Online video platform (OVP) is a digital service that allows users to upload, manage, stream, and monetize video content over the internet. These platforms provide tools for video hosting, encoding, playback, and distribution, often including features like analytics, content management, and user engagement. Examples of OVPs include YouTube, Vimeo, and Dailymotion.

Grocery stores offer non-perishable food products, which are packaged in cans, bottles, and boxes, as well as fresh produce food products, such as fruits, vegetables, and herbs, provides essential nutrients and flavors for daily meals. The economic indicators that have a major impact on the sales of grocery products from online retail channels are the growing global population, internet penetration, urbanization, per capita income, and mobile subscription in developing countries.

A corporation that pools money from many investors and invests it in securities such as stocks, bonds, and short-term debt is known as a mutual fund. The portfolio of a mutual fund refers to all of its holdings. Mutual fund shares are purchased by investors. Each share reflects the ownership interest of the shareholders in the fund and the revenue it produces

Loyalty management can loosely be defined as the strategy, tools, and tactics of how the employer or organization acquires, engages, and retains customers, which helps the brand target the correct target market and then gives benefits, experiences, and rewards that drive ahead the long-term engagement.

消费行业：9月社零可选品增速回暖，高基数下家电类增速边际放缓－事件点评

消费品行业：风格切换助力消费－10月港股消费行业观察

流动性｜资金延续乐观判断

美联储 2025 年 9 月重启降息，预计年内后续以及 2026 年美联储降息将持续，而欧央行降息放缓、日本央行仍在加息进程中的背景下，美欧、美日利差预计将进一步收窄。同时，美国就业市场走弱、经济动能放缓预计也将导致美元走弱。此外，特朗普致力于各项激进贸易、财政等政策以及不断干预美联储独立性等措施，也导致美元信用有所受损、避险属性有所减弱。我们预计 2025 年年内美元将继续弱势，需警惕的是若后续美国通胀意外升温以及美国经济意外好转，导致美联储放缓降息，则美元或存在阶段性反弹的可能性。

货币改革和马歇尔计划稳定西德。二战后德国面临战时债务和战后赔偿，且由于二战期间德国货币超发，战败后帝国马克又几乎失去购买力。1948 年西德实行货币改革，93.5%的旧货币退出流通领域，消除货币过剩和通胀风险；同期马歇尔计划向西德注资约 16 亿美元，重点扶持 煤炭、钢铁等基础工业，推动西德经济复苏。苏占区因大规模拆除设备，产能恢复落后于西德。四分德国到两分德国迎来窗口期。二战后美苏英法谋划四分德国，分割领土、政治、经济。1947 冷战开始，美、英占区合并为双占区；1948 年法占区加入、成立三占区。1949 年 9 月，德意 志联邦共和国成立，定都波恩；10 月，德意志民主共和国成立，定都柏林。在冷战的保护色下， 西德践行路德维希·艾哈德提出的社会市场经济，兼顾自由竞争+社会保障，迎来“经济奇迹”。

2025年以来，以中国科技叙事反转为起点，A股开启了一波强劲的牛市行情。进入9月，主要指数上涨势头趋缓，市场波动加剧，关于牛市回调的担心升温。从历史看，牛市并不意味着股价单边上涨，市场全力奔跑后需要休整，为下一轮上涨积蓄能量。牛市不乏大级别回调，回调幅度可能在10%以上，而这恰恰为投资者进入市场、把握牛市机遇提供了最佳窗口。我们在《牛市的成因是什么？牛市还能否延续？》中总结了牛市形成的四个基本要素，认为本轮牛市还将继续延续。本文则从历史复盘分析历次牛市回调的原因，总结提炼回调的特征，并提出投资者应对的建议。