或仍有高增长。电商快递件量规模扩张增速仍在，直播电商进一步崛起背景下，一方面网购消费渗透率进一步提升，另一方面网购消费行为的下沉化和碎片化推动了单快递包裹实物商品网购额的下行，快递行业相对上游电商或仍有超额成长性。24 年上半年快递行业业务量增速中枢稳步回归，我们预计，2024 全年快递行业业务量或仍能维持 15%-20%甚至更高的同比增长。此外恶性价格竞争受到监管有效规制的大背景下，我们分析头部企业基于规模效应-成本优势-定价策略的正向循环，有望实现业务量份额集中度的稳步提升。

The sustainable packaging market is a dynamic and rapidly evolving sector within the broader packaging industry. In recent times, the consumer packaging industry has witnessed significant transformations driven by the imperative of sustainability. The growing apprehensions about the environmental impact of single-use packaging have compelled both the public and regulatory bodies to urge companies to reconsider and revamp their packaging materials and processes, with a focus on ecological friendliness. Although these evolving expectations may pose challenges for certain businesses in this sector, those that are prepared to embrace sustainability could potentially thrive and expand in this changing environment.

5月份中国物流业景气指数为 51.8% ，环比回落 0.6个百分点，但继续保持在扩张区间。分项指数中业务总量指数、库存周转次数指数、资金周转率指数、固定资产投资完成额指数、业务活动预期指数等关键指标均处于景气区间，同时固定资产投资完成额指数、从业人员指数和业务活动预期指数呈连续回升态势。 

全球格局微妙而瞬息万变，逆全球化浪潮有所抬升。进一步，海外经济体以高通胀为主，国内大部分行业处于价格弱势触底阶段。我们按照涨价的幅度和确定性，将交运行业的投资逻辑做了梳理：1）外需驱动+供给受限，油轮；2）外需驱动但供给亦有压力，集运和航空货运；3）内需放量+价格平稳，港口、铁路以及公路；4）以价换量的平价消费品，电商快递和旅游航空。