回顾看，2022 年中国经济超预期走弱，直接原因是疫情反复、地产疲软、政策“出了很多、效果很弱”、美联储加息、俄乌冲突，本质原因则是需求不足、信心不足。展望看，2023 年事情正在起变化：海外看，美国通胀已趋于下行，美联储加息周期正接近尾声，全球经济衰退风险加大，俄乌冲突边际影响正减弱；国内看，疫情防控政策正不断优化，稳地产政策正持续加码，最新信号也指向政策将偏积极、偏放松、偏刺激、全力稳增长。具体看，2023 年中国经济和资产价格，很可能围绕6 大均衡展开，即：疫情优化VS 消费修复；地产放松VS 地产修复；中国经济触底回升（内需）VS 全球经济逐步衰退（外需）；政策手段VS 政策效果；短期目标VS 长期目标；地缘博弈VS 中美关系。

粗纱周期近尾端，电子纱底部回暖已启动。1）2013年以来粗纱每一轮周期历时约3-3.5年，本轮周期从20Q3开始，已历时2.5年，已近周期尾端。目前粗纱周期位置为底部（价格低位）、偏左侧（库存高位）。粗纱库存已连续两个月下降，且本轮周期库存结构更健康（龙头占比高、中高端产品占比高）。2）电子纱价格、盈利、库存均处低位，预计目前全行业库存不足1个月，10月以来电子纱价格已涨约30%，底部已现，但仍处低位（小厂刚恢复到微利状态）。电子纱供需格局更优，预计价格弹性更大。

2022年行业整体周期下行，叠加宏观经济疲弱，众多公司出现估值业绩双杀。展望2023年，以手机零部件为代表的产业链细分环节将进入补库存阶段，有望见到存货下降及周转率提升。需求侧，考虑到疫情影响的边际转弱，消费信心逐步回暖，以消费电子为代表的下游将有望重回增长轨道。推荐景气度有望复苏的比亚迪电子、舜宇光学科技。

Touchless doors are automatically operated using various sensors such as infrared and photoelectric sensors. Infrared doors work by detecting temperature changes. For instance, when someone passes, infrared sensors detect the warm temperature and operate accordingly. The system consists of transmitter and receiver pairs in the front and back of the door. Automatic units have applications in various places such as luxury residential housing, commercial spaces, and others. Factors such as energysaving, ease of operation, maintaining security, fast and accurate, cable-free, and others fuel the demand for these doors. Heavy investments by the government in construction and the growth in residential, commercial, and business sectors create future opportunities for touchless door activation. However, the high maintenance costs associated with touchless door activation systems may prove to be a barrier to market growth.

Virtual visit consultations involve the use of audio, video, or other electronic communications with medical professionals to review medical records or data for diagnosis, treatment, follow-up, or patient education. During virtual visit consultations, the medical history and personal health information of a patient may be discussed with other healthcare professionals using interactive video, audio, and telecommunications technology. Virtual visits may also include electronic transmission of medical records, photo images, personal health information, or other data between patient/guardians and healthcare providers.

Transmission fluids are essential to improve vehicles’ performance as transmission transfers the power generated in engines to vehicles’ wheels. Therefore, transmission fluids enable the smooth functioning of transmission assemblies. Transmission fluids act as lubricants and protect the moving parts, such as clutches, gearboxes, propeller shafts, differentials and axles, and live axles, when transmission assemblies are in operation. Transmission fluids are essential for automatic transmission as they deliver engine power to the wheels. If transmission fluids are not maintained up to a certain level, it can lead to vehicle malfunctioning and gearbox jamming, thus affecting the proper functioning of vehicles.

The World Health Organization (WHO) classifies digital health as the use of digital technologies and health innovation to promote and protect public health and wellbeing. Digital health initiatives leverage the power of connectivity solutions, computing platforms, sensors, and software to support clinical decisions and improve the ability to accurately diagnose and treat diverse health conditions for better health outcomes. Digital health can be further categorized under health information technology (IT), personalized medicine, mobile health (mHealth), and telehealth and telemedicine. Telehealth entails the use of electronic and telecommunications technologies and services by healthcare professionals and establishments to support remote healthcare services, patient and professional health-related education, and public health administration.

VR性能迭代和AR商用落地驱动上游零部件技术迭代。核心零部件整体迭代路径和终局技术清晰：1）光学上，VR和AR分别向超短焦和光波导升级；2）Micro LED为终极显示方案，Micro OLED和LCOS分别作为VR和AR过渡期方案；3）芯片在算力和功耗的平衡中迭代，中短期自研定制趋势增强，未来或向云XR演进；4）感知交互升级重心在于更丰富的功能，手势识别、眼动追踪等即将搭载上机。中短期内关注产线建设和客户订单情况，长期重视终极技术研发实力。

美国经济先行指标和同步指标回落。美国产能利用率已经到达高点，意味着美国工业制造业对GDP的贡献到达顶点。随着利率水平上行，新建住宅下滑。PMI指数快速回落，但依然在扩张区间。社会零售持续下滑。美国经济同步指标增速下滑至1.5%，而继续下滑至0附近就意味着美国经济进入衰退。衰退已经进入视野，从通胀到衰退是2023年-2024年金融市场资产变化最重要的变量。

住建部发文批准《建筑与市政工程防水通用规范》发布，自2023 年4 月1 日起实施，为强制性工程建设规范，全文须严格执行。新规在防水设计工作 年限、防水材料、工程等级界定、防水层数等多个方面作出了更为规范和科 学的界定，在完善行业规范的同时，直接增加了防水材料的使用量，我们测 算仅建筑工程的屋面、室内以及地下等部位防水市场空间有望提升65%左 右，若考虑外墙和金属屋面新增需求则空间更大。此外新规提高了对于防水 产品质量的要求，我们预计行业内落后产能加速淘汰，龙头市占率加速提升， 重点推荐东方雨虹、科顺股份、北新建材、三棵树等，建议关注凯伦股份。