财富管理行业景气度回升，重申看好券商板块。5 月A 股成交额触底后持续回暖，7 月新发权益基金份额环比翻倍，公募基金行业景气度有望持续；市场流动性维持宽松，6 月M2 增速快速提升至11.4%；政策上融资端全面注册制改革、投资端资金入市政策预期逐步增强；板块估值仍低估低配，现板块静态PB 仅1.25 倍，位于近十年5%分位数。推荐国联证券、中信建投、东方财富、广发证券、中信证券、中金公司H。

所谓资产负债业务，是指会体现在银行资产负债表上的业务，如存款、贷款业务。所谓中间业务（表外业务）是指不会直接体现在银行资产负债表的业务，如表外理财业务，投行业务。同业业务主要包括同业拆借、同业借款、非结算性同业存款、同业代付、买入返售和卖出回购、同业投资等业务类型。

流动性充裕是支撑小盘成长风格的因素之一。筛选2000 年以来，隔夜资金利率分位数低于10%，持续超过1 个月的区间：2005/4-2005/11、2008/12-2009/9、2015/5-2016/6、2020/3-2020/5，期间小盘成长风格均有超额收益，流动性的充裕是支撑小盘成长风格的因素之一。风格终结于流动性的收紧。上述四段行情分别终结于2005/12、2010/6、2015/6、2020/6，均为资金利率逐渐上行、分位数超过20%时点，且前期货币政策态度、公开市场操作出现收紧。

截至2022 年7 月31 日，10 年期国债收益率下行了近6bp，具体走势为，7 月10 年期国债收益率持续下行，最低点为2.76%，主导因素为，（1）7 月狭义流动性的持续宽松，DR007 的波动范围在1.48%-1.67%之间，始终低于7 天逆回购利率；（2）房地产风险事件，包括烂尾断供和地产供应商停止还贷等事件，使得宽信用的实际效果再次受到怀疑；（3）7 月政治局会议对经济增长目标或有弱化，且宏观政策工具也未超预期，由此市场疑虑在经济基本面预期弱化下，下半年经济将呈现出怎样的斜率；（4）海外加息或导致经济陷入衰退风险，7 月美联储加息75 个基点，符合市场预期，但会议中释放偏鸽信号；7 月欧央行加息50 个基点，超市场预期，为11 年来首度加息。

我国主动管理型绿债主题基金数量较少，未来发展空间可观：1）目前公募基金市场存续4 只主动管理型绿债主题基金，根据基金季报数据着
重分析富国绿色纯债基金(简称富国纯绿)，兴业绿色纯债一年定开(简称兴业纯绿)，永赢信利碳中和主题一年定开(简称永赢碳中和)。2）总资
产净值：富国纯绿<兴业纯绿<永赢碳中和；单位净值：均实现环比正增长，永赢碳中和>兴业纯绿≈富国纯绿；持仓券种：富国纯绿与永赢碳
中和以中票及企业债为主，兴业纯绿仅持有金融债；组合久期：兴业纯绿(2.2 年)>永赢碳中和(1.8 年)>富国纯绿(1.7 年)，除兴业纯绿久期拉长外，其余二者均呈缩短态势；持有人结构：机构投资者占比达80%-100%。

In 2019, the domestic sales of heavy vehicles registered a third consecutive annual expansion due to the recovery of the Brazilian economy following the 2015-2016 recession. Output fell slightly by 0.1% y/y, while exports were down by 34.6% y/y in value and by 42.1% y/y in volume due to lower sales to Argentina. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to two-digit annual falls in output, domestic sales and exports of heavy vehicles. However, in 2021, the regional economic recovery led to a strong rebound in the demand for heavy vehicles. Domestic sales increased by 37.8% y/y in 2021, to 142,741 units, while export volume rose by 49.4% y/y to 34,934 units. This was accompanied by a solid 61% y/y expansion in heavy vehicle output, to 185,762 units. Output and domestic sales reported the largest volume for the 2016-2021 period, while exports reached the largest volume since 2018. Trucks accounted for the bulk of production, sales and exports in the heavy vehicle segment, being the main growth driver in 2021 as well.

The Indonesian automotive market is highly concentrated, with a few players accounting for the bulk of sales. In 2021, the top three brands controlled 63% of new motor vehicle sales (PCs and CVs), while the top five accounted for 84%. Japanese manufacturers are dominant both in terms of production and sales as they enjoy strong brand awareness and have built extensive dealership networks across the country. In addition, most of them have local plants and benefit from Indonesia’s relatively cheap workforce and low taxes, which decrease their production costs. The European brands have negligible market share, as they are positioned mainly in the premium segment. Chinese automakers have pledged to aggressively enter the market, but, so far, their penetration has been limited.

事件：7 月CPI 同比上行 0.2pct 至2.7%，市场预期 2.9%，环比 0.5%；PPI 同比4.2%，前值6.1%，市场预期4.7%，环比-1.3%。 CPI 食品项同环比增速拉升，非食品项增速回落，核心CPI 下行。 国内疫情的影响延续，服务项依然疲弱，消费品增速继续上行。核 心CPI 同比小幅回落。