复盘日本乳业发展史，政策为先。日本乳制品发展历史较久，二战后的“学生奶”计划明显提振乳制品消费，为日本乳制品总量发展打下坚实基础。另一方面，政府主导调控生乳供给，起到均衡供需、平抑奶价的作用。当前，日本乳制品行业已进入成熟期，消费者心智成熟，产业链基础扎实，乳制品内部结构从液乳向干乳等品类转移。从原奶周期看，尽管在日本政府 的强管控下原奶周期仍然存在，因此我们认为原奶周期不可避免，强计划主要帮助上游生产拉平周期、降低振幅。产业链来看，上游日本“小奶农”体系下诞生出“一元收集，多元销售”的供应链体系，重塑产业链地位，弱势奶农群体在供应链上 获得较高话语权，而下游乳企基本都有百年历史，但是议价能力弱，是成本的接受者。

本周 HTI 跟踪的六类消费品，成本指数多数下跌。啤酒跌幅居前，现货/期货分别下跌 1.51%/1.81%。调味品其次，现货/期货分别下跌 1.00%/0.96%。具体来看，本周包材现期价格全面下跌。玻璃跌幅居前，现货/期货分别下跌 3.63%/3.67%。铝材价格小幅回落，现货较上周下降 1.73%，较年初上升 10.39%。直接原材料价格涨跌互现，蔬菜/鸡肉/棕榈油现货上涨 1.65%/1.36%/1.05%。大豆/白糖/小 麦现货下跌 1.17%/0.37%/0.19%。期货方面，本周小麦期货价格跌幅达 4.04%，白糖/大豆/棕榈油期货分别上涨 0.85%/0.69%/0.38%。本周柴油现货较上周下跌 0.42%，月度环比下跌 0.17%，布油期货较上周下跌 1.82%，月度环比下跌 4.56%。

Pretzels are crisp, brittle, and salted baked snack foods made of flour dough. These are available in various shapes and have shiny outer surfaces. Raw materials that are used to produce pretzels are flour, yeast, leavening agents, and shortenings. Different varieties of pretzels are available in the market in terms of shape and flavor. Companies sell pretzels as on-the-go snacks in packages, and some sell freshly made pretzels at foodservice outlets. The modern production process of pretzels is completely automated. It involves multiple steps, such as mixing the dough, forming pretzels, dipping, and salting, cooking, and packaging. These steps vary depending on the type of pretzel.

Beyond Meat, Archer Daniel’s Midland, and Kellogg’s Morningstar Farms are Market Share of Top 4 Companies in Global Plant-based Food, 2021 industry titans leading from the forefront. More conventional and established rivals, such as Nestlé, is attempting to gain a competitive advantage by expanding their plant-based product portfolios, strengthening their distribution networks, and launching various advertisements.

24Q2中信食饮板块公募基金持仓比环比-3.7pct至9.5%，超配比环比-2.9pct 至 2.8%；仓位回落主要系消费弱复苏延续，多数子板块处春节后消费淡季、业绩有所承压；此外，资金流向红利资产行业、北向资金流出亦是重要因素。分板块看，24Q2 白酒/啤酒/乳制品/调味品/速冻食品持仓比环比-3.08/-0.20/ -0.32/-0.11/+0.05pct，白酒持仓回落但高端酒仍居持仓前列；啤酒减配系高基数/雨水天气扰动；乳制品减配系 Q2 淡季龙头乳企控货调整，业绩或有波 动；调味品小幅减仓；速冻龙头估值渐回性价比区间，带动板块持仓小幅回升。当前食饮板块正处低估值/低预期，建议把握结构分化和低位配置机会。

食品饮料新周期：收缩经营，回归 PB-ROE 框架。（1）宏观层面：经济走向高质量发展，期待需求回暖。根据广发宏观，2023 年以来短期总需求不足，长期看实际 GDP 增长中枢在 5%左右。（2）行业层面：我国食品饮 料行业走向量减价增，其中白酒行业产量经历3年出清后平稳，价格长期与PPI同步；大众品行业类似美国1980s 和日本 1990s，走向量减价增。量减价增背景下，食品饮料行业顺势收缩经营——去杠杆、去产能、减少筹资、自由现金流持续增长。（3）食品饮料新周期，市场有望回归 PB-ROE 框架。2022 年以来 ROE 分子端 EPS 预期较弱，导致市场更多关注分母端——指向高股息。未来在我国需求回暖、EPS 预期修正后，市场风格有望回归至持续的高 ROE，食品饮料板块龙头价值有望凸显。

Frozen French fries are manufactured from potatoes and served hot in different shapes, including crinkle-cut, thin strips, curly, and waffles. Frozen French fries can be deep-fried or baked and are a convenient snack worldwide. The growth of the global frozen French fries market is attributed to the expanding count of critical players offering their products with the incorporation of different cuisine flavors and seasonings. These key players extensively offer their products through online food delivery services and retail outlets. Retail services and foodservice chains have made ordering food items easy and convenient. Hence, all these factors collectively drive the frozen French fries market during the forecast period.

Frozen French fries are manufactured from potatoes and served hot in different shapes, including crinkle-cut, thin strips, curly, and waffles. Frozen French fries can be deep-fried or baked and are a convenient snack worldwide. The growth of the global frozen French fries market is attributed to the expanding count of critical players offering their products with the incorporation of different cuisine flavors and seasonings. These key players extensively offer their products through online food delivery services and retail outlets. Retail services and foodservice chains have made ordering food items easy and convenient. Hence, all these factors collectively drive the frozen French fries market during the forecast period.

Frozen French fries are manufactured from potatoes and served hot in different shapes, including crinkle-cut, thin strips, curly, and waffles. Frozen French fries can be deep-fried or baked and are a convenient snack worldwide. The growth of the global frozen French fries market is attributed to the expanding count of critical players offering their products with the incorporation of different cuisine flavors and seasonings. These key players extensively offer their products through online food delivery services and retail outlets. Retail services and foodservice chains have made ordering food items easy and convenient. Hence, all these factors collectively drive the frozen French fries market during the forecast period.