苹果首次搭载潜望式镜头，有望引领行业风向标：智能手机摄像清晰度要求日益提升，潜望式镜头通过微棱镜实现横向光学变焦，同时满足高变焦与轻薄化，是行业重要发展方向，并由外变焦方案逐步发展为内变焦方案，未来可向双棱镜+双潜望模式发展。2023 年下半年即将发布的iPhone 15 系列将首次采用潜望式长焦镜头，带动摄像头模组缩小、减薄技术发展，有望凭借核心技术及供应链改革重燃潜望式镜头热度。

在货币政策调控机制逐渐优化、金融市场趋于深化的情况下，超储逐年下降，央行反复强调超储率已经难以准确反映流动性情况，在利率市场化化改革的背景下，超储重要性进一步下降。而且超储并非央行中介目标，超储水平/流动性状态是央行致力于中介目标进行操作后的结果，央行会相机抉择、随行就市，但不是机械操作。央行也会盯市，但面对市场利率变化的操作应对，还是围绕着中介目标展开，所谓流动性合理充裕的状态，可能是一个宽泛的概念和范畴，这个尺度由宏观形势决定。

除行业自身供需影响外，美元利率对于半导体行业景气度和股价拐点都有极强的影响，在宏观波动较大的情况下尤为明显。目前可以看到虽然半导体行业依然处在衰退中，但市场预期已经提前行业基本面，来到复苏阶段。从年初至今费城半导体指数或申万半导体指数已经出现一定的涨幅，我们认为影响行业预期的核心因素在于美联储的 “鸽”或“鹰”,Higher&Longer 还是Lower&Shorter 将直接影响半导体行业基本面和市场走势。

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