2009 年以来，国内经济增速逐渐下行，2018 年，受去杠杆、中美贸易战影响，国内经济增速继续回落，同时，我国社会商品零售总额从多年的两位数增长变成了个位数增长，说明消费行业增速减缓是事实。但是，食品饮料行业具有较强的防御性，本轮食品饮料行业业绩的增长由需求端推动，因此具有较强的持续性，考虑到业绩增长的持续性和估值水平，在经济发展不确定下，食品饮料行业仍然是2019 年投资者关注的行业。

食品饮料  18 年 5月之后整体呈现弱势走低格局，截至12 月 25 日，食饮板块跌 幅 22.88%，但仍跑赢沪深300指数，在申万一级行业板块中排名第5位。调味位成为唯一收涨的子行业，葡萄酒、软饮料黄其他类乳品都有超过 30% 的跌幅。

回顾2003-2018年白酒周期发现，消费升级是贯穿周期始终的核心驱动力，2015年以后的景气周期主要由自发性消费驱动，公务消费支撑作用明显下降。在景气和调整周期中，二线酒企营收、业绩弹性大于一、三线酒企。我们对2019年白酒周期的展望是高端酒提价节奏放缓，将以价稳量增来维持温和增长；高端酒提价打开次高端及以下各价格带白酒成长空间。因此，建议关注次高端名酒全国化和区域性核心酒企高成长带来的投资机会。

2018年食品饮料下 跌 22%，排名第三，其中调味品涨幅领先。白酒，无需悲观，放缓但不会下滑，优质公司大有机会。其他酒，重点关注黄酒龙头。乳业，伊利与蒙牛龙头间竞争有望趋缓，若原奶价格温涨，龙头表现更佳。投资思路，从内部治理和外部环境，寻找超预期机会，重点推荐贵州茅台、山西汾

酒、伊利股份，关注古越龙山。

9 年在宏观经济预期下行影响下，白酒行业将愈加呈现挤压式竞争，行业集中度提升将进一步提速，各公司费用率预计趋于上行，更加密切跟踪一线白酒批价和次高端放量趋势是寻找机会时点最重要手段。

长期来看，白酒行业品牌化大周期仍将持续，市场集中度将不断提升，且在本轮周期中加速，品牌白酒依然是优质成长板块；过去10 年茅五泸洋的合计收入份额从76%提升至83%，品牌白酒彰显出较高的成长性。

Brewer’s yeast market has been segmented on the basis of type, application, and region. Various raw materials used in the market include molasses and pure yeast culture. Based on product, the market has been segmented into dry yeast and liquid yeast. Brewer’s yeast, which is the leftover yeast after brewing operations, is used as a feedstuff for pigs, ruminants, poultry, & fish and as a flavoring ingredient in the food industry. Brewer’s yeast, which is commonly extracted from large breweries, is used as a protein supplement in animal feed. On the basis of application, the market has been segmented into food supplements and feed supplements.

Lactic acid market has been segmented on the basis of raw material, applications, and regions. Lactic acid products are made of corn, sugar, cassava, and other crops including wheat, potato, rice, and sweet sorghum, and are used in several applications including industrial, pharmaceuticals, personal care as well as in the production of polylactic acid. Lactic acid is also manufactured by other lignocellulosic crops & residues including corn cobs, woody materials, and waste paper. The product is further utilized as descaling agents, neutralizers, and cleaning agents in chemical, metal, and agrochemical industries.

周期性调整而非断崖式下滑，行业量价齐升逻辑受到挑战，高基数+需求边际放缓+库存消化，业绩预期与估值仍需下修；以史为鉴，预计顺势而为和提升自身竞争优势的公司表现将相对较好；抱团取暖后遗症，仍需等待微观结构改善。

Thailand is also one of the largest producers of processed foods in the world. Thailand's food processing sector is made up of mostly small firms and cottage industries, with medium-to-large enterprises accounting for 15% of the sector. Thailand's largest drinks company ThaiBev purchased 252 KFC outlets in the country for approximately USD470mn. Thailand-based conglomerate Charoen Pokphand Foods (CP Foods) plans to increase the proportion of sales it makes from its overseas business in the next five years in a bid to 'tackle global economic uncertainties'. The government has announced a food and agro-industry project to support farmers and businesses, creating a Northern Thailand food valley to help make crop prices more stable and boost rural incomes.