食品饮料景气度持续向好，白酒延续快速增长，乳品复苏仍在加速，肉制品、调味品需求改善，小品类机会纷呈。从三季报角度，建议重点关注四类品种：1）业绩增长持续性好，18 年估值上行天花板仍较高品种，主要是伊利、桃李、大北农、洋河；2）业绩增长持续性好，业务风险小， 18 年估值仍处相对合理区间品种，如茅台、安琪、绝味、海天；3）或受益于市场风格变化，多题材型品种，如三全；4）估值贵，但当前仍有高增长趋势的品种，如汾酒、酒鬼酒、水井坊、舍得。 

白酒景气度回升，业绩分化明显。白酒板块营收 818.71 亿元（+ 21.02%）、 净利润 250.59 亿元（+25.70%），行业景气度持续回升。 个股来看，业绩分化明显，一二线酒企增速明显优于三线白酒。
 啤酒产量回升，期间费用下降。啤酒产量 2781.7 万千升，同比增长 0.8%，产量回升。啤酒企业期间费用率 22.30%，同比小幅下降。
 调味品龙头提价，行业趋势向好。调味品行业营收 123 亿元（+19%）， 净利润 25 亿元（+25%），行业趋势向好。为缓解成本上涨压力和顺 应消费升级趋势，海天、千和、中炬纷纷提价，业绩有望持续向好。

目前食品饮料行业共有 30 多家公司性质为地方国有企业，实际控制人为地方国 资委或地方国资控股公司，数量占整个食品饮料行业近一半。这 30 多家公司中 又有很大一批为白酒企业。从目前经营状况来看，国有白酒企业在企业管理、激 励机制等方面存在较大提升空间，而管理效率低下也是目前国有企业的通病。因 此，我们认为此轮国企改革更关注改革的实质性进展以及改制后对公司业绩的提 升效果，食品饮料行业作为充分竞争性行业，改革阻力小，改制效果佳，特别是 实施员工持股、股权激励及引入战略投资者的食品饮料国有企业，更加值得关注。

9 月份食品饮料板块涨幅第一，主要原因有二：一方面大盘整体走势不强，市场资本选择基本面比较稳健的食品饮料板块避险；其次，双节临近进入食品饮料消费旺季，利好板块内相关上市公司。预计 10 月份食品饮料板块会呈现震荡走势，随着 3 季报的陆续披露，建议关注业绩有明显改善、估值较低的上市公司。 其次，随着乳制品注册制名单的不断披露及实施临近，利好国内乳品品牌企业，建议持续关注。相关标的： 桃李面包、古井贡酒、贝因美、天润乳业等。

国庆期间（2017.9.30-2017.10.08）,海外主要股市均迎来上涨，恒生综指（香港）、标普 500（美国）、STOXX50（欧盟）、富时 100（欧盟）以及日经 225（日本）累计分别上涨 3.36%、1.19%、0.54%、2.04%、 1.64%。由于今年我国国庆和中秋节假日重叠，且为我国传统消费旺季，恒生消费品制造业累计涨幅为 5.09%，高出恒生综指 1.63 pcts。

从行业竞争格局来看，消费品行业具备“长跑冠军”潜质的是：1、空调：格力电器、美的集团。2、厨电：老板电器。3、定制家具：欧派家居、索菲亚。4、白酒：贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖。5、调味品：海天味业。6、乳制品：伊利股份。7、肉制品：双汇发展。 

1～8 月，食品行业三大子行业工业增加值增速较上月小幅下降。其中，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业增长 9.3%，食品制造业增长 8.6%；农副食品加工业增长 6.9%。三大子行业固定资产投资增速与上月基本持平。其中，农副食品加工业投资同比增长 4.3%；食品制造业固定投资同比增长 2.4%；酒、饮料和精制茶制造业投资同比减少 3.8%，降幅较 1～ 7 月略有收窄。

Scotch whisky is produced in Scotland.It is produced, packaged, and labeled as per SWR 2009.Scotch whisky is produced in five regions in Scotland: Highland, Lowland, Islay,Speyside, and Campbeltown.The global whiskey market was the fastest-growing segment in the global spirits market in 2016. The increase in demand for the premium segment will drive the market during the forecast period. The high demand for Irish whiskey is also driving the global whiskey market. The demand for the blended category remains high with single malt Scotch whisky being one of the most important and lucrative businesses.

Organic wine is produced from grapes that are grown organically. Organic cultivation excludes the use of artificial fertilizers, pesticides, fungicides, and herbicides. There are more than 2,000 organic wine producers globally. Since organic grape cultivation does not make use of any harmful chemicals, it is beneficial for both the environment and the crop. Grapes constitute one of those agricultural products that receive the heaviest application of pesticides, and conventional wines produced from such grapes generally contain pesticide residues. However, since organic wine is prepared from organic grapes, it is free from pesticide residues.

Low-alcohol beverages is one of the emerging trends in the global alcohol drinks market, which is expected to increase during the forecast period, as consumers are currently opting for a healthier lifestyle, which includes the consumption of healthy alcoholic drinks with a low-alcohol content.Many consumers are shifting from hard drinks to light drinks, which can be treated as a substitute. More number of consumers are now reading the nutritional labels and are demanding products which contain lower alcohol content. However, with these growing opportunities, the market is increasingly facing a challenge due to the perceptions of their inferior taste in lowalcohol beverages as compared to the conventional alcohol. Thus, many players are launching low-alcohol beverages in a wide range of flavors. It is expected that players in the market should not only focus on the low-alcohol content but should also communicate more about their complex production process, unique ingredients or added flavors, to justify that these drinks can be a substitute for the standard alcohol drinks.