去年12 月至今年1 月初板块涨幅较大，估值在高位。但今年年初，国内疫情再度散点发生，市场担忧疫情扩散以及人口流动限制政策会对白酒春节旺季产生较大影响。因此市场对白酒公司业绩增长预期有所降低，板块整体回调。

Molasses is a byproduct of the sugar refining industry. A hundred tons of sugar cane will give 10-11 tons of sugar and 34 tons of molasses. Sugar cane molasses is an organic waste material obtained from raw sugar during the refining process at sugar refineries. The effects of cane molasses percentage replacement on bitumen were examined by means of a various laboratory tests including PG (Performance Grade), RTFO (Rolling Thin- Film Oven).

Modern consumers are inclined to pursue a healthy lifestyle with a focus on healthy produce and their means of manufacture, raw materials sources, and impact on production and consumption of packaged foods and bottled beverages on human health and environmental sustainability. However, the market also experiences a visible shift among consumers to non-conventional and healthy food choices that are becoming alternatives to traditional confectionery and packaged food and synthetic sugar substitutes. Although conventional beverages, including soft drinks and energy drinks, are currently favored in terms of price and flavor, the changing consumption habits and lifestyle choices are driving the growth of naturally sweetened and flavored beverages. The success of natural sugar substitutes is crucial in beverages as consumers find changes in after taste, especially in beverages, more than a bakery and other food items.

春节消费市场受疫情管控政策影响下，我们认为短期速冻&复调板块相对受益；卤制品&乳制品&啤酒&白酒略有影响，考虑低基数实现修复性快增长的概率仍高；其他板块影响相对中性。（1）白酒板块，疫情散发影响部分节前白酒消费，节后有望同比明显改善，综合判断春节旺季白酒消费具备弹性。节前板块望维持震荡行情，期待旺季动销验证后再次凝聚共识，建议继续紧抱白酒龙头。首推贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖；推荐酒鬼酒、今世缘、洋河股份、古井贡酒。（2）食品板块，在疫情相对可控背景下，我们认为食品板块可按三条主线布局：①疫情下短期受益、长期加速的新消费板块龙头，首推安井食品、颐海国际，推荐三全食品、天味食品。②短期疫情略有影响，长期成
长逻辑不改，短期若有回调可择机布局，推荐绝味食品、华润啤酒、重庆啤酒、伊利股份、蒙牛乳业、现代牧业。③短期疫情影响有限，长期逻辑未变，可继续看长做长布局，推荐中国飞鹤、海天味业、恒顺醋业。

近期2021 年初疫情呈现区域性点状反弹特点，疫情时间点与2020 年明显不同，对酒水影响或呈现区域分化。分区域，“原地过年”政策下，地产酒或损益不均，人口输出型省份或因人口回流降低而受损，相应人口输入型省份或边际受益；分价位，消费升级趋势延续，故次高端及以
上影响较小，大众节日送礼价格带或受负面影响；分企业，一线名酒消费场景影响小，确定性仍强。

疫情近期点状爆发，政府出于防疫考虑，鼓励居民就地过节，并对大型聚会及聚餐进行限制。对白酒消费影响如下：1、公司年会、大型聚会（家族、同学会等）等活动取消，白酒消费场景消失，但小范围的亲友聚餐受影响较小；2、春节回乡人数减少，相应的走亲访友的礼品赠送减少。此次疫情虽然有所抬头，但防控措施较20 年春节到位，料对白酒消费影响要远小于去年同期。

国内疫情有所反复，各省市纷纷倡导就地过年，将催化春节前后居家消费场景，增加速冻食品、休闲食品、复调等消费需求。疫情风险发酵或对连锁小业态有短期的负面影响，但优质龙头有望进一步逆势拿店，占据优质点位，长期向好。站在当下时点，展望后续建议关注：第一，受益于居家消费场景的板块，包括速冻板块、休闲食品板块、烘焙原料等；第二，疫情期间逆势拓张，长期向好的连锁业态，如卤制品板块；第三，看前期因为短期业绩扰动，有充分调整的相关标的，当前估值水平较低，且随着股权激励等落地，员工和高管积极性充沛；第四，长期来看，坚守成长性和确定性兼备的优质标的，看长可获得可观稳定收益，建议精选各子行业龙头。

本周我们组织线上策略会，邀请多家上市公司及渠道经销商进行交流，针对白酒、啤酒、乳制品、调味品等多品类的备货、动销、库存情况进行讨论，白酒我们邀请四川、河南、江苏、安徽、湖南等主要市场中具有代表性的经销商对当前销售情况进行分析。经过此次线上交流，对食饮板块春节旺季销售情况有全局性、系统性把握，我们整体认为：21 年的春节不同于20 年，不会简单重复彼时行情，消费者心态稳定和补偿性消费是旺季仍旺的前提，业绩弹性和景气度延续仍然看得到。疫情对于不同品类、区域、价格带的影响不同，行情也应当由板块的β 向优秀个股的α 转变。

据中国产业信息网，国内生鲜约5 万亿规模，从产业链角度可分为生产端、流通端、消费端三段，本身兼具产品、品牌、渠道价值，即消费者最终支付价格应包括： 1）满足生活必需品需求的产品价值；2）基于品牌认知度的品牌溢价；3）基于现有渠道满足终端“多快好省”需求而产生的渠道替换成本。国内生鲜产业链现状在于，在上下游分散、中游基础设施、供应链解决方案发展不足前提下，各级渠道商不愿横向或纵向延伸，消费者最终买单花费金额较高，而上游产业链环节拥有者均不赚钱（以一斤在上海销售的陕西苹果为例，据草根数据估算，其流通成本1.7 倍于生产端价格，且其中约68%为包含渠道利润、损耗在内的可变成本）；高额流通成本映射产业链痛点、并加剧痛点形成，存在严重效率问题。

Radio-frequency identification (RFID) is a type of data collection method, using low-power radio waves to transmit and receive information between tags and readers. In comparison to using barcode scanning for data collection, RFID does not require user-initiated, line-of-sight actions and can read and write to hundreds of tags within a reading area at the same time. Food safety regulations and the need for precise traceability makes RFID's association with the food and beverage industry exceptional. The use of RFID in food refers to companies conducting processes of manufacturing, packaging, and food storage. Such industries operate with a specific and personalized collection of food safety protocols and procedures, requiring a range of critical data points relating to each food product being produced. Relevant data include suggested dates of use, proper labeling, processing of food, product weight, and registration conditions, such as temperature and humidity.