本周A 股呈横盘震荡走势，周度成交量下降幅度收窄。消费板块结束前几周的弱势走势，其中食品饮料行业上涨2.23%，跑赢沪深300 指数1.61 个百分点，在28 个申万一级子行业中排名第6。最近白酒板块回落幅度较大，主要在于短期涨幅过快叠加市场风格阶段性切换。但是行业景气向上并未改变，春节动销打下良好基础，行业一季报整体展望向好。年报季报披露以及春糖有望逐步释放积极信号。

大宗商品价格的上行和农产品价格的上行，对下游食品饮料企业形成较大的成本压力，在今年全年成本上涨的背景下，选取成本可向下游传导的行业，有望获得更确定的利润增长空间。我们梳理了一下食品饮料板块的细分行业，认为乳制品板块在2021 年具有这样的特质，盈利有望扩张。

The report covers the detailed analysis of the trends, future estimations, and a thorough study of the global market based on type, channel, and region. It analyses government regulations, and policies, to provide information on the current market trends in different regions and suggests the future growth opportunities. The report covers the overall net value of different products of duty-free liquor consumed by various consumers across the globe. The study highlights Porter’s five forces analysis to determine the factors affecting the market growth. These factors include raw material prices, intense competition, end users, manufacturers, and suppliers. To understand the market, drivers, restraints, and opportunities are explained in the report.

In the dairy industry, pea milk is one of the recent innovations wherein manufacturers are seeking for inexpensive solution to meet the growing demand for protein across the globe. Pea milk is extracted from yellow peas, and it constitutes the same amount of protein as delivered by cow milk and a lot more than that present in almond milk. The milk that is extracted from peas is cost-effective, offers original taste, and does not deliver strong flavor as other plant-based milk available in the market.

Matcha tea is a type of green tea that is made by picking young tea leaves and subsequently grinding these tea leaves into a bright green powder. For the purpose of analysis, the report segments the global matcha tea market based on product type, form, nature, distribution channel, and regions. The report provides details about the various product types such as regular and flavored matcha tea. Moreover, it focuses on different forms of matcha tea, including powder and liquid,. In addition, it highlights the information about nature of matcha tea, which includes organic and conventional.

白酒板块：高端白酒增长强劲，次高端处于翻转爬坡期。食品板块：明显好于预期，实现业绩平稳过渡。乳制品板块：春节期间销售超预期实现开门红，尤其是白奶产品，渠道反馈动销超出19年水平。调味品板块：板块去年餐饮端受疫情影响业绩受损，今年春节期间餐饮端强势反弹。休闲食品板块：依旧受疫情反复影响。

3 月 15 日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1-2 月份，全国社会消费品零售总额 69737 亿元，同比增长 33.8%。其中，1-2 月 烟酒类商品零售总额为 861 亿元，同比增长了 43.9%。可选消费继续领先，必选中啤酒行业转型正当时。

经过前期快速、大幅调整，板块已经开始企稳筑底，有信息催化的个股已经开始反弹。从市场沟通情况来看，投资者对于“美债”敏感性在逐渐降低、对“抱团”的态度也逐渐友善，导致板块下跌的负面扰动逐渐钝化，预计业绩兑现将逐渐取代宏观信息成为板块行情的主要矛盾。

本周A 股下跌，上证指数收于3404.66 点，周变动-1.40%。食品饮料板块周变动-0.70%，表现强于上证指数0.71 个百分点，位居申万一级行业分类第15 位。

前三轮白酒牛市每次终结时均出现大级别调整，茅台下跌36%-63%。白酒板块分别于2008 年、2013 年、2018 年经历牛市结束后的大级别调整，期间白酒企业基本面受挫，估值业绩“双杀”，茅台下跌36-63%。（1）第一轮牛市末，因高估值叠加金融危机调整，2008 年茅/五/泸调整63%/77%/65%，PE（股价/当年EPS，下同）从57/133/86 倍调整至21/25/18 倍。（2）第二轮牛市末，因12 年底“八项规定”出台调整，2013 年茅/五/泸调整54%/62%/64%，PE 从21/15/15 倍调整至9/9/6倍。（3）第三轮牛市末，因经济去杠杆叠加“贸易战”调整，2018 年茅/五/泸调整36%/46%/49%，PE 从29/25/30 倍调整至18/13/15 倍。