9 月末以来，餐饮旅游板块随大盘反弹，国旅、首旅、锦江等龙头表现突出。10月进入三季报披露期，叠加宏观政策利好预期，有望进一步催化绩优股行情，继续看好绩优龙头组合：宋城演艺、中国国旅、首旅酒店/锦江股份。此外，国有景区、索道降价或将深化，利空自然景区板块；出境游旺季表现平淡，预计难有超预期表现。 

航空数据：8月航空公司运营数据显示国际航线运载量仍呈现快速增长，国际航班同比增速仍高于港澳台地区航班，港澳台地区运载量增速环比略有提升，五月份航班运载量/订座量数据增速均出现环比小幅收窄。根据四大航8月份最新数据显示，整体航班载客量数据快速增长，国际航班同比增速仍高于港澳台地区航班，但港澳台增速有所提升。根据CAAC数据，五月份整体订座量相比去年同期增速稳健，但较上月增速已出现收窄现象，整体运载量国际航线及港澳台均出现增速小幅下降，国际航班整体放缓更加显著。

The Global Contract Catering Market is undergoing a drastic change wherein companies and institutions alike are looking for initiatives that enable them to focus their energy and resources on their core capabilities and goals. In recent years, the cost-cutting culture has prompted many organizations to outsource most of their non-core tasks, including food service, to service providers.

国内两大游乐设施代表企业中山金马、文旅科近期将分别通过直接、间接方式登陆 A 股。2017 年我国游乐设施行业收入估计在 240 亿人民币以上，根据美国经验，游乐设施行业在成熟阶段仍然能保持大个位数可观增长。展望未来，高科技游乐设施是国内主题公园的发展方向。我们认为，中山金马在上市后有望在保持机械式游乐设施领域优势地位的同时，借助资本市场快速向高科技设施赛道切换；而文旅科技在曲线上市后有望借助资本平台获得发展新动力。本周继续重点推荐免税行业巨头中国国旅，酒店行业龙头首旅酒店、锦江股份，景区板块演艺龙头宋城演艺、海洋公园龙头海昌海洋公园、休闲景区稀缺标的中青旅，餐饮板块食品及餐饮双主业驱动的广州酒家，其他自然景区股建议关注黄山旅游、峨眉山 A、三特索道、桂林旅游、丽江旅游、天目湖等。 

社服板块作为朝阳行业的代表，仍然保持较高速的增长。①行业数据：除了酒店受到差旅因素影响，增速略放缓外，其他行业仍然保持了正常增速，出境游+15%，年免税行业提速，北京上海和三亚免税营收增长 30+%。②公司数据：2018 年上半年社服板块表现强劲，超过50%的公司收入增速高于 10%，其中腾邦国际收入增速 82%，中国国旅收入增速 68%；三分之一的公司归母利润超 40%，其中新智认知归母利润增速达 55%，中国国旅归母利润增速 48%。

Thailand's tourism industry is one of the best developed in the world and in the Asia-Pacific region in particular. The growth prospects of the market are exceptionally bright with the country have firmly established itself as a premier tourism destination catering to all types of travellers in all budget categories. With very strong growth potential and a long-standing reputation, the tourism industry in Thailand is well developed with a resilient reputation. The hotel market is diverse and competitive, particularly in the most established destinations, including Phuket and Bangkok. Thailand continues to attract investor interest with hotel developers drawn by rising visitor numbers and a growing list of new and established tourist sites.

Singapore's tourism industry benefits largely from its strategic location at the heart of Asia Pacific. It will continue to leverage its strong network of infrastructure for sea, road and air travel maintaining its position as a stopover destination in the region. The city-state, however, offers a diversified range of activities for tourists beyond this. Combined with a dynamic hotel sector offering, Singapore will continue to be an attractive place for investors.

Russia has enormous unexploited potential as a tourism destination; however, the structural challenges facing developers are commensurate with the rewards on offer. Outside of St Petersburg and Moscow, transport infrastructure is underdeveloped and there is only limited awareness of the attractions on offer. Corruption is a major barrier to private investors, as are bureaucratic hurdles which make new developments time consuming and costly. Despite these barriers, Russia remains an attractive market as inbound arrivals are increasing and the government is taking steps to develop tourism related infrastructure.

OTA国际对标：标品化经营与并购提升市占率。互联网企业高度依赖流量与资本生存，并购是实现市占率提升的重要路径。原Priceline(现更名为Booking)2005年通过收购booking.com实现了对欧洲市场的占领，Expedia2015年收购Orbitz后EBITDA增加2.64亿美元。境外休闲游发展程度高于国内，消费者对机酒的需求量远大于成熟的旅游产品，因此境外OTA以标品化经营为主，机酒业务收入超过90%。境内OTA仍处于抢占市场的发展初期，为实现流量充分变现，需要通过旅游产品满足消费者长尾需求。未来随行业集中度和自由行渗透率提升，我们预计国内OTA将逐渐走向分化，龙头将向标品化输出方向发展，其余中小OTA精耕细分市场。