从2 月到3 月初的走势来看，食品板块中必选属性较强标的（如：千禾味业、涪陵榨菜、克明面业等）阶段性涨幅在30%左右，而白酒板块在2 月初经历了10-15%的调整后，股价走势相对平稳。3 月16 日以来板块整体又出现了较大幅度的调整，主要系海外疫情的扩散，油价等资产的暴跌引发了投资人对于全球经济增速的预期调整，这是我们在1 月初做分析讨论时所未曾预想到的变量。

The popularity of organic baby food across the world is growing. The demand for baby food has increased with the trend of both parents working. With the increased disposable income, parents are able to compensate homemade food with branded organic baby food. For example, Indian brand, Mimmo Organics, is experiencing e-commerce success with its organic baby food business in India and continues to focus on the domestic market growth before venturing the overseas market. Currently, the brand collects highest revenues from Amazon India, followed by Firstcry.com. Mimmo’s baby food products are certified as organic and so are the ingredients used. Mimmo Organics meets the US and EU quality grade on organic standards and are accredited by the USDA, EU Organic, and India Organic as certified organic.

Bread is among the household staples and there has been an increasing demand for greater variety of bread such as loaves, baguettes, rolls, burger buns, sandwich bread, ciabatta among others. The increasing use of these products by B2B industries such as HORECA, QSRs, cafes and others along with the household has driven the growth of market. Furthermore, the demand for low-carb, high-fiber, multigrain, and fortified bread due to increase in health consciousness among the consumers have offered lucrative opportunities to bread manufacturers. Apart from this rapid urbanization, rising industrialization and rise in disposable income also supports the growth of bread market in developing countries.

食品饮料整体销售概况：销售额同比增长46.34%。2020 年2 月，食品饮料淘系平台线上整体销售额同比增长46.34%，达到227.68 亿元。总体来看，2 月食品饮料销售呈现“量价齐升”的态势，其中销量同比增长6.86%至6.46 亿件，销售均价同比增长36.95%至35.24 元/件。

2 月阿里线上电商数据披露，我们重点对白酒、乳制品、调味品、保健食品、休闲食品及奶粉等子行业线上销售情况进行分析。需要指出的是，2020年春节在1 月底，较2019 年有所提前，春节旺季销售或存错位现象，我们结合1 月和2 月数据合并分析以平滑春节错位现象；新冠疫情自1 月底全面爆发，实体经济冻结，消费场景与消费习惯发生改变，“宅经济”助推线上消费增长。

节后食品板块相对白酒表现突出，体现市场对确定性的偏好，食品确定性溢价延续的同时，继续看好白酒确定性品种的估值修复空间，重点推荐高端茅台/五粮液+地产龙头古井/今世缘，推荐老窖/汾酒/顺鑫。食品板块寻求业绩超预期潜力标的的同时，建议关注稳健经营龙头的调节能力和业绩稳定性，推荐成长标的飞鹤（H股）、良品（零售组覆盖），稳健防御性标的伊利/双汇/榨菜，弹性标的绝味。

以史鉴今：2008 年以“4 万亿”为代表的宏观政策对白酒行业V 型反转起到至关重要的作用。2008 年金融危机下白酒行业景气度明显回落，4 万亿政策的推动作用在2008 年白酒行业呈现短暂调整与V 型反转期间充分反映，政策刺激效应2 个季度后在酒企报表开始显现。白酒复苏周期主要经历了三个阶段，按高端、中档地产酒、次高端的顺序依次爆发。

历史上白酒行业经历了多次大大小小的周期，近20 年以来也出现了四轮景气周期，分别于03、09、15、18 年开启。白酒近期的调整，我们应该去思考下一轮的牛市什么时候启动，启动的观察要素有哪些变得尤为重要。白酒板块先行指标的 “三观”研究变得有十分的重要。本文回顾了近20 年白酒行业的一些变化，系统性的总结出了宏观/中观以及微观的观察指标。以期能帮助投资者更加准确的把握白酒板块的投资机会！

白酒方面：主流酒企年报收官顺利，当前积极应对疫情挑战。1）高端白酒：名酒龙头顺利收官，应对疫情定力足。大众品方面：必选龙头业绩保持稳健，部分细分龙头超预期表现亮眼。