我们对 12-15 年白酒行业上一轮进行了复盘，并于本轮调整期对比，当下产业进入 “酒企煎熬期”，渠道包袱减轻，杠杆收缩，市场库存下降，接下来两个季度业绩 承压但股价有望反转，结合当下板块持仓处于低位，整体上我们认为上行风险大于 下行风险。高端酒与强势地产酒有望领涨，更应关注老窖、汾酒企业的进化。

Culinary tourism refers to tours where local cuisine plays a vital role. Culinary tourists are more interested in local food culture rather than gourmet. Local food gives travelers an authentic connection with their destination. They like to experience local heritage, culture, and people through different types of food and drink.

Baby food products help in fulfilling the nutritional requirements of babies and help in their physical growth and development. Infant formula products are fed to babies up to 12 months of age. Their composition is formulated to recreate the consistency of breast milk

Confectionery products are packaged food items that are generally rich in sugar and carbohydrates. Currently, sugar-free confections are also gaining popularity due to the rising awareness about their health benefits. Chocolates, sugar confectionery, and gums are the three major product segments of the global confectionery market.

Confectionery products are packaged food items that are generally rich in sugar and carbohydrates. Currently, sugar-free confections are also gaining popularity due to the rising awareness about their health benefits. Chocolates, sugar confectionery, and gums are the three major product segments of the global confectionery market.

Brazil nuts are a type of nuts native to the Amazon rainforest that spans across Brazil, Bolivia, and Peru. Being energy-dense and highly nutritious, these nuts are one of the most concentrated dietary sources of selenium, an essential trace mineral.

Breakfast food refers to the types of food typically consumed in the morning as the first meal of the day. The global breakfast food market encompasses the production, distribution, and consumption of food products specifically designed for consumption during breakfast meals.

2025 年 2 月，食品饮料板块上涨 4.5%。除软饮料外，子板块均收涨。其中， 白酒、其它酒和乳品涨幅较大，分别上涨 5.72%、4.43%和 5.47%。同期，沪深 300 上涨 2.5%，食品饮料板块跑赢大盘。尽管跑赢沪深指数，我们认为食饮行 情仍是市场整体行情的一部分。2025 年 2 月，31 个一级行业中仅 6 个下跌， 其余 25 个行业均上涨。上涨行业主要集中在消费和科技领域。

基础设施尚未完善，电商仍处萌芽期。21世纪初期，我国互联网电商仍处于萌芽阶段，2003年淘宝网成立，标志着我国电商行业正式起步。虽然 该阶段互联网用户数较快增长，但整体基数较低，叠加网络支付与物流体系不成熟，消费者线上购物习惯尚未形成。据CNNIC数据，中国互联网 用户从1999年的890万提升到2004年的9400万，过去一年有过网购行为的用户占比从1999年的8.79%提升到2004年的40.40%，但整体基数仍偏低。

2 月我们重点跟踪的 8 个行业中仅 3 个保持正增长，5 个负增长。个位数增长的行业包括餐饮（+3.9%）、啤酒（+2.8%）和软饮料（+1.5%）；个位数下降的行业包括次高端及以上白酒（-7.2%）、速冻食品（-4.5%）、调味品（-3.8%）和乳制品（-2.5%）；大众及以下白酒（-13.5%）出现双位数下降。与上月相比，6 个行业增速下滑，2 个增速改善。今年 2 月同比基数较高，加之去年下半年以来的惯性因素，所以数据低迷。1-2 月累计同比看，除白酒行业外数据较为平稳。