产能拓展顺利，整体调降1.40-3.70 万元。根据特斯拉官方公众号最新价格，Model3 后轮驱动版本价格26.59 万元，调价1.40 万元，高性能版本最新价格34.99 万元，调降1.80 万元；ModelY 后轮驱动版本最新价格28.89 万元，调降2.80 万元，长续航版本最新价格35.79万元，调降3.70 万元，高性能版本最新价格39.79 万元，调降2.00万元。特斯拉本次价格整体调降在1.40-3.70 万元，考虑此次价格不可同享10 月给予消费者的7000 元保险补贴，实际调降幅度在0.7-3.0万元。此次价格调整我们认为主要原因在于，特斯拉上海工厂产能拓展顺利，8 月10 号上海1、2 期扩产完毕，当前月产能在8-9 万量，产能释放带动公司在手订单交付周期缩短，为保证工厂产能利用率、刺激销量，推出相关降价政策。

公司表示今明两年产量增速规划都在50%以上，交付量增速将略低于50%，主要由于公司为避免物流需求过于集中采取更平滑的物流策略，因此年底在途车辆将会增加，Q4 交付量可能低于产量，部分交付将延后至1Q23。整车方面推荐产品周期上行的长安汽车、长城汽车、上汽集团，相关标的有比亚迪、广汽集团、江淮汽车。汽车电子相关零部件供应商充分受益智能化进程加速，推荐拓普集团（智能底盘tier 0.5 供应商）、伯特利（EPB+线控制动）、星宇股份（智能车灯）、中鼎股份（空悬）、德赛西威（智能座舱系统）、科博达（灯控）。

Manufacture of commercial vehicles: Vans, lorries, over-the-road tractors for semi-trailers etc. Manufacture of buses, trolley-buses and coaches Manufacture of motor vehicle engines Manufacture of chassis fitted with engines Manufacture of other motor vehicles: Snowmobiles, golf carts, amphibious vehicles Fire engines, street sweepers, travelling libraries, armoured cars etc. Concrete-mixer lorries ATVs, go-carts and similar including race cars Factory rebuilding of motor vehicle engines

Manufacture of electric, diesel, steam and other rail locomotives Manufacture of self-propelled railway or tramway coaches, vans and trucks, maintenance or service vehicles Manufacture of railway or tramway rolling stock, not self-propelled: Passenger coaches, goods vans, tank wagons, self-discharging vans and wagons, workshop vans, crane vans, tenders etc. Manufacture of specialized parts of railway or tramway locomotives or of rolling stock: Bogies, axles and wheels, brakes and parts of brakes; hooks and coupling devices, buffers and buffer parts; shock absorbers; wagon and locomotive frames; bodies; corridor connections etc. Manufacture of mechanical and electromechanical signalling, safety and traffic control equipment for railways, tramways, inland waterways, roads, parking facilities, airfields etc. Manufacture of mining locomotives and mining rail cars Manufacture of railway car seats

Manufacture of diverse parts and accessories for motor vehicles: Brakes, gearboxes, axles, road wheels, suspension shock absorbers, radiators, silencers, exhaust pipes, catalytic converters, clutches, steering wheels, steering columns and steering boxes Manufacture of parts and accessories of bodies for motor vehicles: Safety belts, airbags, doors, bumpers Manufacture of car seats Manufacture of motor vehicle electrical equipment, such as generators, alternators, spark plugs, ignition wiring harnesses, power window and door systems, assembly of purchased gauges into instrument panels, voltage regulators, etc.

据中国摩托车商会数据，2022 年9 月国内250cc+中大排量摩托车销售6.60 万辆，同比+82.8%，环比-5.7%。2022 年1-9 月累计销售45.68 万辆，同比+63.4%。

汽车市场加速恢复，自主品牌市场份额持续提升，行业经济指标逐渐改善。据中汽协数据，我国9月汽车销量261万台，同比增长25.7%；1-9月累计汽车销量达到1947万台，同比增长4.4%，在促销费刺激政策下汽车销量持续恢复。9月自主品牌乘用车延续良好表现，市场份额已经达到50%。产销端的恢复使得行业经济指标持续改善，1-8月汽车制造业工业增加值同比增长4.5%；完成营业收入56984.5亿元，同比增长3.3%，由负转正；实现利润总额3162.8亿元，同比下降7.3%，降幅比1-7月收窄7.1个百分点；利润率为5.6%。

800V 有望成为中高端车型的主流方案。在快充方案中，高压充电以其低成本、轻量化、EMC 干扰低等优点，成为现阶段快充的主流路线。相比现阶段的400V 平台，800V 高压充电方案的充电时间几乎缩短到一半。但由于适配800V 的高压充电桩并未全面推行以及成本和技术等因素，目前的800V 架构仍需兼容400V 充电方案。

汽车线束是汽车电路的网络主体。汽车线束主要由线缆、端子、接插件及护套等组成。下游线束行业集中度高，2020 年线束行业CR3为70.9%，CR5为81.7%，随着国内自主品牌的崛起，国内主机厂逐步切换本土供应商，线束行业的国产替代空间较大。