2019 年在强劲的基本面支撑下，食品饮料行业在白酒板块的带领下明显跑赢上证指数。截止11 月25 日，板块PE(TTM)较过去十年均值溢价8%。展望2020 年，食品板块是我们在食品饮料行业细分领域中的首选，我们看好餐饮渠道的成长性，肉制品、速冻食品等行业后周期提价弹性，同时估值仍具备向上修复可能性。白酒: 不确定的外围环境中追求需求稳定性更高的高端白酒，推荐贵州茅台/五粮液/泸州老窖。大众品：优选低估值高弹性，具备市占率提升潜力的肉质品龙头，速冻品龙头安井食品/三全食品，高端化加速推进的重庆啤酒，机制改善/餐饮渠道维系高增长的中炬高新。

日本消费社会研究专家三浦展的一书《第四消费时代》，近期流传颇广。书中将社会的消费分为四个时代，其中第三消费时代的特点是品牌化、个性化，第四消费时代回归理性，讲究性价比。日本社会结构呈现橄榄型，中产阶级比较多，消费时代划分的非常的清晰。而我国人口基数大，基尼系数偏高，我们认为中国的第三、第四消费时代同时并存，光瓶酒就是个很好的代表。

我们结合中金独家商超肉制品消费数据，以及中美欧三地农业部权威数据，定期跟踪双汇发展和万洲国际在中美欧三地市场动态。商超数据显示，双汇肉制品9月销量和销售额同比+3.6%和+6.6%，销量表现略逊于行业，与主要竞争对手表现相近；19 年10 月中国22 省市生猪均价36.07 元/公斤，同比+162%，环比+29%；美国9 月生猪7.4 元/公斤，同比+10.4%，环比-18.5%，9 月中美生猪价差约276%。9 月单月中国进口美国猪肉量继续大幅增长，同比+294%，环比-27.6%。10 月美国猪肉均价8.86 元/公斤，同比-12.1%，环比+6.4%；欧洲10 月猪肉均价14.22元/公斤，同比+32.3%，环比+0.4%。

9 月，食品三大子行业工业增加值增速较上月呈“两降一升”态势。食品制造业工业增加值同比增长 4.2%，农副食品加工业增加值同比下降 1.2%，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业工业增加值同比增长 7.6%。食品工业主要产品中，乳制品与白酒产量均实现了同比增长，但增速有所放缓；鲜、冷藏肉产量同比下跌，跌幅进一步扩大。行业固定资产投资总体低迷，其中，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业固定资产同比增长 4.7%，食品制造业固定资产投资同比下滑3.0%，农副食品加工业固定资产投资同比减少 10.8%。

Turkey boasts one of the world’s highest per capita bread-consumption figures. Bread is the staple food for Turks, who consume it at breakfast, lunch and dinner. Rising health awareness and changing lifestyles have supported a shift to protein-based diets in major cities, but Ekmek – the traditional soft white bread – continues to account for 90% of the bread market. The production of bread, fresh pastry goods and cakes and the manufacture of grain mill products are the most fragmented segments of the Turkish food market. There are some 35,000 operating bakeries, of which just 1% are industrial bakeries, which account for 9% of the market. Consumers prefer their bread fresh, purchased from bread kiosks, little stores and publicly-owned bakeries.

The Philippines F&B sector is competitive despite its duality – most of the operating companies are small, but at the same time large corporations have significant market shares. Domestic and foreign producers compete to capture more of the growing domestic demand. Some subsectors such as beer, carbonated drinks, dairy products, and processed fruits and vegetables, are characterised by significant concentration, while others such as bottled water and bakery, are more fragmented.

Colombia’s food and beverage sector offers strong growth opportunities, benefitting from the better macroeconomic conditions in the country, growing disposable incomes, and higher spending by the rising middle class. Market players are looking not only at increasing their gains on the domestic market through diversification and introduction of new products in order to satisfy the emerging sophisticated demands of the population, but also at expanding their operations internationally. The most attractive foreign markets remain the countries from Latin America, but some companies are looking also at countries in Europe, Asia and North America.

2014Q1-2019Q3 调味品上市公司整体营收/归母净利润增速均值为 12%/26%，远优于同期肉制品、乳制品和啤酒的表现。随着经济增速中枢的系统性下移，调味品板块作为防御性突出的必选消费代表正在享受成长确定性带来的估值溢价。

我们近期走访了上海、北京共 27 家烟酒店及商超，就白酒价格表现、终端动销进行了草根调研，并与前两次调研数据进行对比分析，供各位投资者参考。

食品饮料板块走势依然强劲，年初至今涨幅为74.54%，同期沪深 300 指数涨幅为 29.73%。在申万 28 个行业板块中，食品饮料涨幅排名第 1。板块估值继续回升，食品饮料行业整体估值在所有申万一级行业中排第 6 位，多数子行业板块均呈上涨态势。其中白酒、其他酒类、调味发酵品板块涨幅最大。