据中国汽车流通协会，7 月汽车消费指数81.6，同比+36.9%，环比+1.1%。随着汽车供应逐步恢复，7 月经销商库存预警指数54.4%，同比+2.1 PCT，环比+4.9 PCT。由于2021年8 月的缺芯严重低迷，我们预计今年8 月产销同比实现高增长，可实现淡季不淡的良好局面。从供给端来看，7 月燃油车市场推出44 款新车型，其中有25 款符合消费升级的2.0 升排量车型，占比57%；而上半年的2.0升排量车型占比是28%，有望推动车市实现较高的产销增量。目前油价持续高位，叠加各主流厂商的推广积极性处于高位，新能源车市场有望全面加速，尤其看好自主品牌高性价比电动车持续放量。

相较于燃油车，我们认为中国品牌出海欧洲可靠产品、技术实力领先的电动车实现突破，考虑到挪威为众多中国品牌出海欧洲的第一站，我们将以中国品牌电动车在挪威市场的表现分析中国汽车品牌出海欧洲的可能表现。目前，挪威电动车高度普及，但市场竞争加剧、集中度逐步降低，中国品牌在此市场阶段可通过产品力抢占市场份额。目前国内已有比亚迪、蔚来、小鹏、名爵等多家品牌电动车出口挪威市场，车型覆盖轿车、SUV、MPV多种类别及价格带，在智能化配置、空间及性价比均有可观优势。此外，蔚来及小鹏移植了国内的线上+线下销售策略，打造了销售、服务和交付的一体化经营模式，提供良好的用户体验。目前，从EV注册量来看，中国品牌市占率迅速提升、在2022Q2已达11%，其中名爵及比亚迪已站稳脚跟，蔚来注册量增长迅速。我们认为中国车企有望以挪威为起点，复制在挪威的成功经验，向欧洲市场进行扩张建议关注已经在挪威市场占据一定份额的比亚迪及上汽集团；建议关注具有创新性销售模式、可提供良好用户体验的蔚来汽车及小鹏汽车。

In 2019, the domestic sales of heavy vehicles registered a third consecutive annual expansion due to the recovery of the Brazilian economy following the 2015-2016 recession. Output fell slightly by 0.1% y/y, while exports were down by 34.6% y/y in value and by 42.1% y/y in volume due to lower sales to Argentina. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to two-digit annual falls in output, domestic sales and exports of heavy vehicles. However, in 2021, the regional economic recovery led to a strong rebound in the demand for heavy vehicles. Domestic sales increased by 37.8% y/y in 2021, to 142,741 units, while export volume rose by 49.4% y/y to 34,934 units. This was accompanied by a solid 61% y/y expansion in heavy vehicle output, to 185,762 units. Output and domestic sales reported the largest volume for the 2016-2021 period, while exports reached the largest volume since 2018. Trucks accounted for the bulk of production, sales and exports in the heavy vehicle segment, being the main growth driver in 2021 as well.

All-Terrain Application Growth: ATVs are utilized for traveling in harsh environments off-road and on rugged terrains. Many current ATVs are developed with aggressive tires and steel rims or rubber track systems that allow mobility through thick mud, gumbo, clay, sand, snow, vegetation, timber, and climbing hills, among other terrains.

The Indonesian automotive market is highly concentrated, with a few players accounting for the bulk of sales. In 2021, the top three brands controlled 63% of new motor vehicle sales (PCs and CVs), while the top five accounted for 84%. Japanese manufacturers are dominant both in terms of production and sales as they enjoy strong brand awareness and have built extensive dealership networks across the country. In addition, most of them have local plants and benefit from Indonesia’s relatively cheap workforce and low taxes, which decrease their production costs. The European brands have negligible market share, as they are positioned mainly in the premium segment. Chinese automakers have pledged to aggressively enter the market, but, so far, their penetration has been limited.

汽车智能化和网联化推动汽车内外通信流量的快速增长，促使汽车变为移动终端或是移动基站，成为通信产业跨界赋能的天然结合点。 并且无线通信相关产业链（如通信基站、物联网产业链）一方面在技术具有延伸性乃至实现降维配套，另一方面具备领先的产能与服务 优势，具备跨界赋能的可行性。具体来说，“通信+汽车”涉及的产业链环节主要包括连接器、智能控制器、SoC、PCB、高精度定位、激 光雷达、车载模组、OBU/RSU及车载网关等。

综述：平淡7 月如预期，但增速并不平淡。进入7 月后，批发和零售都迎来一 波休息，在前期也扰动汽车板块，但伴随中下旬数据的修复，7 月表现并不像 此前市场担忧的那么弱。

基金对汽车行业持仓配置突破近2 年来季度新高，略微处于超配状态。2022Q2 公募基金对汽车行业的持仓总市值为1,069.1 亿元，持仓市值占比4.01%，环比Q1 季度提升1.35 个百分点，公募基金对汽车行业配置比例位列申万31 个一级行业排名第6 位，相比Q1 季度排名提升5位，按汽车行业自由流通市值占比衡量超低配情况来看，Q2 季度公募基金对汽车行业略微超配0.07 个百分点。

投资议：推荐机器人关节及其相关零部件。关节主要由减速器、 电机、控制器等部件组成，其中机器人厂商的减速器外购为主，控制 器自制为主。我们认为人形机器人中成本占比高、格局相对确定的关 节及其相关部件将率先爆发，考虑新能源汽车与人形机器人在三电系 统、传感系统、人机交互系统有相似或重合，特斯拉产业链上的核心 供应商也有望受益，推荐标的双环传动、拓普集团、绿的谐波（机械 团队覆盖），受益标的三花智控等。

淡季不淡，多家新能源车企7 月交付创历史新高。8 家新能源乘用车重 点车企7 月新能源汽车交付量合计95342 辆，同环比分别+109.63%/- 5.72%。7 月地方补贴较为密集退出+部分城市疫情反复+淡季等多重因 素叠加，干扰因素较多造成部分车企数据波动，但总体幅度仍然在正常 范围内。哪吒、零跑、埃安及极氪7 月月度销量创历史新高。8 月2 日，地平线与智驾科技MAXIEYE 宣布达成战略合作。双方将以地平线 高性能、开放易用、工具链完善的车规级AI 芯片征程5，以及MAXIEYE 领先的 自动驾驶软件算法能力、AI+汽车强工程化落地能力、丰富的量产经验为合力点， 加速L2++功能为代表的下一代智能驾驶方案量产落地。