Functional powder drink concentrates contain vitamins, herbs, pre- and probiotic live bacteria, yeasts, non-digestible fiber, and various amino acids. These concentrates constitute a segment of non-alcoholic beverages, and are formulated to improve digestion, boost immunity, boost energy and stamina, promote health functions (for example, the health of the heart, bones, and joints), and provide a feeling of satiation. These products are also convenient and can be consumed on-the-go. These two aspects have a vital role in influencing consumers' purchase decisions.

F&B warehousing is an essential aspect of food supply chain because most foods and beverages are temperature sensitive and perishable. Refrigeration helps to keep products fresh and prevents contamination. The competitiveness of the industry is driven by service or infrastructure ability of vendors apart from price and value-added services offered. Key vendors are expanding their infrastructure much ahead of the demand to grasp customer attention and distract them from unorganized or local vendors. Since warehousing buildings and refrigerated vehicles are fixed assets, vendors need to concentrate on building scale and customer network to stay competitive in this fragmented market.

经济发展与消费趋势之间存在对应关系，随着收入增长，消费者更加注重生活品质、精神体验，拓展消费空间。总量看，2016 年中国城镇化已达到 57.4%，人均可支配收入同比增长 8.2%超过 GDP 增速 6.7%，增速自 2016 年 Q3 连续三个季度止跌回升提振居民消费，2016 年消费占比经济增长的 64.6%，消费者信心持续攀升，地产预期降温有望腾出更多消费空间。

乳业复苏回归周期本质：在奶价温和上涨时期，成本对毛利率产生负面影响，但同时行业竞争趋缓，促销明显减弱+产品升级完全抵消成本影响，且费用下降的正面边际影响大于成本上涨，净利率会快速提升。

上周食品饮料再次领涨全市场，这也验证了我们前期一直所强调的板块高确定性，预计三季报业绩不错的情况下，市场防御风格会进一步催化板块行情。本周三季报将集中披露，业绩兑现，行情有望延续。

行业提价是指同款产品直接提升出厂价，回溯 08/11 年行业提价情况，提价后行业利润均加速提升，叠加今年以来部分成本回落，此轮行业提价对利润的正向影响或超预期。

据一号店的销售数据显示，2017年10月20日，53度飞天茅台的价格保持在1299元，52度五粮液水晶瓶的价格为969元，洋河梦之蓝M2的价格为488元，与9月价格保持一致，52度五粮液和梦之蓝M2的价格在10月13日有过小幅上涨。

本周食品饮料板块涨幅持续靠前，特别是乳制品和白酒板块涨幅较大，主要原因是本周是市场热点切换期，资本为避免损失选择未来细分行业改善性强及业绩稳健的细分行业以避险。 

基于行业基本面和估值水平，维持行业“推荐”评级。随着一线龙头持续提价并提前完成全年销售目标，行业继续保持较高的景气度，三季度白酒龙头如茅台、五粮液有望延续高增长。前期我们判断在白酒上行周期中，行业复苏节奏与进程有望自上而下传导，行情演绎也有望持续扩散。

白酒节后利好不断，推动板块强势回升，三季报及 11 月糖酒会再添催化。食品板块受益三四线需求复苏及城镇化促进，推动基础消费全面回暖，乳业表现最为明显。四季度投资策略，我们继续建议全面买入一线白酒，精选品种布局次高端白酒，尽享估值切换，四季度将是食品板块由防守转向进攻的起点，伊利作为此轮食品行情主角。