白酒的周期主要由“品牌化大周期+经济周期+白酒自身周期（茅台价格周期+ 渠道库存周期）”决定。长期视角，白酒行业品牌化大周期仍在持续演进之中，主要依据有二：①2016 年以来，上市酒企整体收入增速表现好于全行业，市场份额从非上市酒企向上市酒企加速集中；②中高端品牌白酒的成长性更优， 2016-2018 年收入年复合增速次高端（42%）＞高端（34%）＞大众高端（19%）＞大众普通（5%）。中短期视角，以茅台为标杆的价格周期和行业库存周期依然较为良性，价格中枢存在持续上移的可能，预计未来整个白酒行业的周期波动相比上一轮周期将不断弱化，稳健性有望贯穿全年，市场加速集中，龙头表现优于行业，量稳价升与稳健成长或将成为新一轮趋势。

在逐步告别总量增长后，食饮行业逐步迈入结构红利期，增长逻辑的转换加速改变行业竞争格局，名酒企业依靠品牌高度，食品巨头仰仗供应链优势，不断巩固自身行业龙头地位，估值溢价即源于此，建议投资者继续加买龙头，掘金大食代！展望下半年，白酒估值修复行情之后，更看需求长逻辑推动的估值切换，其中高端白酒景气度最高；食品板块需求韧性足，龙头走向超级定价权，乳业调味品最为明显，同时关注左侧品种布局机会。报告附上对龙头企业建立经营壁垒的思考，探究估值溢价的本源，推荐阅读！ 

白酒龙头净利润增速变动趋势同步于 GDP 增速变动趋势；食品龙头净利润增速变动趋势滞后于 GDP 增速变动趋势，且抗周期能力强。

2019年：上半年价格走低，主要是供需两方面影响，供给端养殖户增加、天气原因导致小龙虾集中上市，需求端经济下行、世界杯效应消失，消费回归理性，导致暂时的供大于求价格走低。2019 下半年随着稻虾结束，各种湖虾、野虾产量也会急剧减少，7 月份小龙虾价格可能会缓慢回升。 

The global bakers yeast market was valued at USD 2009.08 million in 2017, and is expected to reach USD 2707.26 million by 2023, at a CAGR of 5.1%, during the forecast period, 2018- 2023. The increasing demand from the end-user sectors, such as food and beverages, is significantly contributing to the growth of the yeast market. There is a huge market for bakers yeast, as it is extensively used for enhancing the quality of bakery goods. Several players are introducing food and beverages using yeast varieties in bakery products. For instance, in 2014, Dunkin' Donuts launched four new bakery sandwiches and all the bakery sandwiches are made-to-order and served oven-toasted on a French roll, bagel, or croissant. Moreover, the increasing demand for organic yeast offerings is one of the key trends in the yeast market. Organic food ingredients are gaining traction, owing to the health benefits associated with organic products. Several key vendors are launching organic yeast, for example, Biospringer (Lesaffre) launched Springer Organic Baker’s Yeast Extract in 2016.

The Europe beer market report exclusively focuses on four types of beer, namely ale, lager, stout & porter, malt, and others. The price categories of beer included in the scope of our study are economic, premium, and super-premium. Craft beers are considered in the super-premium category. The production methods used for brewing beer have been considered to differentiate the Europe beer market in terms of quantity and styles. Macro, micro, and craft are the three key breweries studies in the report, and the market estimations for these categories have been made for the period of 2018–2025. Packaging is a vital component in the alcohol industry; hence, this factor has been examined in the study across four categories, namely glass, PET bottle, metal can, and others.

The Chinese beverage manufacturing subsector’s revenue registered a significant drop of 7.8% y/y in 2017, mainly due to decreased sales of low-end products. At end-December 2017, the number of lossmaking enterprises in the beverage subsector jumped by 18.1% to 666. This was 9.9% of the total number of beverage producers, up from 8.1% at the same time of 2016. The total losses of these lossmaking companies in 2017 was RMB 7.9bn – a rise of 4.5% y/y.

从宏观经济背景来看，市场不确定性和避险情绪由于5 月以来再趋紧张的中美贸易战影响再度攀升，双边摩擦的升级加大市场波动，对相关企业后续盈利情况产生更大的不确定性，食品饮料行业必选消费的防御属性以及历史上较高的盈利稳定性，成为资金很好的避风港。食品饮料作为行业中具有稳定高ROE 的代表，表明行业内企业具有更强的竞争力和盈利力，而持续高ROE 的企业通常也需要稳定较高的成长来实现，这种稳定性在当下也有望获得更高的估值溢价。

目前增量向存量市场过渡，进入剩者为王时代，行业营收11 年CAGR 为15.6%，产量11 年CAGR 为5.3%，产量增速从之前两位数下降至个位数甚至负增长。规模以上酒企数量11 年增长不明显甚至有下降趋势，利润总额11 年CAGR 为21.3%。行业CR5 占比不到20%，相比国外烈酒行业CR5 占比60%，仍有较大提升空间。

白酒文化历史悠久，通过回顾白酒行业市场化运作之后三十年中离当前最近的这十年（2009-2018 年），我们希望能够探寻龙头企业的成长史，对于白酒行业的过去、现在和未来提供更深刻的理解。在金融危机的影响下，白酒行业的景气度从2008 年下半年开始出现了明显的回落，但宏观政策对于经济的托底效应拉动了白酒的消费需求，在白酒行业2009年以来的复苏过程中扮演了至关重要的角色。这一年五粮液公司深化改革，大力度解决关联交易；洋河股份上市，树立改革典范，打造蓝色经典传奇。本周我们将复盘白酒行业复苏的2009 年。