整体需求仍处底部，短期疫情放大结构性变化，乳业、酵母、预制菜相对受益。12 月社零整体同增1.7%，增速环比-2.2 pcts，其中，商品、餐饮分别同比+2.3%、-2.2%，增速环比-2.5pct、+0.5pct，需求仍处底部。同时，本周春运已拉开序幕，根据交通部研判，预计今年春节期间全国共发送旅客11.8 亿人次，较2021 年同比增长35.6%，但与正常年份相比，客流总量仍处于中低位。在经济下行、疫情反复背景下，预计就地过年对消费的结构性影响仍将延续，城市业态及居家消费属性或相对受益，而疫情相对严重地区的礼赠、聚会相关需求或将相对承压。

2022 年以来，受多地散发疫情及整体消费疲软等因素影响，食品饮料板块股价表现较弱，跑输市场 1.2%，排名第 23。综合细分板块景气度以及股价表现，食品饮料行业投资主线：主线一，行业逻辑望持续兑现，首推啤酒及乳制品板块，看好啤酒行业持续高端化，推荐华润啤酒、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒、燕京啤酒；看好乳业双雄盈利拐点已到，推荐伊利股份、蒙牛乳业。主线二，提价逻辑驱动，关注原材料成本下降、价格传导等超预期的弹性机会，推荐安琪酵母、洽洽食品、涪陵榨菜。主线三，大单品&渠道扩张驱动，关注成长股的逻辑兑现和超预期可能，推荐东鹏饮料、立高食品，关注甘源食品、妙可蓝多、盐津铺子、颐海国际。主线四，关注 2022 年疫情缓解幅度，有望带来依赖餐饮渠道和独立开店公司的投资机会，推荐安井食品、绝味食品，关注海天味业、巴比食品、千味央厨、日辰股份、桃李面包。

基金前二十大重仓股配置情况：从前二十大重仓股情况来看，基金配置的前二十大重仓股持股市值占基金股票投资市值延续上一季度的环比回落趋势。2021Q4 前二十大重仓股持股市值占基金股票投资市值比为17.34%，环比21Q3 下降1.20pct，持仓集中度有所下降。

品牌入局预制菜，品质升级成关键。消费者居家烹饪的意愿度高，预制菜有助于平衡消费者对食品品质和烹饪便捷度的双重要求。多品牌入局预制菜赛道，未来继续关注包装技术和配送模式升级，打造更好的品质。压力、失眠相关的情绪困扰受到重视，含有相关营养成分的功能性食品被消费者的关注。国内，新品品类正朝多样化趋势发展，需重视成分同质化和产品功能沟通难的问题。

The global Macarons market is evolving and a greater number of organisations are leveraging them to their advantage due to the demand. As the market is growing, many local and international players are having their focus onto the Macarons and claim the benefits of the growing opportunity. Hence, more than the threat of new entrants, existing players would be more of a threat during the forecasted period for this market. This also makes a good opportunity to new entrants to only focus on the particular macarons product type or flavor type and make their own niche.

Low calorie snack foods are aiding to more specific roles in food lives as customers continue to look for ways to balance nutrient-dense, healthy and purposeful snacking with the aim for emotionally satisfying and indulgent snacks, especially when indulgent snacks are of higher quality. Low calorie snacks have the potential to offer several health benefits without impacting the health as it is prepared from natural and free from ingredients. The base year of the global low calorie snacks market is 2020, wherein the forecast period is 2021-2030. The report scope includes various types of low calorie snacks, including sweet snacks, and savory snacks. The packaging types of low calorie snacks considered in the scope of the study include pouches, cans, jars, and others. By distribution channel, it is divided into business to business, and business to customer. The distribution channel of low calorie snacks considered in the scope of the study include business to business and business to customer.

Texturized plant-based meat or plant-based meat are structured plant-derived products designed to directly replace animal meat, including poultry and seafood. These products are obtained through texturized vegetable proteins (TVPs), which are formed through extrusion or fiber spinning technologies. •Different types of TVPs are available; they are used either as meat extenders or as meat analogs and include the following:

Meat substitutes are products that resemble actual meat in terms of taste, flavor, and appearance but are healthier than meat. Such products are increasingly being used as substitutes for regular meat and meat products. They are primarily composed of ingredients such as soy, wheat, and others. The report covers the detailed analysis of the trends, future estimations, and a thorough study of the global meat substitute market on the basis of product type, source, and category. It analyzes government regulations, policies, and patents to provide information on the current market trends and suggests future growth opportunities globally. Furthermore, the study highlights Porter’s five forces analysis to determine the factors affecting the market growth. These factors include raw material prices, intense competition, sources, manufacturers, and suppliers. To understand the market, drivers, restraints, and opportunities are explained in the report. Furthermore, it includes the revenue generated by the meat substitute market from the sales of meat substitute products across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

根据魔镜数据，2021 年 12 月阿里系休闲食品行业线上销售额达 92.2 亿元，同比降 2.0%。拆分量价来看，销售量同比降 11.7%，销售均价同比增加 11.0%，价增量跌。分子行业来看，2021 年 12 月子行业销售额巧克力类增长最快，同比增48.4%。三只松鼠、百草味销售额提升主要由于均价增长；良品铺子则量价齐降。休闲食品行业 CR3 环比降 1.77pct 至 15.6%，行业集中度有所下降。

12 月阿里线上电商数据披露，我们重点对白酒、乳制品、调味品、保健食品、休闲食品及奶粉等子板块线上销售情况进行分析。阿里渠道数据显示，2021 全年依旧不改量减价增趋势，但量减幅度大于价增幅度，多数板块销售额有所下滑。单12 月来看，主要板块线上需求依旧疲软。