龙头领先于行业恢复，更加关注盈利能力的提升。截至 2017 年年底，全国 国内啤酒产量同比-2.3%，但华润/青岛的销量分别同比+0.9%/+0.6%，龙头 企业相较行业的率先复苏，而同期整体行业产量同比下滑，可见地方小企业 生存空间进一步受到挤压，市场份额向龙头进一步聚拢。龙头企业在熬过行 业冰冻期后，CR5 的整体优势更为明显，在“大鱼吃小鱼”时代已过去，而 小鱼越来越少的情况下，怎样改善自身盈利能力成为各大巨头发展的主题

The global beer market report exclusively focuses on four types of beer namely, ale, lager, stout & porter, malt, and others. The categories of beer included in the scope of our study are popular-priced, premium, and super premium. Craft beers are considered in the super premium category in our study. The production methods used for brewing beer have been considered to differentiate the global beer market in terms of quantity and styles. Macro, micro, and craft are the three key breweries studies in the report, and the market estimations for these categories have been made for the period of 2018–2025. Packaging is a vital component in the alcohol industry; hence, this factor has been examined in the study across four categories namely, glass, PET bottle, metal can, and others.

Taiwanese electronic manufacturer Foxconn has announced an e-commerce platform to delivery fresh produce business through a one-stop food solution service.I-Mei Foods became the largest consumer of renewable energy in Taiwan, underlining countrywide CSR efforts that have been taking place since several high-profile food security scandals.  A McDonald's chain in Taiwan comprising around 400 restaurants was bought by De Yu Co., a firm controlled by the CEO of Ambassador Hotels Group Hubert Lee. The value of the transaction is estimated at TWD5.1bn (USD170mn).  Taiwan's External Trade Development Council reports that more restaurants are applying for halal certifications and food producers are targeting a larger market share in South East Asia. The number of companies with halal certifications grew by around 40% in the first half of 2017.

海天味业作为调味品龙头，17年度顺利完成年初目标，年报十分靓丽。与此同时，海天年报披露详尽细致，财务三张表十分干净，可成为学习行业、理解公司的重要工具。招商食品通过对海天年报分析过程梳理成文，与您一起更详细阅读年报，并透过年报了解海天。

2017年，白酒板块营收与归母净利润分别同比增长27.74%和43.32%，增速分别提升13.96pct和32.65pct，2018Q1增速也同比增加，行业景气度加速提升。以茅台为首的一线高端品牌是17年行业增长的最强力量，随后景气度逐渐向下传导，次高端与区域龙头将进一步受益。消费升级大趋势下，白酒产品结构升级显著，叠加提价效应的共同作用，酒企毛利率与净利润均呈现增长态势，盈利能力进一步提升。白酒行业景气周期仍将延续，建议重点关注高端、次高端及区域龙头名优酒企。

年初以来，投资者纠结于茅台预收款、发货量、一批价等指标，担忧白酒行业进入景气周期拐点。历史虽会重演，但是不会复制，招商食品团队在复盘上轮周期的基础上，放眼长期，试图阐述白酒行业本轮特点：超长周期、需求良性、分化明显、价格分明、渠道理性，判断白酒行业景气度可看更久，继续买入板块。标的来看，高端白酒重回稳增状态，市值仍有空间，茅台最为确定，五粮液老窖亦有潜力，大众白酒价格带，在业绩加速和估值安全性强的背景下，短期仍看好区域龙头白酒表现，全年来看，全国性品牌想象空间更足。

从总量来看，4月线上销售额休闲食品/保健食品/奶粉母婴以36亿/14亿/10亿分列前三位。从增速来看，保健食品同期增长42.5%，仍然保持快速增长态势。奶粉母婴单4月销售额同比+14.7%；休闲食品4月同增18.2%。乳制品行业回暖复苏，纯奶4月同比+33%，酸奶+49%。酒类中，白酒4月同比+20%，受价格贡献明显；啤酒4月同比+35%，量价齐升；葡萄酒同比+3%；预调鸡尾酒同比+10%。酱油/醋4月销售额+107%/+52%，低基数高增长。

2017年年报和2018年一季报披露完毕，食品饮料板块中大众消费品整体表现稳健，需求景气依旧，盈利能力改善明显，其中乳制品收入增速表现最为亮眼，需求回暖持续验证，这与我们此前迎接大众消费之春的判断保持一致。

贵州茅台：全年业绩增长确定，维持战略首推地位。尽管18Q1茅台出货量低于预期，但全年来看量（预计+5%以上）价（预计20%左右）增长仍然确定，叠加系列酒弹性（预计40%以上），我们认为茅台18年收入增长仍在30%上方。近期茅台发货节奏有所下降，因此一批价有所上扬，从节后的1500-1550元已上涨至1550元上方，这显示茅台即便在淡季也仍然处于绝对卖方市场地位。基于茅台是整个白酒行业逻辑运行的决定要素及板块中业绩确定性最高的基本面，仍维持战略首推地位。