11 月房地产开发投资额同比增长 8.4%，较 10 月单月（+8.8%）继续边际下行，1-11 月累计同比增长 10.2%（1-10 月+10.3%）。11 月房屋新开工面积录得 2.9%的同比下滑，为年内首次单月负增长，我们认为一方面受去年同期基数较高影响，另一方面也体现前期9-10月房企抢开工后的自然回落。1-11月新开工面积累计同比增速收窄至8.6%（1-10 月+10.0%）。11 月土地购置面积同比下滑 0.8%（10 月+12.8%）。往前看，我们判断 12 月投资和新开工大概率仍将延续边际下行趋势，但考虑到近期政策端已呈现边际正向调整（时点早于我们预期），基本面各项指标亦可能出现早于预期的触底回升。 

从全国商品房销售来看，11 月销售面积同比增长 1.08%，较 10 月有所缩小，累计同比扩大至 0.2%；11 月销售金额同比增幅缩小至7.31%，累计同比与上月持平。从分线商品住宅销售情况来看，一线销售面积及金额 11 月累计同比增速均较 10 月有所上升；二线销售面积 11 月累计跌幅扩大，且销售金额的涨幅缩小；三四线销售面积及金额 11 月累计涨幅扩大。全国层面来看，1-11 月各线在低基数效应下相对平稳。我们认为，考虑基数和前期增速，行业全年销售再创历史新高已基本确定。

China's National Bureau of Statistics announced that real estate investment in January to February 2019 accelerated to 11.6% year-on-year. Although the government has restrained real estate speculation in large cities and the Chinese economy has slowed, inland investment demand was strong in the first quarter of 2019. According to NBS, home transactions in 2018 reached an all-time high, with 1.7 billion square meters and CNY 15 trillion worth of homes traded, a growth of 1.3% and 12.2%, respectively, compared to 2017. According to the Statistics Bureau, strong housing prices and increased housing construction contributed to the strong growth in real estate investment.