增发国债之后，一般估计对于 2024 年经济增速要求有所提升，我们认为经济增速目标继续定在 5%左右。剩下就是考虑政策会如何配合支持。中央政府加杠杆迈出了关键一步，但是 1 万亿的国债增发并不足以支撑经 济增速稳定在 5%。一方面需要财政进一步的加码，比如 2024 年初的专项 债提前批和 2024 年全年赤字率的进一步提升；另一方面，还需要财政向实 体信用的传导，因为需要带动全社会杠杆，而现阶段全社会杠杆的引导带动离不开结构性工具支持，所以 PSL、再贷款、专项政策性金融工具等仍然需要增加运用。最后还是地产，地产方面需要进一步增量政策来托住底 线。

本周景气度改善的领域主要在上游资源品、信息技术和金融地产。上游资源品中钢材、焦煤焦炭价格持续上涨，水泥继续改善。中游制造领域，新能源产业链和光伏价格指数持续下跌，10 月包装专用设备产量同比降幅收窄。信息技术中多层陶瓷电容台股营收改善，移动通信基站设备产量同比跌幅收窄。10 月机械领域景气度仍然较为分化，机床产量明显改善，人形机器人商业化提速。推荐关注景气持续改善的钢材等部分资源品和电子等 TMT 领域，以及改善较为明显的机床工具领域。

The transport media is a medical device and essential buffered solution containing peptones, carbohydrates, and other nutrients, excluding growth factors designed and developed for infectious microorganism specimen collection, transport, preservation, and analysis. Transport media solutions preserve the viability of viruses, bacteria, and other microbes during transport without allowing them to multiply in a secure bio-environment. There are types of transport media developed for infectious disease diagnosis.

The tabletop games market is diverse, with a variety of tabletop games available both for kids and adults as well as families & gatherings. The market offers huge potential owing to the increased adoption of tabletop games across countries. The global tabletop games market is bifurcated into six segments, namely, board games, card games, dice games, miniature games, tabletop RPG games, tile-based games, and other tabletop games. Based on themes, the global tabletop games market is divided into educational, strategy and war, fantasy, sports, historical, and others. Tabletop games are normally sold via two prime modes, i.e., offline and online.

我们梳理了全球大宗商品中有切实经济含义的三十大配对交易策略，覆盖能源、金属以及农产品等品种。根据历史规律，结合当前经济形势，统计了三 十大策略的历史分位数。我们提示关注处于历史极值位置、具有较高反转概率且符合当前经济形势的五大商品交易策略：多恒生中国企业指数空铜、多沥青空原油、多棉纱空棉花、多螺纹钢空铁矿石以及多原油空原糖。

Revolutionary technology has brought about digital globalization, enabling businesses and brands to go beyond cultural, language, and geographic boundaries to communicate with customers and market their products and services. Until globalization, being locally relevant was not a requirement, thereby hedging communication. However, cross-border flows in this complex, digitally connected economy have led to the need for more participation in communication, information, searches, and commerce. SMEs are becoming micro-multinationals using platforms such as Facebook, Amazon, Alibaba, and eBay. Individuals have also become ingrained in the process of globalization by using digital platforms, developing international connections, and participating in e-commerce.

近期市场对美国企业债 2024 年进入到期峰值的担忧升温，而通过对企业债到期的结构分布、企业偿债能力、再融资负担进行统计，我们得到如下结论：1、美国企业债 2024 年到期金额小于 2023 年，其实债务偿还压力更轻且投资级到期为主；2025、2026 年方才进入偿债高峰，由于到期债务中高收益债占比更高，因此 2025 年到期潮才可能边际风险上升。2、行业结构来看，2025 年到期潮来临后，可选消费、通信、能源、医疗保健行业的债务偿还压力更大。3、站在当下，从债务负担、偿债能力角度，均还看不到企业债市场较大的违约风险。4、但由于当前企业债收益率大幅走高，若利率不下行则未来企业再融资压力会明显提升。

2023 年，市场信心恢复滞后于已出现转折的政策和经济周期；2024 年，市场信心将重聚，投资者行为变化驱动估值修复是 A 股市场的主旋律，预计上半年 弹性更大，下半年震荡分化，建议坚持“三阶段配置策略”，把握从当前第二阶段超跌成长向第三阶段白马龙头的切换时机。