比17年增长10%左右，网络零售额增长30%左右，国内贸易主要行业增加值增长7%左右，消费对GDP增长的贡献率稳定在60%以上，继续保持经济增长第一驱动力地位。

The report covers a study of the global textile printing machine market and provides a detailed analysis of the market trends, future estimations, and a thorough study of global market based on type, application, and geography. On the basis of type, the market is classified into rotary screen printing, automatic flat screen printing, handscreen printing, dye sublimation transfer printing, digital textile printing, hybrid printing machines, and others. The application segment includes clothing/ garments, household, display & others, and technical textiles. The market is analyzed based on four regions, namely, North America (U.S., Canada, and Mexico), Europe (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Russia, and rest of Europe), Asia-Pacific (China, India, Japan, Australia, and rest of Asia-Pacific), and LAMEA (Latin America, Turkey, rest of Middle East, and Africa).

India’s textile sector is the country’s oldest manufacturing industry. Textile and apparel contributed 4% to India’s GDP, 14% to industrial production, and 13% to exports in FY2017. Textiles is second only to agriculture in employment generation. The sector is dominated by cotton, which claims a share of over 65% of the total mill fibre consumption in the country. India accounts for about 14% of the global production of textile fibre and yarns, and is the second-largest producer, after China, of man-made fibre and filament. India’s textile and apparel sector is fragmented, with few large companies, and a dominant share of small, independent, and often unorganised players. The sector, which supplies fabrics and garments to leading global brands, is driven by India’s strengthening middle class whose taste for Western clothing has only recently eclipsed the sales performance of traditional dress.

A digital textile printing machine uses a computer and a printer to print graphics on textiles in significantly less duration. The report analyzes the digital textile industry printing machine market based on application, end user, and region. The process type segment covers direct-to-garment and direct-to-fabric. The application segment covers clothing & apparel, home furnishing, advertisement, and others. The study highlights Porters’ five force analysis for the global digital textile industry printing machine market. In addition, the report covers the study and analysis of top companies operating in the market along with their market share.

2018年初至今，纺织服装板块相对申万A指收益为-0.5%，位列全行业第11；商贸零售板块相对申万A指收益为1.7%，位列全行业第9；2017年，纺织服装板块是跌幅第一的板块；商贸零售板块是跌幅第五的板块；根据历史周期经验，18年大概率触底反弹，跑赢大盘，纺织服装以及商贸零售行业见底复苏正在进行中，已到配置最佳时！

2017H1 品牌服饰行业确立复苏，至今几个季度回暖态势延续，体现在收入增长持续较好水平的同时毛利率、存货周转等指标改善幅度加强。从子行业来看，高端服饰、家纺、中高端男装复苏较早，大众服饰于 17Q4确立拐点，其他子行业仍处于调整中。 

国内服装零售持续回暖，出口数据继续向好。2018 年 1-4 月国内服装鞋帽针纺织品类零售额 0.45 万亿，同比增长 9.7%，同比提升 2.6 pct。 2018 年 1-4 月纺织服装出口额同比增加 3.03%，复苏趋势显著。

爱茉莉太平洋集团是韩国经营彩妆、护肤品的研发、生产与销售的最大化妆品企业。爱茉莉太平洋自1945 年创业以来，经

历70 余年的发展，旗下子公司跨行数十业，海外分支机构遍布全球，国际行销网络遍及40 余个国家，所生产的化妆品项目多

达4000 多种。爱茉莉太平洋秉持“亚洲之美创造者”这一使命，凭借品类丰富、更新速度快的产品在亚洲市场影响深远。

马莉看行业：再谈品牌服饰股票的定价，龙头正处于报表质量改善+估值提升的戴维斯双击阶段。这一轮品牌服装的上涨，板块指数表现波澜不惊，阶段最高涨幅仅10%，但品牌服装个股中，年初至今取得40%以上涨幅的有森马服饰（78%）、海澜之家（48%），取得20%以上涨幅的更是达到了9 个。