2020 年9 月社零总额当月同比上升3.3%（Wind 一致预期为+2.25%），增速环比提升2.8pct。其中，家具类零售额当月同比增速显著修复，建议重点关注。2020年9 月家具类零售额当月同比下降0.6%，降幅环比缩小3.6pct。此外，对于竣工数据的短期回落，我们认为竣工缺口的回补是刚需，可能会有所延后但不会消失。

上周，APP、太阳纸业等再发提价函，从 11 月 1 日起，文化纸和白卡纸在目前执行价基础上再提300 元/吨，这是继国庆前提价后的再一次提价落地。自今年6 月开始，以文化纸和白卡纸为主的纸种累计多次提价，吨纸盈利明显增强

Lawn mowers have supported people in their landscaping duties over the last few generations. The lawn mower is a category of garden equipment that includes watermanagement equipment, trimmers & hedges, and hand tools. The global demand for various garden equipment, machinery, products, and tools, including accessories, was estimated at about $270 billion in 2019 and is expected to hit a value of $575 billion by 2026. Created in 1830 by Edwin Budding of England, the lawn mower was patented for the first time in the US in 1868. After World War II, lawn mowers gained prominence as families migrated to the suburbs and found themselves caring for larger yards. Cecil Pond developed the first ride-on lawn mower in 1956, and today, the latest trend is robotic lawn mowers. The lawn mower has developed over the years from a large, hard-to-maneuver tool into a complex family of equipment with various characteristics and different degrees of speed and cutting accuracy. The technology has changed the design of homes, parks, and fields worldwide. Manicured lawns were no longer confined to the aristocrats' estates-with the easy and inexpensive cutting devices; most middle-class homeowners were able to keep safe and desirable lawns to enhance their properties. In the 1870s, lawn mowers had become so easy to use and priced fairly, that they became more popular in American landscapes.

2020 年1-9 月全国住宅商品房销售面积103614 万平方米，同比下降1.0%，降幅继续收窄，降幅比1-8 月收窄1.5pct。单月数据看，2020 年9 月，全国住宅商品房销售面积16414 万平方米，同比上涨7.7%，单月销售显著改善，地产销售持续向好。

整体来看，四季度我们建议配置向零售/出口家居和造纸倾斜，均是边际改善明显，业绩确定性较高的板块，风险收益比处于可配置区间。

受“新冠”疫情影响，2020 年上半年主要轻工子板块收入业绩承压，随着国内疫情的有效控制，下半年需求整体改善趋势明确，预计各细分板块Q3 景气恢复，业绩回暖改善。

聚焦轻工20 年三季报前瞻，下半年需求整体回暖趋势下，预计家居行业增速较Q2 环比改善明显，造纸行业在纸价提升下盈利有望改善。建议持续关注下半年交房回暖带来的家居消费回暖，关注随着旺季来临的纸价改善。

我们不同于市场普遍认知的观点在于盈趣科技并非一家电子烟企业，而是一家创新消费电子与物联网应用场景下的产品孵化企业。公司的业务逻辑类似于实业中的风险投资，通过大量的产品孵化，发现未来能够获得市场认可的爆款产品，并引发业绩成长曲线的突变。我们认为该商业模式有可能被长期打通：1）创新消费电子产品升级的大趋势是经济发展和消费者对功能属性追求提升的产物，该赛道存在较为宽广的扩张边界。2）该业务模式具有较高的客户粘性和进入壁垒。由于深度切入产品前端研发设计，公司可显著提升客户粘性并保持较高的毛利率。其研发人员的长期积累和柔性化产线的建设能力则提升了该细分领域中的竞争优势。

地产新房销售及二手房交易持续向好有望支撑家居H2 消费需求回升，重点推荐经营稳健向好的家居企业顾家家居、志邦家居。文化办公用品需求韧性凸显，秋季开学、阳光采购推进利好文具龙头企业，重点推荐晨光文具、齐心集团。消费电子景气向好催化产业链包装需求，重点推荐裕同科技。文化纸三季度涨价延续，企业盈利有望逐步修复，建议关注太阳纸业。