从政策驱动到市场驱动，新能源汽车渗透率正加速提升：2021年全国新能源乘用车销量332.3万辆，渗透率15.5%， 新能源汽车销量及渗透率呈现快速增长态势，我们预计2022年国内新能源汽车销量有望突破650万辆，我们认为新 能源汽车产业发展阶段由“政策驱动”过渡到“市场驱动”。

从产品到渠道，华为全面赋能。智选模式下华为深度参与产品设计、营销及终端销售。华为鸿蒙车机是AITO 问界M5/M7 的核心亮点，智能驾驶并未搭载华为的高阶解决方案，但成本优势显著。华为在智能终问界M5 首战告捷，第二款车型问界M7 车机应用更丰富，能耗表现以及动力性能更强，我们预计问界M7 月稳态销量达8000 台左右。

高压快充有望成为下一阶段较优补能方案。需求端：随着快充功率不断提升，充满电时间有望降低到30 分钟以下，目前相比换电和大容量电池，能更好解决续航焦虑，拓宽电动车使用场景；技术端：提升快充功率可通过增大电压或者增大电流两种方式，高电压相较大电流方案综合效率、成本、技术提升难度等方面优势更明显，有望成为快充主流技术路线。800V 成为高压快充阶段性行业标准，后续将向上演进到1000-1500V。

据中国汽车流通协会，7 月汽车消费指数81.6，同比+36.9%，环比+1.1%。随着汽车供应逐步恢复，7 月经销商库存预警指数54.4%，同比+2.1 PCT，环比+4.9 PCT。由于2021年8 月的缺芯严重低迷，我们预计今年8 月产销同比实现高增长，可实现淡季不淡的良好局面。从供给端来看，7 月燃油车市场推出44 款新车型，其中有25 款符合消费升级的2.0 升排量车型，占比57%；而上半年的2.0升排量车型占比是28%，有望推动车市实现较高的产销增量。目前油价持续高位，叠加各主流厂商的推广积极性处于高位，新能源车市场有望全面加速，尤其看好自主品牌高性价比电动车持续放量。

相较于燃油车，我们认为中国品牌出海欧洲可靠产品、技术实力领先的电动车实现突破，考虑到挪威为众多中国品牌出海欧洲的第一站，我们将以中国品牌电动车在挪威市场的表现分析中国汽车品牌出海欧洲的可能表现。目前，挪威电动车高度普及，但市场竞争加剧、集中度逐步降低，中国品牌在此市场阶段可通过产品力抢占市场份额。目前国内已有比亚迪、蔚来、小鹏、名爵等多家品牌电动车出口挪威市场，车型覆盖轿车、SUV、MPV多种类别及价格带，在智能化配置、空间及性价比均有可观优势。此外，蔚来及小鹏移植了国内的线上+线下销售策略，打造了销售、服务和交付的一体化经营模式，提供良好的用户体验。目前，从EV注册量来看，中国品牌市占率迅速提升、在2022Q2已达11%，其中名爵及比亚迪已站稳脚跟，蔚来注册量增长迅速。我们认为中国车企有望以挪威为起点，复制在挪威的成功经验，向欧洲市场进行扩张建议关注已经在挪威市场占据一定份额的比亚迪及上汽集团；建议关注具有创新性销售模式、可提供良好用户体验的蔚来汽车及小鹏汽车。

In 2019, the domestic sales of heavy vehicles registered a third consecutive annual expansion due to the recovery of the Brazilian economy following the 2015-2016 recession. Output fell slightly by 0.1% y/y, while exports were down by 34.6% y/y in value and by 42.1% y/y in volume due to lower sales to Argentina. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to two-digit annual falls in output, domestic sales and exports of heavy vehicles. However, in 2021, the regional economic recovery led to a strong rebound in the demand for heavy vehicles. Domestic sales increased by 37.8% y/y in 2021, to 142,741 units, while export volume rose by 49.4% y/y to 34,934 units. This was accompanied by a solid 61% y/y expansion in heavy vehicle output, to 185,762 units. Output and domestic sales reported the largest volume for the 2016-2021 period, while exports reached the largest volume since 2018. Trucks accounted for the bulk of production, sales and exports in the heavy vehicle segment, being the main growth driver in 2021 as well.

All-Terrain Application Growth: ATVs are utilized for traveling in harsh environments off-road and on rugged terrains. Many current ATVs are developed with aggressive tires and steel rims or rubber track systems that allow mobility through thick mud, gumbo, clay, sand, snow, vegetation, timber, and climbing hills, among other terrains.

The Indonesian automotive market is highly concentrated, with a few players accounting for the bulk of sales. In 2021, the top three brands controlled 63% of new motor vehicle sales (PCs and CVs), while the top five accounted for 84%. Japanese manufacturers are dominant both in terms of production and sales as they enjoy strong brand awareness and have built extensive dealership networks across the country. In addition, most of them have local plants and benefit from Indonesia’s relatively cheap workforce and low taxes, which decrease their production costs. The European brands have negligible market share, as they are positioned mainly in the premium segment. Chinese automakers have pledged to aggressively enter the market, but, so far, their penetration has been limited.