财政收入同比增速与前值持平，仍落入负增区间。1 至 6 月一般公共预算收入同比 增速达到-0.3%，与前值持平，降幅处于收窄趋势的主因在于经济基本面修复进度加快。一般公共预算收入完成进度为 52.6%，五年维度看表现中性偏慢。

7 月，美国经济仍呈现为“胀”大于“滞”，经济表现好于预期。1）通胀方面，随着关税税率的提升和传导，7 月以来，线上零售价格持续上涨；2）增长方面，7 月美国失业率为 4.2%、符 合市场预期，且二季度 GDP 回升，经济总量上具有韧性，但结构上已现经济疲弱的态势。同时，美股超预期的季报数据也“点燃”了市场情绪，再度吸引外资的回流，也支撑了美元的反弹。1）美股二季报出炉，标普 500 盈利、营收均超市场预期。2）外资对美资产配置持续走高，其中对美股增持 113.6 亿美元。外资向美国“回流”等也支撑了美元上行。

7 月财政收入增速回升。7 月狭义财政收入 20273 亿元，同比由负转正，增长 2.7%。1-7 月公共财政收入累计同比同样转正至 0.1%，持平预算目标。多数税种增收，财政收入结构改善。7 月税收收入提速，同比增长 5%（前值1%）。主要税种多数改善，个人和企业所得税、消费税显著增长。个人所得税同比增长 14%，一是基数原因，另一方面，7 月起个税申报规则调整，对零申报的界定更加严格和明确，不再简单以收入是否超过起征点为唯一标准，并扩大零申报监管人群，例如企业高管、新兴职业群体等，新规则减少通过不规范零申报逃避税收的行为， 或一定程度上增加个税收入。企业所得税收入同比提高，“反内卷”政策下部分行业企业利润或有所改善。消费税增速由 2% 提升至 5.4%，低基数之外，7 月消费仍有韧性。

经典全天候策略本土化存在几个难点。一方面，宏观周期与资产之间的映射关系与海外存在差异，如高通胀风险在境内以黄金对冲的效果相对有限。一方面，增长与通胀平权有待商榷，我国在新旧动能转换的背景下增长全球瞩目，而高通胀在 2011 年后鲜有发生，且温和通胀和高通胀的影响不尽相同。另一方面，四象限的框架缺乏一定的延展性，基于国内宏观周期构建的框架难以纳入美股等海外资产。

学术研究表明基金经理的经验水平会显著的反映到一些投资决策特性上。学术上虽然对于“过度自信”和“损失厌恶”等行为金融学现象是否更容易出现在经验更丰富的基金经理中的问题存在一定分歧，但都认为基于基金经理经验的投资行为映射会在一定程度上影响基金的业绩，因此我们主要从行为金融学视角入手，在基金经理投资经验和决策行为方向挖掘超额收益。

GEM has been positioned as a market designed to accommodate small and mid-sized companies to which a higher investment risk may be attached than other companies listed on the Stock Exchange. Prospective investors should be aware of the potential risks of investing in such companies and should make the decision to invest only after due and careful consideration. Given that the companies listed on GEM are generally small and mid-sized companies, there is a risk that securities traded on GEM may be more susceptible to high market volatility than securities traded on the main board of the Stock Exchange and no assurance is given that there will be a liquid market in the securities traded on GEM.

Account takeover (ATO) prevention in banking includes the security controls and measures employed to thwart unauthorized access to customer accounts by fraudsters. ATO fraud happens when cybercriminals obtain access to a legitimate user's bank account using stolen credentials, phishing, malware, or social engineering. ATO prevention involves authentication controls, user behavior analytics, geo-location and IP intelligence, fraud detection systems, etc., to stop unauthorized access to user accounts by fraudsters.

Global Airport Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) Market Size and Share Analysis - Growth Trends

The market by value in this report is deffned as the revenues that enterprises gain from goods and/or services sold within the speciffed market and geography.  The market value includes the value of related goods sold by the service provider or included within the service offering. Only goods and services traded between entities or sold to end consumers are included

【债券日报】出口放缓,聚焦潜在的弹性修复-5月进出口数据点评-华创证券