我们判断，新冠疫情对轻工行业短期会带来一定负面影响，但全年来看整体有限。具体方面：1）内销型家具企业短期受冲击较大，疫情结束后需求可能集中释放，建议关注欧派家居、顾家家居；2）造纸与包装领域，文化纸需求基本稳定，包装纸受到一定负面冲击，下游包装需求待逐步复工后会有所回暖，建议重点关注细分领域龙头太阳纸业、奥瑞金；3）必选消费具备较强韧性，短期受疫情影响有限，中长期保持稳健增长，在线办公直接受益，建议关注中顺洁柔、齐心集团。

定制家具：上半年受冲击较大，下半年环比修复明显。Q1 订单流失多；虽然疫情过后服务需求将出现脉冲式增加，但会受终端服务能力与产能制约。订单转化工厂营收约一个季度，Q2 工厂端收入仍受订单流失影响；预计Q2 接单恢复正常，下半年工厂端收入环比将明显修复。

造纸板块：生活用纸>包装用纸>文化用纸。文化纸方面，现阶段双胶纸需求集中在药品说明书以及政府文件印刷领域，出版社招标预计将会延迟；03年各种报刊杂志及海报宣传仍较盛行，且SARS期间有较多卫生宣传海报与报纸也对铜版纸和新闻纸的需求形成了支撑；但目前随着互联网的普及，上述现象将不复存在，文化纸价格面临较大压力；包装纸方面，药品包装盒较多采用白卡纸，快递增多也将刺激箱板瓦楞纸的需求。但疫情对出口的影响依然值得长期关注，此外包装纸整体与经济景气度密切相关，若疫情形成对经济明显冲击，亦将对整个包装纸行业形成负面影响。生活用纸方面，产品具备必选消费属性，在轻工行业中受影响相对最小，且消毒类湿巾需求大增，关注中顺洁柔。

Superabsorbent polymers are used as an absorbent, as they can absorb up to 300 times of their weight in aqueous fluids. Owing to characteristics, such as protecting the skin against drying, irritation, and infections, the largest use of superabsorbent polymers is in personal hygiene products, which include feminine hygiene products, diapers, and adult incontinence products. The governments in different countries are continuously collaborating with various NGOs, media center, and various companies, to educate people about personal hygiene management. The motive behind these initiatives is to keep the environment cleaner and safer and to avoid the spread of various diseases. According to the World Health Organization, every year, around 15 million babies are born in the world and this number is increasing. With the rising infant born rate and increasing awareness toward hygiene of a baby, the demand for superabsorbent polymers is increasing.

in 2015, there was approximately 2,108,728 metric ton of paper packaging production in Thailand and the distribution of approximately 2,112,317 metric ton, with the total market value of approximately THB 140,000 million. Corrugated box packaging is majorly used for transportation of goods whereas packaging cardboard boxes has major use in the retail segment in Thailand serving approximately a total of about 1,000 entrepreneurs, most of them retailers, including large companies, that account for 10% of all entrepreneurs. Corrugated cardboard box containers have a combined usage proportion of approximately 70% of the total volume of paper packaging production.

2019 年在应对贸易摩擦中，头部企业体现出资本力、反 应力、执行力上的统治性优势。头部企业海外产能的快速布局成就了风雨 中的反脆弱性，而小企业则批量退出，这使得以分散著称的软体家具行业 迎来了行业集中度显著提升。

原材料木浆：浆价底部有所松动，短期仍将震荡为主。本周国内木浆均价为3999 元/吨，较上周小幅上涨.2%。浆价出现小幅松动，但从港口木浆库存和周转天数来看，短期内浆价仍将区间震荡。外盘阔叶浆、针叶浆报价比较平稳，小鸟、银星CFR 现货价分别报于460 美元/吨、570 美元/吨。

2019 年回顾：轻工制造板块上涨16.93%，当前具备明显估值优势。文娱用品强势跑赢大盘，细分白马龙头股受到青睐。2019 年年初至今（截至12 月17 日），上证综指上涨21.19%， SW 轻工制造指数上涨16.93%，在A 股28 个行业板块（申万分类）中涨跌幅排名第15 位。估值小幅修复，SW 轻工制造板块目前市盈率（TTM，整体法）为22.74 倍，显著低于近五年历史均值（38.01 倍）。