白酒行业基本面仍在短期磨底阶段，当前的新增需求仍比较分散，经销商和终端的库存仍处于消化阶段。高端白酒的一批价格仍在低位震荡，但茅台再次开启经销商提前打款的政策，确定性仍最具优势。短期负面情绪释放有望提供白酒板块的中长期买点，建议关注高端白酒及地产白酒龙头，如贵州茅台/五粮液/泸州老窖/古井贡酒。大众消费品方面，疫情对于需求的影响相对有限，以米面粮油等为代表的必选消费品受影响程度相对较小。自下而上长周期配置具备核心竞争优势的乳制品龙头伊利以及细分行业龙头洽洽和绝味。重视调味品的配置价值，建议重点关注：中炬高新、涪陵榨菜、恒顺醋业、海天味业。

2020 年3 月，线上销售景气度维持。2020Q1，膳食营养补充剂、休闲食品乳制品、酒类均实现双位数增长。整体而言，在疫情影响下，各行业线上Q1 表现良好、龙头效应明显。

我国婴幼儿奶粉对外依赖度仍较高，此次海外疫情的爆发将对进口奶粉的流通、产量以及形象造成一定程度的影响，但婴幼儿奶粉的消费需求具有较强的刚性，近年来强势崛起的国产奶粉迎来机遇，有望承接部分流出需求。但我国奶粉原辅料进口依赖度较高，并且我国疫情爆发对国产奶粉企业造成了一定的冲击，我们认为品牌建设能力强，供应链布局较全且管理能力较强，供应链对外依赖度较低以及渠道管控能力较强的国产奶粉企业有望乘势而起。

疫情影响下家庭用餐需求增加，快速、简便的速冻食品成为采购囤货首选。商超里的速冻食品在1 月底至2 月中旬出现缺货现象，经销商库存一度接近全面断货。从疫情发展来看，预计Q1 整体外出就餐占比不会完成恢复，家庭备餐需求维持较高水平，利好速冻食品销售。尤其在3 月，物流恢复后，市场供给能够迅速提升，增速远好于2 月水平。

3 月阿里渠道白酒销售额为2.93 亿元，同比增长38.26%，环比提升16.49%，受疫情影响，3 月线上白酒销售额增速放缓，具体来看，贵州茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖销售额分别同比增长124.57%、-1.25%、178.91%，受益于加大直营渠道投放，3 月贵州茅台线上销售额实现大幅提升，高端酒需求仍较为强劲；均价及销量方面，白酒均价同比增长42.29%，销售量同比增长-2.84%；集中度方面，CR3 线上市占率从19 年3 月的27.32%提升至20 年3 月的35.58%。

消费品始终处于“升级”过程中，需求端的变化+供给端外卖兴起带来的强冲击下传统大单品方便面受到挑战，新的大单品自加热小火锅应运而生。新品类出现亦需要对消费者进行教育，这次疫情恰好提供了一个“契机”：外出就餐和外卖两种选择的消失，迫使消费者仅能宅家就餐，我们相信更多的消费者认识了方便食品后，其市场空间将进一步被打开。

全网分析：疫情利好线上，销售增速大增。1）销售额：2020年3 月单月全网休闲零食成交金额58.78 亿元，同比增长36.21%，增速稳步提升（M1：+5.37%；M2：+29.03%），我们认为在疫情影响下，线下恢复较慢，线上消费增加，同时女神节刺激消费效果明显。其中销量2.25 亿，同比+39.56%，平均客单价26.10 元，同比-2.40%。2）市占率：2020 年3 月CR3 为19.40%，同比下滑1.88pct，CR5 为21.68%，同比下滑1.46pct，CR10 为24.85%，同比下滑1.92pct。龙头市占率下滑，我们预计与直播带货有关，新店门槛降低，销售占比增加。

The sports-nutrition industry is rapidly becoming mainstream, which is pushing the market for dairy ingredients, such as whey protein, casein, and milk proteins, among others. Dairy ingredients render desired nutritional value to the sports food products, thus, contributing toward their increasing usage in various supplements. Dairy ingredients are important sources of protein. For example, whey is well known for its high quality, high absorption, and superior content of amino acids, essential for muscle growth. This factor makes it a popular sports-nutrition ingredient. The use of whey and lactose ingredients, both in the processed food and nutritional sectors, has helped the market grow. Research suggests that dairy proteins, such as whey proteins and milk proteins, can also act as anti-aging agents. Moreover, these proteins might help decrease stress and reduce the cortisol concentration levels. Awareness among the masses, to become fit, remain in shape, and enhance immunity, has led to a significant growth in the demand for dairy proteins in the urban areas.

The modern generation of consumers is inclined to pursue a healthy lifestyle with a rising focus on how healthier produce is manufactured, how raw materials are sourced, and what is the impact of the production and consumption of these foods and beverages on environmental sustainability, workplace conditions, and worker sustenance. Apart from this, there is a visible shift among consumers to non- conventional foods that are becoming alternatives to traditional meat and dairy. Although conventional food and beverages, including meat and dairy products, are favored in terms of price and flavor, the changing consumption habits and lifestyle choices are driving the growth of products with ethical labels in recent years.

我们坚定认为，疫情不改本轮白酒结构性景气趋势，在不发生全球疫情失控、严重影响中国经济的黑天鹅下，消费升级延续加上基建投资加速，白酒景气将延续。短期需求暂时空缺、行业动销受挫，致板块估值调整到底部位置，随着消费启动预计将带动估值修复。看全年及未来，行业竞争加剧、企业表现分化：①高端酒竞争领先、格局清晰，茅台具备核心资产价值，抗跌属性强，随着批价管控合理，未来提价确定性更高。五粮液&老窖疫情中以价为先、战略坚定，向上趋势不改，当下估值较低、未来空间较大。②光瓶酒龙头顺鑫&次高端龙头汾酒，品牌力势能强、全国化扩张节奏不会被疫情打乱，看好发展趋势高确定性。③其他低估值地产龙头，今世缘、古井贡酒、口子窖、洋河股份，疫情影响致竞争加剧，积极应对可看长远，关注估值修复机会。