核心观点：基于近期原材料价格上涨的背景和对大众品行业提价周期的复盘，本文针对原材料价格变动对于各子行业盈利能力的影响进行了定量分析，研究发现原材料价格变动将对大众品行业毛利率产生显著负向影响，且影响持续时间平均维持2-4 个季度，但企业通过直接提价+产品升级可有效转移成本压力、改善业绩水平，其中改善幅度、时长存在个股分化。本文希望通过定量分析，在商品价格大涨时期给予投资者一

些借鉴。

The global dark spirits market is analyzed on the basis of its prospects and future growth rate. The report highlights numerous factors that influence the growth of the global dark spirits market. These include market forecast, drivers, restraints, opportunities, and role of key players operating in the market. The report is analyzed by type, which includes whiskey, rum, and brandy; and by distribution channel, which includes on trade and off trade. Furthermore, it includes revenue generated from the sales of dark spirits across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

商超数据显示1Q21液态奶/酸奶/奶粉销售额同比+6.6%/-13.0%/-5.9%；液态奶行业及伊利、蒙牛液态奶产品累计ASP均同比提升，显示出液态奶竞争趋缓态势。疫情后期高端白奶需求旺盛，同时2021年奶牛养殖成本上涨、原奶供给端仍处于偏紧状态，因此我们预计2021年奶价将继续处于高位。今年各大乳企继续加速布局低温乳品。

Sparkling wine is a fermented carbonated beverage made with grapes and other fruits. The fermentation process results in the production of alcohol and CO2. During the fermentation process, the gas is not allowed to escape, and thus forms tiny bubbles. This carbonation of wine takes place either in bottles or large tanks. Carbonation can also result from CO2 injected into a few varieties of wines.

白酒：板块有所回落，均价持续提升。乳制品：板块景气持续，品类均价分化。调味品：增速同比转负，集中度有所下降。保健食品：板块量价齐升，需求趋势向好。休闲食品：业绩有所下滑，集中度环比下降。奶粉：飞鹤销量高增，均价平稳增长。

白酒板块，全年来看，高端白酒及次高端白酒消费升级趋势明显，扩容提速，相关 酒企动销进度远好于去年同期。啤酒板块，2021Q1 全国啤酒总产量 821.99 万千升，同比增长 50.66%。乳制品板块，上游奶源供给偏紧价格持续上行，带动下游竞争趋缓，同时一季度同 比均呈现明显改善。卤制品板块，持续看好卤味龙头绝味食品。调味品板块，建议关注低估值存在预期差企业。

Dairy proteins are derived from milk and are consumed widely in food & beverages, personal care applications, and various nutrition products. The report scope includes various types of dairy protein including whey protein, casein & derivatives, and milk protein concentrates. In addition, the report also provides the market categorization based on form into solid and liquid. The applications of dairy protein considered in the scope of the study include food & beverages, nutrition, personal care & cosmetics, feed, and others.

整体观感：下半场的变局与机会。年内节奏看，市场主线仍是业绩兑现支撑估值，需求复苏和成本传导走向下半场，一是需求由反弹式高增走向平稳式增长，二是上游提价逐步传导，下游成本抬升和提价概率提高。同时产业新趋势和新机会显现，一是新的景气赛道出现，如预制菜等，二是集中成为传统赛道新主题，如啤酒企业布局果酒领域。