随着疫情影响的逐步缓和，竣工逻辑回归将带动厨电短期需求的回补；行业长期成长空间广阔，更新需求逐步释放以及新厨电品类规模的提高，整体厨电行业的增速有望再次切换至较高水平。

本周IQOS 发布三季报，新型烟草景气持续稳健向上；家居建议重点关注兑现的定制家居及软体龙头；造纸提价兑现、盈利能力逐季向上，回调坚定布局！

2020 年9 月社零总额当月同比上升3.3%（Wind 一致预期为+2.25%），增速环比提升2.8pct。其中，家具类零售额当月同比增速显著修复，建议重点关注。2020年9 月家具类零售额当月同比下降0.6%，降幅环比缩小3.6pct。此外，对于竣工数据的短期回落，我们认为竣工缺口的回补是刚需，可能会有所延后但不会消失。

上周，APP、太阳纸业等再发提价函，从 11 月 1 日起，文化纸和白卡纸在目前执行价基础上再提300 元/吨，这是继国庆前提价后的再一次提价落地。自今年6 月开始，以文化纸和白卡纸为主的纸种累计多次提价，吨纸盈利明显增强

Lawn mowers have supported people in their landscaping duties over the last few generations. The lawn mower is a category of garden equipment that includes watermanagement equipment, trimmers & hedges, and hand tools. The global demand for various garden equipment, machinery, products, and tools, including accessories, was estimated at about $270 billion in 2019 and is expected to hit a value of $575 billion by 2026. Created in 1830 by Edwin Budding of England, the lawn mower was patented for the first time in the US in 1868. After World War II, lawn mowers gained prominence as families migrated to the suburbs and found themselves caring for larger yards. Cecil Pond developed the first ride-on lawn mower in 1956, and today, the latest trend is robotic lawn mowers. The lawn mower has developed over the years from a large, hard-to-maneuver tool into a complex family of equipment with various characteristics and different degrees of speed and cutting accuracy. The technology has changed the design of homes, parks, and fields worldwide. Manicured lawns were no longer confined to the aristocrats' estates-with the easy and inexpensive cutting devices; most middle-class homeowners were able to keep safe and desirable lawns to enhance their properties. In the 1870s, lawn mowers had become so easy to use and priced fairly, that they became more popular in American landscapes.

2020 年1-9 月全国住宅商品房销售面积103614 万平方米，同比下降1.0%，降幅继续收窄，降幅比1-8 月收窄1.5pct。单月数据看，2020 年9 月，全国住宅商品房销售面积16414 万平方米，同比上涨7.7%，单月销售显著改善，地产销售持续向好。

整体来看，四季度我们建议配置向零售/出口家居和造纸倾斜，均是边际改善明显，业绩确定性较高的板块，风险收益比处于可配置区间。

受“新冠”疫情影响，2020 年上半年主要轻工子板块收入业绩承压，随着国内疫情的有效控制，下半年需求整体改善趋势明确，预计各细分板块Q3 景气恢复，业绩回暖改善。

聚焦轻工20 年三季报前瞻，下半年需求整体回暖趋势下，预计家居行业增速较Q2 环比改善明显，造纸行业在纸价提升下盈利有望改善。建议持续关注下半年交房回暖带来的家居消费回暖，关注随着旺季来临的纸价改善。