2019 一季度公募基金持仓军工股比例为2.49%，环比下降 0.1 个百分点，持股仓位仍然偏低，从历史来看，公募基金持仓比例已低于 2010 年以来平均值 2.88%，下降空间有限。

在中美贸易摩擦持续升级，美国对华政策愈加强硬的国际形势下，强大军事实力是国家安全的重要保证和坚强后盾。同时，强大的国防军工产业是科技兴军的关键，因此在外部地缘不稳定形势下，有望加速推进军工改革和装备建设。我们认为，制造业是决定全球趋势变革的主要力量，军工是制造业中横跨行业多、技术全球领先、具有独立自主优势的大产业，是制造强国战略的火车头，军工有望在国企改革中担当重任。2019 年两船合并预期上升，军工集团资产证券化加速，业绩驱动和主题投资机会并存，我们认为行业有望迎来底部反转，建议加大配置军工行业。 

战机更新换代主要依赖航空发动机性能升级，因此航发技术水平高低很大程度上决定一国空中力量发展高度。 航空发动机行业壁垒较高，全球仅美/俄/英/法/中5国可独立研制；但回报高，单位重量附加值是飞机的1.8倍、计算机的4.7倍。 航空发动机经历了“活塞-涡喷-涡扇-高涵道比-推重比10以上低涵道比”四次变革，高性能涡扇仍是当前研发投入核心。

1、截止到2019 年第一季度末，公募基金军工持仓总市值为288.02 亿元，较上季度上升35.0%，持股总市值17912.14 亿元，军工股持仓占比为1.61%，相较上季度1.54%的持仓占比上升了0.07 个百分点。分地区看，广深地区公募基金军工持仓最多，总市值达142.62 亿元，在三地公募基金军工持股总市值中占比49.52%；北京地区公募基金军工持股市值较上季度上升比例较大。

The commercial aircraft avionics market is primarily dependent on the demand for new aircraft and upgrades of avionics for the existing aircraft. The aviation industry is growing, and the procurement of new aircraft is being done on a large scale in all the regions of the world. This is generating a huge demand for the entire supply chain of the aircraft, which includes the avionic components.

The preventive vaccines market has attained maturity in some of the disease segments, like polio, while for some diseases, it is yet to establish itself in the market. In spite of these differences in each segment, the market is continuously growing, due to the exponential growth that is varying, with respect to the demand for vaccination for separate diseases over time.

In 2018, airlines in the United States stretched their unbroken string of operating profits to eight years, but they’re now facing tough choices as costs increase and margins narrow. While persistently strong demand for air travel is pushing many carriers to add capacity, the additional routes and service are making pricing more competitive and putting pressure on yields. Airline operations also face mounting obstacles to sticking to their published schedules. For carriers, it’s coming down to a battle of growing capacity and revenue versus maintaining operational resilience. With predictions of a global economic slowdown in 2019 and 2020, remaining profitable may become more of a test. For the year ending in September 2018, the average carrier margin declined to 8.5 percent as higher operating costs began to offset rising revenue. That’s down 2.1 percentage points from the previous 12 months, and it marks the third straight year that US airline margins have contracted.

3 月，新船市场形势不容乐观，需求依然寡淡，累计新接订单量达到 459 万载重吨，同比下降 70.4%；供给方面，积压问题订单逐步消化，交付量自 2018 年来首迎正增长；在新船订单量大幅减少和交付量增长的作用下，手持船舶订单量继续下滑；新造船价格 20 个月来首次下跌，各分船型表现不同；出口需求显著恢复，同比降幅较上月底有所收窄；行业绩效水平继续向好，收入利润迎来双增长。