锂电铜箔：锂电池负极关键材料、6 微米铜箔渗透率或将持续提升。锂电铜箔为锂电池负极材料载体和集流体，其约占锂电池总质量和总成本的13%和8%，典型锂离子电池8 微米锂电铜箔用量约为0.83kg/KWh。在新能源汽车补贴退坡情况下，提升动力电池能量密度成为关键，而由锂电铜箔由8 微米向6 微米转换将提升5%的电池能量密度，因此6 微米铜箔渗透率正显著提升且已具成本优势。而除了厚度外，锂电铜箔的质量均匀性、延伸率、抗拉强度等性能同样关键，国内厂商6 微米产品的综合性能相较海外同类型产品仍有差距，这也限制了国内6 微米产品在一线锂电池厂商产品中的应用。

Owing to its properties, such as high bonding capacity, low acidity, low thermal expansion coefficient, high chemical resistance, low wettability by molten metal, and good recyclability, zirconium is extremely suitable for use in foundry and refractories. These properties make zirconium suitable for use as a molding base material for sand casting and investment casting, in addition to its use as mold coating in die-casting and in refractory paints and washes to reduce the wettability of other foundry sands. It is mostly used in the form of sand and flour. Additionally, it is used in a wide range of refractory operations including refractory mortar, firebricks, or refractory linings for glass and metal furnaces, as well as fibers, nozzles, slide gates, valves, and grouts.

Of all the different kinds of metal packages, such as cans, drums, bottles, caps, and closures, cans have been the most popular. Ease of use and availability aided in the adoption of metal cans in several packaging applications over the last century. Additionally, consumer trends, such as a preference for small-size and multi-pack packaging formats, are supporting the volume growth of the global metal cans market (henceforth, referred to as the market studied). An increasing demand for mini-cans has been observed, especially in the Asia-Pacific markets, such as India, China, and Japan. Therefore, most of the beverage companies in the region are offering mini-cans, which generally contain smaller volumes of a products and cost less than the traditional canned products. This trend is resulting in more substantial unit consumption. Furthermore, with the increasing environmental concerns, consumers are demanding metal cans, owing to their low environmental impact. The high recyclability of metal cans is one of the significant drivers for the market studied in some regions, while in other regions, economic conditions and low price of canned goods remain key drivers for the market studied.

The Indian steel industry (henceforth referred to as the market studied) is considered as one of the few bright spots in the global steel industry. The steel industry in the country revived from the demonetization and the goods and services tax (GST) reform and is growing at a rapid pace. The market studied has transformed to a great extent over the past few years. The technological developments, though the adoption rate is low in the sector, have not only improved the delivery times, but also helped the industry in producing accurate designs of steel structures. The ongoing push for infrastructure development, coupled with favorable demographics, is improving the macroeconomic fundamentals, which translate into sustained growth in the steel industry. Projects, such as industrial corridors (connecting existing industrial cities and manufacturing sectors) and Sagarmala (connecting states through waterways), may increase India’s connectivity, reducing logistical costs of transportation across Indian states.

11 月，有色金属生产延续平稳运行态势，十种有色金属产量增速小幅回落；除黄金、稀土等少部分品种外，有色金属价格普遍走弱，截至 11 月底，铝、铜、锌、铅价格较上年末分别同比上涨 2.6%、下跌 2.1%、14.3%和 15.6%；有色金属外贸形势依然严峻，进出口均呈下滑态势；有色金属冶炼行业投资继续呈下滑态势，采选业投资缓慢回升；行业利润增长仍缺乏动力，采选业利润依然大幅下滑，冶炼领域效益实现小幅增长但增速下降。

11 月工业生产强势反弹，工业增加值大幅回升 1.5 个百分点至 6.2%。政策方面，《产业结构调整指导目录（2019 年本）》适度提高限制和淘汰标准。产量方面，铝合金产量 86.6 万吨，较上月大增 5.2 万吨；多晶硅月产量 3.23 万吨，同比增幅 53.8%；动力电池产量共计 9.0GWh，同比上升 10.5%。价格方面，特钢价格回升，化工新材料、多晶硅价格显著下跌。进出口方面，高新技术产品材料技术进口金额 1为 4.25 亿美元，同比 2.2%，转正为负。发行市场方面，8家在 A 股首发，融资总额 47.54 亿元。多晶硅价格持续下跌创历史新低；极薄取向硅钢产业化亟待提速。多晶硅价格短期将延续弱势；关键生产装备晶圆自动翻转倒片机实现国产，有望促进晶圆国产化。

铜产业链主要由上游铜矿采选、中游冶炼和下游深加工及高端合金化等组成。铜上游矿山产能集中于智利、秘鲁等南美国家，产能占比40%左右，矿山多为海外矿业巨头；精炼产能集中于中国，占比约45%，大型炼厂多为中国企业所有，中国作为最大的精炼铜消费国，占比约59%，但是生产加工严重依赖海外进口矿石资源，海外矿企具有较强的话语权。

5G 趋势下智能手机出货量预计恢复增长，新兴领域消费型锂电池对钴消费产生不可忽视的边际拉动。消费锂电池市场保持火热，春节前补库刺激下钴价止跌回升。看好2020 年钴行业供需格局改善和钴价反弹趋势，预计钴均价有望抬升20%至30-35 万元/吨，推荐寒锐钴业和当升科技，均维持“买入”评级。

2020 年黄金投资机会不容忽视。根据我们的研究框架，我们从实际利率、美元指数、经济类的避险因素上分析，认为2020 年上半年或是较好的做多黄金的时间窗口。

19 年金属需求端疲软 价格低迷拖累板块走势：受全球经济增速放缓、下游需求疲软影响，有色金属除黄金、稀土等少部分品种外价格普遍走弱，板块整体跑输大盘11.71 个百分点，在申万28 个行业中位列第22 位。从基金持仓来看，当前有色行业配置资金仅占基金股票总市值的1.24%，为六年来第二低；基金有色板块超配比例也降至-1.06%，为近年来较低水平。