军工复材技术发展至今已逐渐成熟，在国产武器装备中的应用越来越广泛，应用比例也正逐步提升，而且我们认为，未来仍有较大提升空间。在混改、价格改革、军民融合、院所改制等改革快速推进和航空航天产业链迎来快速发展的行业背景下，军工行业下游对军工复材的需求有望快速增长。结合产业周期发展的特点，我们认为军工复材产业目前正处于成长期，行业内企业利润率水平较高且市场需求旺盛，具备中长期投资价值。 

12 月，新船需求大幅下滑，订单量同比涨幅显著回落，累计新接订单量达到3667 万载重吨，同比增长8.7%；交付量环比大幅下滑，全年完工量较上年亦有所下降；手持订单量小幅增加，全年存量同比仅涨2.4%；新造船价格微升，需求的结构性特征渐强；出口额微幅上涨，全年出口规模超250 亿美元；船企营收利润同步下滑，行业盈利水平不容乐观。

Globally, aerospace industry is witnessing restructuring process to achieve maximum efficiency and greater performance. The aerospace & defense materials market is poised for a positive growth owing to the factors such as rising passenger traffic, accelerated fleet replacement cycle, and rising need for lightweight materials to increase the aircraft efficiency. After nearly a decade of dominance, metals are witnessing an increased competition from composite materials. However, the buy-to-fly ratio of metals isn’t very attractive. Usually, only 10–20% of the total purchased metals is used in the manufacturing of aircraft. With complex designs, the buy-to-fly ratio deteriorates. However, composites represent a complete opposite case, as the wastage during processing is very less. Composites can be easily modified to alter their properties to obtain flexible designs. Increased demand for composites has stimulated the demand for titanium as aluminum corrodes rapidly when comes in contact with composite panels. However, composites won’t be able to entirely replace metals because composites cannot be used for many complex designs where metals are a suitable choice.

军民船行业迎来双拐点：军船订单19 年较高增长确定性大，民船处在长周期底部现逐步回暖。与其他军工行业相比，船舶装备产业链军民融合程度最深，业绩弹性较大，船舶装备行业值得关注。

世界军费再次到上升拐点 ，我国军费支出与世界平均水相比偏低，未来有望向韩印靠拢， 未来有望向韩印靠拢， 未来有望向韩印靠拢， 未来有望向韩印靠拢， 未来有望向韩印靠拢， 从美国 2019 年国防支出来看，海空军仍是重点，我国海空军数量相对较少，预计2019 年仍为采购重点。

Agriculture holds an important role in the growth and sustenance of the Indian economy. With farming and allied activities, the agriculture sector is also the largest employers of the country and accounts for engagement of close to 50% of the total working population. Agriculture also amounted to 17.4% of India’s national GDP in 2018. Considering the vital importance of agriculture and farming households, the government of India has been quite serious in its budget and infrastructure planning pertaining to the agriculture sector and its allied activities.

造船业具有长周期的特性，船舶从开建到交付需要1-2年，其存续期更是长达20年以上，上一轮的造船牛市的繁荣在2008年徐徐落下，下一次造船周期的起点依然令人期盼。然而影响船舶业周期的因素纷繁复杂，我们试图通过对漫长的造船史进行梳理，探究造船业在历次产业迁移及在各种供需状况下的行业周期特性。

航空公司运营具有高资本投入、高负债、高杠杆经营特点，成本端缺乏议价权，收入端以客座率为主导，与成本端联动弱，公司盈利受到经济周期的影响。整体看来，世界航空业随着世界经济发展慢慢普及发展；中国民航本来起步较晚，长期来看仍然处于成长期。

军工板块具备长期布局的投资价值。截至12月21日，军工板块整体估值约为37.37x，虽然仍高于2008年初（21.62x）的水平，但已经略低于2012年底（37.48x）的水平，明显进入估值底部区域。中长期看，板块估值回归空间约为50%。部分优质军民融合个股动态市盈率早已跌破30x，并持续低位运行。我们认为行业经过三年估值风险释放，目前已经具备长期布局的投资价值。