2020 年5-10 月住宅销售面积连续六月同比正增长，10 月住宅销售面积同比增速提升至16.0%；10 月竣工数据转正，单月增长8.5%。由于2017Q4 至今地产销售与竣工数据持续错配，我们持续看好2020 年下半年及2021 年的竣工改善。

前三季度行业收入及净利润均实现正增长，预计全年有望延续。2020 年前三季度，轻工板块实现营业收入3,703 亿元，同比增长4%；归母净利润232 亿元，同比增长6%。在有疫情因素影响的情况下，今年前三季度行业营业收入及归母净利润增速较去年同期的0.25%和-17%有明显改善。预计行业全年收入及利润有望实现正增长。

Q3 国内消费继续复苏，C 端家居、生活纸品、文具等领域均持续恢复，此外，轻工出口链在Q2 分化（居家办公受益）背景下，Q3 双重受益防疫+产能替代，出口板块全面修复，Q4 料修复趋势依旧。

High-performance door is the faster version of standard doors with high-quality design and features to ensure the longevity of the door, efficient operation, and control of the production flow. These doors majorly come in materials such as metal (particularly aluminum and steel), fabric and rubber. Some of the high-performance doors are integrated with IoT features such as remote control for easy access and easy handling of doors. Moreover, there are several advantages of using highperformance doors, which include energy and operational savings, quick and efficient performance, supports the streamlining of processes, long-lasting performance, security and safety along with minimal maintenance. Also, some of the advanced features in these doors enhance their demand compared to conventional doors. For instance, certain high-performance doors can also be equipped with insulation curtains that can limit condensation and ice-build-up. Furthermore, few doors are also wind-resistant, and this feature is essential in keeping away cold winds from affecting the warm areas. The maintenance of highperformance doors is also easy as these doors are made of PVC curtains, and stainless-steel side covers are made to withstand the heavy use of cleaning agents. Some of the major characteristics of high-performance doors are as follows:

集成灶火爆，但较618增速略减；规模大增长，均价V型波动。

消费市场火爆，厨热市场高涨 。规模正增长，均价趋势较稳定。

疫后全球经济向上修复、人民币温和升值，持续看好造纸周期向上；10 月竣工增速回正、销售表现持续亮眼，后周期家居景气延续；消费电子、 办公集采景气不改，推荐布局底部优质标的。

投资建议：目前工程端商品住宅开工、销售、竣工情况逐月修复，10 月商品住宅销售同比显著增长，竣工同比略有下降，但短期疫情影响不改长期竣工回暖趋势，根据交房模型20 年竣工仍将持续改善，由于16-18 年精装修开盘套数高增长，结构上未来精装房交付逐渐增加，零售渠道价值回归更需重视。两条思路选股，一是可以享受精装修工程业务高增长红利的企业，二是管理优异、产品、渠道战略布局领先，可以在行业整合期持续成长的公司，重点推荐：【顾家家居】、【志邦家居】、【欧派家居】；关注【敏华控股】、【江山欧派】、【尚品宅配】、【索菲亚】、【好莱客】、【皮阿诺】、【金牌厨柜】、【梦百合】等。

2020 年新冠疫情打乱经济发展正常节奏，疫情是挑战更是机遇，龙头企业在反应速度、抗风险能力等诸多方面彰显出了明显的竞争优势。展望2021 年，我们建议紧握需求景气回升主线，重点推荐1）需求回补+地产销售强韧性下的家居零售板块，2）受益于国内制造迅速恢复、海外需求复苏的家居出口板块，3）建党百年带动文印需求增长的文化纸板块；同时，建议关注行业稳健增长、竞争格局向好的白卡纸龙头及文具龙头。重点推荐顾家家居、欧派家居、志邦家居、梦百合、江山欧派、太阳纸业、晨光文具与齐心集团。

10 月全国住宅销售面积单月同比增加15.98%。10 月全国住宅销售面积单月同比增加15.98%至14478 万平方米；1-10 月全国住宅累计销售118092 万平方米，同比上升0.8%，累计升幅较1-9 月扩大1.8 个pct。