我国出生人口呈下滑态势，当前婴幼儿配方奶粉的“量”有所萎缩，但在高端产品的拉动下，价格持续增长，进而带动整体市场销售额的增长。未来，生育政策的出台将有助于提升婴幼儿配方奶粉行业需求，而快速增长的儿童配方奶粉细分市场亦有望为行业带来新的增长点。

业绩是股价上涨的关键，季报期寻找超预期的逻辑得到充分验证。从汾酒、金徽酒的近期表现来看，业绩是驱动股价上涨的最关键因素，市场已经开始逐渐反应年报及一季报，我们认为行情仍将继续演绎。在前期周观点中强调“反弹时精选性价比”，除即将到来的年报、季报催化以外，淡季表现及后续趋势会是精选“性价比”的关键，也是在板块内部实现相对收益的关键。我们认为次高端和区域酒，也就是200-800 元价格带更容易存在超预期的可能。

2021 年3 月11 日，十三届全国人大四次会议表决通过了关于国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035 年远景目标纲要的决议。在“国内大循环”为主题的发展环境下，叠加新冠疫情影响，此次“十四五”规划相较“十三五”更加重视促进内需，明确提出全面促进消费，主要通过形成更高水平供需动态平衡、发展服务消费、培育新型消费模式、提升终端消费能力以及优化消费载体等方式来实现目标。

大众品板块：考虑基数影响及成本传导，优先啤酒、乳业。啤酒仍是未来几年产业趋势确定性较高的行业，行业利润诉求增强背景下成本传导能力较强，不排除年内集体提价，且当前估值性价比已经突出，坚定推荐华润(H 股)和青啤(A+H 股)，关注重啤。乳业格局好转，且需求端持续较好，年内原奶延续上行向下游传导，重申龙头伊利推荐，加大关注蒙牛。其他食品板块，布局业绩高增可对冲高估值、及低估值改善的标的，推荐绝味、榨菜、汤臣、安琪、安井、双汇，关注巴比及仙乐。

乳制品方面，生鲜乳价格继续小幅上涨。截至2021 年3 月24 日，主产区生鲜乳平均价为4.29 元/公斤，环比持平，同比上涨13.80%。肉制品方面，仔猪、生猪、猪肉价格于2019 年5 月份开始探底回升并且延续涨价趋势，去年十一前后价格开始出现明显下滑，猪肉价格中期向下趋势确立。截至今年3 月19 日，全国22 省仔猪、生猪、猪肉价格分别达到108.47元/千克、27.94 元/千克、42.70 元/千克，分别同比变动-1.61%、-15.56%、-8.58%。

本周A 股呈横盘震荡走势，周度成交量下降幅度收窄。消费板块结束前几周的弱势走势，其中食品饮料行业上涨2.23%，跑赢沪深300 指数1.61 个百分点，在28 个申万一级子行业中排名第6。最近白酒板块回落幅度较大，主要在于短期涨幅过快叠加市场风格阶段性切换。但是行业景气向上并未改变，春节动销打下良好基础，行业一季报整体展望向好。年报季报披露以及春糖有望逐步释放积极信号。

大宗商品价格的上行和农产品价格的上行，对下游食品饮料企业形成较大的成本压力，在今年全年成本上涨的背景下，选取成本可向下游传导的行业，有望获得更确定的利润增长空间。我们梳理了一下食品饮料板块的细分行业，认为乳制品板块在2021 年具有这样的特质，盈利有望扩张。

The report covers the detailed analysis of the trends, future estimations, and a thorough study of the global market based on type, channel, and region. It analyses government regulations, and policies, to provide information on the current market trends in different regions and suggests the future growth opportunities. The report covers the overall net value of different products of duty-free liquor consumed by various consumers across the globe. The study highlights Porter’s five forces analysis to determine the factors affecting the market growth. These factors include raw material prices, intense competition, end users, manufacturers, and suppliers. To understand the market, drivers, restraints, and opportunities are explained in the report.

In the dairy industry, pea milk is one of the recent innovations wherein manufacturers are seeking for inexpensive solution to meet the growing demand for protein across the globe. Pea milk is extracted from yellow peas, and it constitutes the same amount of protein as delivered by cow milk and a lot more than that present in almond milk. The milk that is extracted from peas is cost-effective, offers original taste, and does not deliver strong flavor as other plant-based milk available in the market.

Matcha tea is a type of green tea that is made by picking young tea leaves and subsequently grinding these tea leaves into a bright green powder. For the purpose of analysis, the report segments the global matcha tea market based on product type, form, nature, distribution channel, and regions. The report provides details about the various product types such as regular and flavored matcha tea. Moreover, it focuses on different forms of matcha tea, including powder and liquid,. In addition, it highlights the information about nature of matcha tea, which includes organic and conventional.