2023 年三季度，国际油价上涨 25%，我们预计上游油气开采行业盈利将环比提升。炼油业务方面，国内汽油裂解价差随着出行需求修复逐步改善，3Q23 平均价差 24.48 美元/桶， 同比+114.24%，环比+9.41%，预计炼油业务将维持较好盈利。下游化工品方面，由于油价上涨后各化工品表现不同，预计盈利将出现分化。

随着美国的能源独立，美国仍然是原油的净进口国，但是石油下游产品的净出口国。自 2010 年以来的美国页岩革命，带来石油产量的大幅增加，走向原油独立。但美国仍然保持一定的原油进口，与此同时，原油及石油的下游产品出口逐渐增加。

当前美联储净流动性处于收缩状态，同时，银行信贷收缩也将拖累美股盈利，美股估值将继续向下。预计黄金短期延续震荡，中期而言，预计美国失业率进入上升通道，美联储加息进入尾声，黄金是上涨趋势，年底有望上行至 2200 附近。沙特再次延长自愿减产，预计未来半年原油市场的基本面仍将供不应求，WTI 油价或呈现震荡上行趋势，年末目标价 95 美元。

8 月以来，黄金延续震荡，主要原因是商品价格上涨推升美国通胀，美国 CPI 连续 2 个月反弹，美元指数再度反弹至年内高点附近。在美联储不给前瞻指引而选择根据数据边走边看后，能导致金价单边走势的驱动因素还未出现，预计短期黄金以横盘震荡为主，等待新的催化剂出现。

The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

The Material described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the Material from other similar Material. The Material descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each Material is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for Material are listed below

The equipment described in this report are primarily defined by its title since the title is generally long and includes most of the criteria used to differentiate the equipment from other similar equipment. The equipment descriptions are sourced from the U.S. Census. Additionally descriptions can be collected from the manufacturing industry descriptions that each equipment is categorized. The U.S. Census manufacturing industry descriptions for equipment are listed below

近期布伦特原油和纽交所原油均已突破90 美元/桶，创年内新高。未来仍有上涨空间。 中信建投大类资产配置研究、石油化工能源、交运煤炭行业研究团队推出【油价投 资机会展望】，持续更新相关研究成果：油价如期到达90 美元目标，未来仍有上 涨空间——大类资产配置9 月报·战术篇油价突破90 美元/桶，投资机会如何看 石化煤炭周报：关注高股息标的，沙特延长减产推动油价突破90 美元OPEC+ 或进一步延长减产计划，国际油价持续走高。

能源转型成本有一个转嫁过程。成本最初由传统能源企业承担，随后影响资本开支行为，导致传统能源领域长周期资本开支不足，推升价格中枢。至此完成能源转型成本向社会的转嫁。这一过程也体现在股票价格上，能源板块从跑输到跑赢指数。标普能源股指数在2020-2021年跑输大盘。2021年底及2022年之后，随着能源品价格中枢抬升，且投资者逐渐认识到能源股资本开支模式变化及现金流模型改善带来的投资价值改善，标普能源指数开始跑赢大盘。

随着沙特和俄罗斯决定将 3Q23 的供应收紧计划一次性延长至 4Q23，加之需求旺季临近，我们预期石油基本面的短缺格局或将于年内延续，若伊朗如期于 9 月兑现增产目标，并在 4Q23 维持该产量水平，我们维持 3-4Q23 布伦特油价中枢相应上移至 85-90 美元/桶的判断。往前看，我们提示伊朗原油供应或为年内全球石油市场平衡的关键不确定性因素。