经济迎来超预期边际改善，白酒有望再次跑出超额收益，高端酒表现或将更优。在之前的报告中，我们自下而上研究了白酒基本面、资金面以及估值体系的变化，但是当我们自上而下梳理白酒研究框架时，发现在直接影响白酒需求的宏观经济层面，同样存在一些超预期变量：今年以来我国“逆周期稳增长”持续推进，信用宽松、利率低位运行、地方债发行加速，地产和基建投资增速均环比回升，即信用、货币、发债、投资等各维度均预示着我国经济正在迎来边际改善，而这将直接带动白酒需求持续回暖。

1～2 月，食品三大子行业工业增加值增速不高，其中，食品制造业同比增长 6.0%；农副食品加工业同比增长 6.3%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业同比增长 6.4%。

Breast milk was the primary source of nutrition for infants and young children before the introduction of breast milk substitutes. Proper breastfeeding can boost the immunity of infants and young children while promoting their growth and development. Breastfeeding is highly crucial until the age of two years in infants. However, with the increasing popularity of breast milk substitutes, breastfeeding rates have declined in most of the developed countries. As per a report published on the UN child protection unit by UNICEF, more than 800,000 infant deaths can be prevented globally by breastfeeding. The report also says that the world’s richest countries had the lowest breastfeeding rates. Among the high-income countries, more than one in five babies have never been breastfed, whereas in the low- and middleincome countries, 1 in 25 babies have never been breastfed. The lower breastfeeding rates have led to the high demand for infant milk solutions, especially in the developed nations.

2019 年1-2 月行业量增长超预期。2019 年1-2 月啤酒行业累计产量为539 万千升，同比增长4.2%。自2018 年9 月以来，啤酒行业单月的产量增速环比持续加快。2019 年1-2 月餐饮业收入同比增长9.7%，环比2018 年12 月的9%加速（2018 年全年增速为9.5%）；限上餐饮收入增长8.1%，环比2018 年12 月的5.5%加速明显（2018 年全年增速为6.4%）。餐饮业的增速回升推动了啤酒行业量的增长，而限上餐饮更强的复苏趋势有利于啤酒行业的消费升级。零售端（非即饮渠道），2019年1-2 月烟酒类零售额同比增长4.6%，环比2018 年12 月增速高点的8.4%明显放缓，主要因今年春节提前。同时，2019 年1-2 月全国平均最高温度呈上升趋势，济南和广州作为前两大啤酒生产省的省会，最高温度同比上升明显。

在上篇报告《在迷雾中穿行—90 年代日本食品饮料的变与不变》中，我们着重分析了日本90 年代经济泡沫破裂后食品饮料行业的发展情况，即经济波动导致部分可选消费减少，但不改由社会结构及饮食文化演变带来的方便化、健康化、西式化趋势。进入21 世纪之后，日本多数食品饮料行业已进入成熟阶段，增长放缓甚至下滑，企业发展需要寻求新的增长动力。在本篇报告里，我们拉长时间维度，并从行业视角切换到公司视角，试图总结成熟市场中日本食品饮料龙头公司的发展情况。

江苏白酒市场规模大，据江苏省酒业协会，2018 年全省规模以上白酒企业实现325 亿元营收，另据立鼎产业网等调研数据，江苏白酒市场规模约375 亿元，我们取中间值预计18 年江苏白酒市场规模达350 亿元左右。江苏居民人均可支配收入高出全国平均水平35%，消费升级领先全国，民间消费逐渐向300 元以上价位段升级。在两大苏酒龙头的引导下，次高端行业（终端成交价300-600 元/瓶）迅速扩容，18 年规模达80 亿元以上（据酒类流通协会、洋河股份官网，梦之蓝18 年省内规模约47 亿元；据今世缘公司财报，按照特A+类产品收入估算国缘次高端约18亿元，另外据微酒、酒业家等调研数据，其他全国次高端酒企中剑南春约10 亿元，郎酒、水井坊等规模仍较低，预计合计不到20 亿元）。16-18 年江苏次高端收入CAGR 约30%左右（16 年次高端规模采用同样口径估算），受益江苏民间消费升级，我们预计未来3 年江苏次高端收入CAGR 略放缓至25%左右。

Augmented analytics comprises a combination of AI, machine learning, natural language processing (NLP), augmented data preparation, automated analytics and visual-based data discovery. Augmented analytics is the next generation intelligence delivery model running on the platforms that automate and integrate activities such as data cleansing and data preparation, detecting data patterns and layers, linking with business workflows, building models around data clusters, and developing insights from the models to make it easier for decision makers. It is all done in a plug-and-play format without the need for command by a data scientist.

India’s food and beverage sector features a medium-to-high level of competition, with a total of 39,318 active factories at the end of FY2016, most of them small-scale industrial units. At around 60% in FY2016, the share of the organised sector in food processing is relatively high, although there are significant variations across segments, according to IBEF. Nevertheless, the unorganised sector still has considerable influence, which intensifies competition. Liberalisation of the FDI rules for the sector in recent years has attracted several large foreign investors willing to tap the growth potential of the domestic market.