投资建议：总结来看，Q4 板块基金抱团高端白酒效应更为强化，大众品相对回归常态。我们认为这背后的原因主要来自于两方面：1）白酒消费场景复苏回暖；2）2020 年在疫情黑天鹅事件下，高端白酒表现出较强的需求韧性，是确定性较强的优质标的。

4Q20 基金持仓食品饮料比例继续上升，基金重仓食品饮料股票市值占基金投资股票总市值的10.0%，环比提升1.0pct，其中基金重仓白酒、其他酒类和非酒类食品股票市值分别占基金投资股票总市值的8.4%、0.2%和1.4%。从基金重仓参与家数与重仓市值变动角度看，食品饮料整体仓位持续上升，白酒备受青睐。

我们选取2021 年食品饮料交易策略两条主线：一是坚守行业龙头长期持有，如五粮液、贵州茅台、山西汾酒、海天味业、伊利股份等；二是寻找行业低估值同期长期成长逻辑持续的股票，可能短期获得超额收益，如中炬高新、煌上煌、嘉必优等。此外，考虑到部分企业处于基本面底部，未来具有改善预期，可重点关注恒顺醋业、涪陵榨菜、洋河股份等。

国内餐饮市场规模持续增长、连锁化发展带动标准化食材需求不断扩容，传统生鲜食材供应链难以满足需求，催生供应链企业规模化发展；相对初级生鲜，速冻食品子赛道竞争激烈度较低，产品附加值较高，盈利模式较清晰稳定，有望持续受益、强者更强。亚洲渔（A20363.SZ）、千味央厨（A20196.SZ）等速冻食品企业主要围绕B 端渠道开展垂直运营，近年业务规模实现稳步增长。建议增持安井食品，受益标的三全食品等。

板块基金持仓概述：板块持仓稳居第一，白酒仓位明显提升。食品饮料板块持仓比例稳居第一。2020 年报基金食品饮料整体持仓继续提升，持仓比例18.54%，环比上升2.66pct。主要系白酒、啤酒仓位上行，持仓比例分别环比上升2.64pct、0.28pct 至15.13%、0.52%。食品饮料板块超配幅度由2020Q3 的7.96%上升至2020Q4 的9.47%，环比上升1.51pct。

The global confectionery market is analyzed on the basis of its prospects and future growth rate. The report highlights numerous factors that influence the growth of confectionery products, which include market forecast, drivers, restraints, opportunities, and role of different key players operating in the market. The report analyses government regulations, policies, and patents to provide information on the current market trends in different regions and suggests future growth opportunities.

卤制品行业规模有多大？考虑疫情对于行业的影响，我们预计卤制品行业2020年规模为2888亿元左右，2016-2021年CAGR为6%。行业中参考较多的两个数据间的差异主要来自于下游消费场景的统计区别。卤制品行业中休闲卤制品规模预计为1235亿元，余下为餐桌（佐餐）及情景消费。

去年12 月至今年1 月初板块涨幅较大，估值在高位。但今年年初，国内疫情再度散点发生，市场担忧疫情扩散以及人口流动限制政策会对白酒春节旺季产生较大影响。因此市场对白酒公司业绩增长预期有所降低，板块整体回调。

Molasses is a byproduct of the sugar refining industry. A hundred tons of sugar cane will give 10-11 tons of sugar and 34 tons of molasses. Sugar cane molasses is an organic waste material obtained from raw sugar during the refining process at sugar refineries. The effects of cane molasses percentage replacement on bitumen were examined by means of a various laboratory tests including PG (Performance Grade), RTFO (Rolling Thin- Film Oven).

Modern consumers are inclined to pursue a healthy lifestyle with a focus on healthy produce and their means of manufacture, raw materials sources, and impact on production and consumption of packaged foods and bottled beverages on human health and environmental sustainability. However, the market also experiences a visible shift among consumers to non-conventional and healthy food choices that are becoming alternatives to traditional confectionery and packaged food and synthetic sugar substitutes. Although conventional beverages, including soft drinks and energy drinks, are currently favored in terms of price and flavor, the changing consumption habits and lifestyle choices are driving the growth of naturally sweetened and flavored beverages. The success of natural sugar substitutes is crucial in beverages as consumers find changes in after taste, especially in beverages, more than a bakery and other food items.