农夫山泉于2020 年4 月30 日凌晨向港交所递交了IPO 申请文件。公司是中国包装饮用水及饮料的龙头企业，也是中国包装饮用水市占率第一的品牌。根据Euromonitor 的数据，2017-2019 年软饮料全球零售额前10 大上市公司中，农夫山泉的增速是最快的。

板块基金持仓概述：Q1 板块持仓降至第二，白酒仓位继续下行，小食品加仓明显。 食品饮料板块持仓比例降至第二位，仅次于医药生物行业。受疫情影响，2020Q1 基 金食品饮料整体持仓略降，持仓比例 13.29%，环比下降 0.99pct，超配幅度由 2019Q4 的 8.06%下降至 2020Q1 的 6.90%，环比下降 1.16pct，主要系白酒仓位继续下行， 持仓比例环比下降 1.74pct，至 9.56%。

鲜奶市场增长靓丽，根据欧睿口径，15-19 年鲜奶销售额同比增长分别为 6.13%、8.22%、9.71%、10.67%、11.56%，连续 5 年持续增长并迈入双 位数增长阶段，欧睿预测鲜奶市场销售额 2019-2024 年 CAGR 为 6.56%， 2024 年或达 472 亿元，是乳业新的结构增长点。我们预计，鲜奶将是拉 动液态奶市场增长的主要力量，也将是乳企盈利的重点支撑品类之一， 有望孕育两个 500 亿以上市值的企业。

我国休闲零食市场规模破万亿，人均消费量对比海外发达国家仍 处于低位，目前处于消费升级及渠道融合阶段，未来行业仍有扩 容空间。行业整体较为分散，看好未来市场集中度上升。消费者 需求升级推动行业产品品质化、健康化、个性化发展，渠道线下 线上融合发展。行业痛点仍为产品具有一定的同质化特征以及进 入门槛较低等。我们认为，产品研发能力强，有能力把握消费者 口味需求及产品发展趋势，品牌建设能力强，线上线下全渠道布 局的休闲食品龙头有望依托其自身模式优势抢占市场份额。

20Q1 白酒重仓比例回落，大众品重仓比例有所上升。20Q1 食品 饮料行业重仓比例位居 SW 一级行业第二，白酒在 SW 三级子行业中重仓比 例继续稳居首位，Q1 重仓比例小幅回落至 4.90%，环降 0.81pct，重仓比例降 幅位居第三。

Extra virgin avocado oil has been gaining traction in the emerging markets such as the U.S., Canada, and Germany. This is attributed to rise in preference for avocado oil due to increase in the diseases such as diabetes, blood pressure, and coronary heart diseases. Furthermore, surge in health awareness and increase in consumption of healthy and nutritious cooking oil among health-conscious consumers are the key factors that drive the growth of the global extra virgin avocado oil market. Moreover, increase in number of applications of extra virgin avocado oil in production of cosmetics industry significantly contributes toward the growth of the global market. However, high cost of avocado oil, rise in concerns pertaining to storage, and small shelf life of the oil limit the market growth. On the contrary, upsurge in demand for trendy cosmetics such as nutricosmetics, which contains extra virgin avocado oil as ingredient, is anticipated to provide remunerative opportunities for market expansion.

The increasing rates of product innovations in the Indonesian and Malaysian markets are extensively driving the sales of whipping cream. The manufacturing companies are concentrating on the individual demands of the consumers, such as halal-certified, lactose-intolerance, clean-label, and soy-free products. Owing to a large presence of the Muslim population in these countries, the demand for halal-certified food products has witnessed a surge. Thus, the manufacturing brands, such as Anchor and Embog, are producing halal-certified whipping cream with proper labelling, to entice the consumers.  For instance, Indonesia only accepts its own Halal body. Thus Fonterra, a New Zealand-based company, launched a generic halal logo, which is used in anchor whipping cream, to share the same packaging with Indonesia. In Malaysia, the concentration of lactose-intolerant consumers is high, leading to the demand for lactose-free whipping cream. Thus, the manufacturers are introducing lactose-free whipping cream, to satiate the consumers’ demands. For instance, the brand, Paul's, offers lactose-free and gluten-free thickened cream made of cream, skimmed milk, milk solids, gelatin, and other ingredients. The product is apt for whipping, pouring, and cooking, resulting in its diverse application in the foodservice sector.

乳制品方面，生鲜乳价格继续下行。截至 2020 年 4 月 8 日，主产区生鲜乳 平均价为 3.62 元/公斤，环比继续下滑，同比上涨 2.3%，增速继续缩窄。

 休闲食品连锁行业进入扩张期，预计未来 3 年门店数量增速 10%+。 18 年我国休闲食品行业销售额 10297 亿元，12-18 年 CAGR12%。随 着休闲食品线上渠道红利逐渐消退，商超渠道客流量下滑，满足即食性 需求、体验感强的连锁门店模式有望进入快速扩张期。18 年休闲食品 连锁模式 5 大龙头（绝味\良品\煌上煌\紫燕\来伊份）门店数量 20668 家，收入 152 亿元，14-18 年门店数量和收入复合增速分别为 11%和 12%。我们认为随着休闲卤制品龙头快速扩张以及线上龙头加速布局 连锁门店，预计未来 3 年休闲食品行业连锁门店数量 CAGR10%+。

休闲食品线上 2012 年爆发，三只松鼠当年成立，迎电商渠道红利、坚果品类蓝海、IP 形象成功营造，叠加资本助力，发展 8 年 2019 年收入规模已超百亿。在线上增速趋缓，获客成本增加，流量红利消退的背景下，加之休闲食品即食随机性消费特点， 线下占比 80+%以上的渠道特征，未来线上线下渠道融合，多维度触达消费者成为休闲食品企业发展的必然趋势。疫情的冲击 又起到培育市场，加速渠道融合和行业整合的作用。本篇从线上线下来解析松鼠、百草味、良品、来伊份的过去及未来。 从线上看，传统电商增长趋缓，企业扩品拓扩渠做大规模。