警惕行业基本面不达预期。宏观经济已经持续放缓，绝大多数消费行业跟随减速。白酒上市公司增速与真实消费偏离难持续，警惕三、四季度行业或个股的走弱信号。 

食品饮料板块避险价值凸显。季度居民消费支出数据显示，18年中国居民人均可支配收入进一步提升，截止3Q18，人均消费支出增速为6.3%，远高于17年水平。凯度城镇居民快消品数据也显示，在遭遇了17年底至18年初的增速放缓后，城镇购物者的快速消费品总支出于3Q18增长了6.3％，创下年内新高，也是2017年以来的第二高季度增速。其中包装食品和饮料板块增速明显企稳反弹，由年初低点的1.4%上升至3.5%左右。我们判断，食品饮料需求端的大环境相较18年同期有一定程度的改善。

高端：茅台景气周期未见改变趋势，下半年仍处卖方市场，但预计量增价稳，五泸价格上行将受到阶段性压制，因此预计19H2价将优先于量，但对于量并不悲观。次高端：受益于高端景气持续，规模将持续扩容，但增长降档、品牌分化加大应是大概率事件。大众酒：行业整体竞争加剧，突出重围需品牌、渠道、治理结构三要素紧密结合、缺一不可。上半年估值端盈利端双重修复的戴维斯双击推动板块领跑市场，目前看估值修复已进入尾声，我们认为下半年白酒板块将逐渐进入估值切换、时间换空间的慢牛行情。

市场表现：1H19 食品饮料表现大幅超越市场。19 年1-6 月食品饮料板块股价上涨57%，大幅超越沪深300（24%）约33pct，在申万一级子行业中排名第一。分子行业来看，白酒一支独秀，以+72%的涨幅获得食品饮料超额收益。食品饮料整体PE 约28.6 倍，较18 年末提升29%，预计19 年净利增长22%，两者共同作用，年初至今板块股价大涨57%。从个股涨跌幅看，白酒整体表现较好，成为最大赢家。从基金重仓持股情况看，1Q19食品饮料配置比例回升至7.4%的高点，预计二季度末，基金持仓食品饮料比例可能再创新高。

2019 年上半年食品饮料涨幅排名第1，涨61.0%，其中白酒涨77.6%，遥遥领先，调味品、乳品表现也相对较好。白酒，名酒虹吸效应明显，市场预期从悲观修复至正常，品牌集中度提升，盈利能力增强，行业成长逻辑清晰。其他酒，受白酒挤压明显，整体需求低迷，适当关注黄酒龙头。乳业，虽然短期存在扰动因素，引发竞争加剧的担忧，但未来龙头竞争改善趋势不变。重点推荐：山西汾酒、贵州茅台、伊利股份。重点关注：安琪酵母。

The shift away from traditional dairy products, such as cow milk, toward plant-based alternatives revolves around health concerns, with an increasing number of consumers coming to believe that plant-based foods are healthier than animal-based foods. Furthermore, there is a growing consumer base that is motivated by animal welfare concerns, leading them to choose plant-based beverages, as well as other plant-based foods over animal-based products.

The market studied was valued at USD 7,625.77 billion in 2018, and is projected to reach USD 9,318.50 billion by 2024, at an estimated CAGR of 3.6% during the forecast period, 2019-2024 The consumer demand for convenient, natural, nutritious, and healthy on-the-go snack options is the primary attribute for the sales of chocolate milk across the world. The changing lifestyle of consumers and inclination toward the healthy lifestyle is boosting the growth of the market. Hence, chocolate milk, being the healthier and nutritional option, is witnessing increasing demand.

A beverage stabilizer is additives that prevent degradation in beverages. The beverage stabilizer market is analyzed and estimated in accordance with the impacts of the drivers, restraints, and opportunities. The period studied in this report is 2018–2025. The global beverage stabilizer market is segmented into product type, beverage type and region. The product type segment is further divided into gum Arabic, carboxymethyl cellulose, xanthan gum, carrageenan, pectin, and others. The other segmentation includes alginate and starch. Based on beverage type, it is divided into fruit drinks, dairy beverages, soft drinks, alcoholic beverages, and others. The other segment includes ready-to-drink (RTD) beverages and vegetable juice. The region-wise divisions are North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

纵观软饮品类的发展历程，近年消费偏好逐渐向清淡化、健康性演变。瓶装水天然健康，富含微量元素，具有一定保健功效，迎合当下消费者对于软饮的需求，乳品龙头伊利也发布公告拟布局天然矿泉水产品。而国内对于软饮细分品类的研究不多，本篇报告试图从行业规模的增长点、竞争格局及代表企业的分析以及伊利跨界运作计划的讨论三方面展开叙述。