板块估值回落至近三年平均水平以下。2021 年以来恒生指数跑输A 股，此外由 于大众消费疲弱，恒生必需消费指数承压，行业估值已回落至近三年估值平均水 平以下，核心个股的估值普遍在2021 年有所调整。在整体板块疲弱的背景下， 业绩确定性较高的个股获资金增持较多，而基本面有一定承压的个股则受到南下 资金减持压力。2021 年青岛啤酒股份/九毛九/华润啤酒/现代牧业/蒙牛乳业增持 比例较高，年末港股通持股比例较年初分别增加8.7/4.4/2.6/2.0/1.6pcts。

21 年12 月白酒产量同比下降，名酒终端价有所回落。全国2021 年12 月白酒产量 83.8 万千升，同比下降12.3%。2021 年全年全国累计白酒产量715.6 万千升，累计 同比下降0.6%。京东部分名优白酒22 年1 月28 日价格相较21 年12 月31 日价 格：京东52 度五粮液微降至1,388 元/瓶；52 度剑南春下降11 元至468 元/瓶；52 度水井坊回落114 元至574 元/瓶。

调味品：动销延续改善，行业拐点将至。总体看，春节需求延续边际改善趋势，行业处于底部回暖区间。受益于宏观需求回暖+提价备货刺激，我们预计春节前调味品渠道有望实现较高双位数增长，但22Q1 上市公司报表端收入增速或相对平稳；从终端来看，行业动销持续改善，一方面整体货龄环比下降，但提价与备货推动海天货龄略微走高；另一方面促销力度适中，海天通过促销动作配合提价成功传导至KA 终端，厨邦提价尚未传导完成。展望后市，乐观看待22Q2之后行业迎来基本面拐点，主要得益于：1）疫情逐渐可控，零售&餐饮需求渐进式复苏；2）22H2 包材、大豆价格或逐步回落，成本端压力有望逐渐缓解；3）提价对业绩弹性的贡献有望逐季兑现。

整体需求仍处底部，短期疫情放大结构性变化，乳业、酵母、预制菜相对受益。12 月社零整体同增1.7%，增速环比-2.2 pcts，其中，商品、餐饮分别同比+2.3%、-2.2%，增速环比-2.5pct、+0.5pct，需求仍处底部。同时，本周春运已拉开序幕，根据交通部研判，预计今年春节期间全国共发送旅客11.8 亿人次，较2021 年同比增长35.6%，但与正常年份相比，客流总量仍处于中低位。在经济下行、疫情反复背景下，预计就地过年对消费的结构性影响仍将延续，城市业态及居家消费属性或相对受益，而疫情相对严重地区的礼赠、聚会相关需求或将相对承压。

2022 年以来，受多地散发疫情及整体消费疲软等因素影响，食品饮料板块股价表现较弱，跑输市场 1.2%，排名第 23。综合细分板块景气度以及股价表现，食品饮料行业投资主线：主线一，行业逻辑望持续兑现，首推啤酒及乳制品板块，看好啤酒行业持续高端化，推荐华润啤酒、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒、燕京啤酒；看好乳业双雄盈利拐点已到，推荐伊利股份、蒙牛乳业。主线二，提价逻辑驱动，关注原材料成本下降、价格传导等超预期的弹性机会，推荐安琪酵母、洽洽食品、涪陵榨菜。主线三，大单品&渠道扩张驱动，关注成长股的逻辑兑现和超预期可能，推荐东鹏饮料、立高食品，关注甘源食品、妙可蓝多、盐津铺子、颐海国际。主线四，关注 2022 年疫情缓解幅度，有望带来依赖餐饮渠道和独立开店公司的投资机会，推荐安井食品、绝味食品，关注海天味业、巴比食品、千味央厨、日辰股份、桃李面包。

基金前二十大重仓股配置情况：从前二十大重仓股情况来看，基金配置的前二十大重仓股持股市值占基金股票投资市值延续上一季度的环比回落趋势。2021Q4 前二十大重仓股持股市值占基金股票投资市值比为17.34%，环比21Q3 下降1.20pct，持仓集中度有所下降。

品牌入局预制菜，品质升级成关键。消费者居家烹饪的意愿度高，预制菜有助于平衡消费者对食品品质和烹饪便捷度的双重要求。多品牌入局预制菜赛道，未来继续关注包装技术和配送模式升级，打造更好的品质。压力、失眠相关的情绪困扰受到重视，含有相关营养成分的功能性食品被消费者的关注。国内，新品品类正朝多样化趋势发展，需重视成分同质化和产品功能沟通难的问题。

The global Macarons market is evolving and a greater number of organisations are leveraging them to their advantage due to the demand. As the market is growing, many local and international players are having their focus onto the Macarons and claim the benefits of the growing opportunity. Hence, more than the threat of new entrants, existing players would be more of a threat during the forecasted period for this market. This also makes a good opportunity to new entrants to only focus on the particular macarons product type or flavor type and make their own niche.

Low calorie snack foods are aiding to more specific roles in food lives as customers continue to look for ways to balance nutrient-dense, healthy and purposeful snacking with the aim for emotionally satisfying and indulgent snacks, especially when indulgent snacks are of higher quality. Low calorie snacks have the potential to offer several health benefits without impacting the health as it is prepared from natural and free from ingredients. The base year of the global low calorie snacks market is 2020, wherein the forecast period is 2021-2030. The report scope includes various types of low calorie snacks, including sweet snacks, and savory snacks. The packaging types of low calorie snacks considered in the scope of the study include pouches, cans, jars, and others. By distribution channel, it is divided into business to business, and business to customer. The distribution channel of low calorie snacks considered in the scope of the study include business to business and business to customer.

Texturized plant-based meat or plant-based meat are structured plant-derived products designed to directly replace animal meat, including poultry and seafood. These products are obtained through texturized vegetable proteins (TVPs), which are formed through extrusion or fiber spinning technologies. •Different types of TVPs are available; they are used either as meat extenders or as meat analogs and include the following: