The Global Contract Catering Market is undergoing a drastic change wherein companies and institutions alike are looking for initiatives that enable them to focus their energy and resources on their core capabilities and goals. In recent years, the cost-cutting culture has prompted many organizations to outsource most of their non-core tasks, including food service, to service providers.

国内两大游乐设施代表企业中山金马、文旅科近期将分别通过直接、间接方式登陆 A 股。2017 年我国游乐设施行业收入估计在 240 亿人民币以上，根据美国经验，游乐设施行业在成熟阶段仍然能保持大个位数可观增长。展望未来，高科技游乐设施是国内主题公园的发展方向。我们认为，中山金马在上市后有望在保持机械式游乐设施领域优势地位的同时，借助资本市场快速向高科技设施赛道切换；而文旅科技在曲线上市后有望借助资本平台获得发展新动力。本周继续重点推荐免税行业巨头中国国旅，酒店行业龙头首旅酒店、锦江股份，景区板块演艺龙头宋城演艺、海洋公园龙头海昌海洋公园、休闲景区稀缺标的中青旅，餐饮板块食品及餐饮双主业驱动的广州酒家，其他自然景区股建议关注黄山旅游、峨眉山 A、三特索道、桂林旅游、丽江旅游、天目湖等。 

社服板块作为朝阳行业的代表，仍然保持较高速的增长。①行业数据：除了酒店受到差旅因素影响，增速略放缓外，其他行业仍然保持了正常增速，出境游+15%，年免税行业提速，北京上海和三亚免税营收增长 30+%。②公司数据：2018 年上半年社服板块表现强劲，超过50%的公司收入增速高于 10%，其中腾邦国际收入增速 82%，中国国旅收入增速 68%；三分之一的公司归母利润超 40%，其中新智认知归母利润增速达 55%，中国国旅归母利润增速 48%。

Thailand's tourism industry is one of the best developed in the world and in the Asia-Pacific region in particular. The growth prospects of the market are exceptionally bright with the country have firmly established itself as a premier tourism destination catering to all types of travellers in all budget categories. With very strong growth potential and a long-standing reputation, the tourism industry in Thailand is well developed with a resilient reputation. The hotel market is diverse and competitive, particularly in the most established destinations, including Phuket and Bangkok. Thailand continues to attract investor interest with hotel developers drawn by rising visitor numbers and a growing list of new and established tourist sites.

Singapore's tourism industry benefits largely from its strategic location at the heart of Asia Pacific. It will continue to leverage its strong network of infrastructure for sea, road and air travel maintaining its position as a stopover destination in the region. The city-state, however, offers a diversified range of activities for tourists beyond this. Combined with a dynamic hotel sector offering, Singapore will continue to be an attractive place for investors.

Russia has enormous unexploited potential as a tourism destination; however, the structural challenges facing developers are commensurate with the rewards on offer. Outside of St Petersburg and Moscow, transport infrastructure is underdeveloped and there is only limited awareness of the attractions on offer. Corruption is a major barrier to private investors, as are bureaucratic hurdles which make new developments time consuming and costly. Despite these barriers, Russia remains an attractive market as inbound arrivals are increasing and the government is taking steps to develop tourism related infrastructure.

OTA国际对标：标品化经营与并购提升市占率。互联网企业高度依赖流量与资本生存，并购是实现市占率提升的重要路径。原Priceline(现更名为Booking)2005年通过收购booking.com实现了对欧洲市场的占领，Expedia2015年收购Orbitz后EBITDA增加2.64亿美元。境外休闲游发展程度高于国内，消费者对机酒的需求量远大于成熟的旅游产品，因此境外OTA以标品化经营为主，机酒业务收入超过90%。境内OTA仍处于抢占市场的发展初期，为实现流量充分变现，需要通过旅游产品满足消费者长尾需求。未来随行业集中度和自由行渗透率提升，我们预计国内OTA将逐渐走向分化，龙头将向标品化输出方向发展，其余中小OTA精耕细分市场。

中央厨房有望提升15pct的餐饮利润率：中央厨房广义上涵盖了制作熟食、生制及热半成品，并负责配送到餐饮门店的大小作坊、厂房。中央厨房的优势较为明显，食材规模化集采、取得增值税抵扣票据、减少厨师人力和后厨面积有望直接带来13pct的利润率提升；另外，中央厨房有利于产品的更新迭代、利于提升品质控制，同时仓配一体化有望减少30%的配送成本。

将美团拆分为四大业务板块（餐饮外卖、酒旅业务、到店业务、新业务及其他板块），详细梳理了各版块中可能影响到盈利能力的相关变量，并对变量的演化方向进行了分析讨论。我们认为美团点评有望于2020年起实现盈利，且基于梅特卡夫定律，其后盈利能力有望迅速提升。

最优赛道：火锅高速增长，市场集中度仍很低。①中餐2017年总营收达31,920亿元，市场份额达80.5%。预计未来五年CAGR8.9%。②2017年前五大火锅餐厅经营者仅占市场份额5.5%，海底捞（6862.HK）和呷哺呷哺（0520.HK）多年规模排在前十，海底捞占比达2.2%，竞争优势明显。优秀的管理机制，不同的竞争赛道。①海底捞定位中高档，极致的服务已经成为现象级消费体验，门店分散。②呷哺呷哺是休闲小火锅赛道挖掘者，欲借凑凑（定位比海底捞更高）实现弯道超车。门店大部分在北方城市。③两家公司创始人即大股东，股权结构明晰，董事会以创始团队为主。机制好，管理优秀。