铜箔行业发展由量转质，高性能差异化的电解铜箔是国内未来发展方向。电子和新能源产业快速发展，全球电解铜箔需求增长迅速，新增产能亦大幅上升。全球电解铜铜箔主要产自亚洲，其中日台占据主导地位，尤其在高精度电子铜箔技术优势明显，国内生产的电解铜箔多以常规型号为主。目前国内电解铜箔产品结构低端过剩，高端不足。因此生产高附加值的差异化产品是企业盈利的核心关键，建议关注量产高良率6 微米锂电铜箔的企业，如嘉元科技、诺德股份；以及生产高频高速PCB 铜箔的铜陵有色。

2020 年锂消费有望重回高景气时代。19 年受新能源汽车景气下滑影响，新增需求乏力，同比增速下滑9 个百分点。2020 年补贴退坡影响减弱，市场转入性价比驱动，爆款车型推出带动景气回升，锂消费将重回高增速赛道，至2025 年全球供需规模有望超80 万吨，年复合增速达18.6%。

12 月，有色金属生产延续平稳运行态势，十种有色金属产量增速小幅提升；主要有色金属工业品种价格走势呈现震荡分化走势，铜价反弹外，铝、铅、锌价格有所下滑；国际贸易环境依然复杂，有色金属进出口同比继续下滑；随着稳增长、减税降费等政策的实施，行业投资出现回升态势；行业利润增长仍缺乏动力，采选业利润依然大幅下滑，冶炼领域效益实现小幅增长但增速下降。

大通胀与大衰退（降息）是黄金上涨的两大驱动因素，演绎了金融变量对黄金价格的影响传导。随着全球化分工，产业发生转移，新兴经济体进行承接过程中大量进行工业化基础设施建设，对铜等基础金属需求增加，从而推升价格，为美国带来输入性通胀，刺激黄金价格上行。历史上，原油价格对美国通胀亦有较大影响，但随着美国页岩油开采成本下降，美国成为原油出口国后，原油对美国通胀的推动作用有所下降。

特斯拉交付量超预期，国内钴价上涨。特斯拉四季度财报中产量及交付量双超预期。数据显示，2019 年四季度特斯拉共计生产汽车10.49 万辆，环比增加9.1%，交付汽车11.21 万辆，环比增长15.2%，实际交付数据高于1 月初披露的经营数据。国内方面，2020 年1 月钴价上涨，数据显示1 月份长江有色市场钴平均报价上涨3.61%至28.7 万元/吨。整体来看，随着国产特斯拉产量放量，叠加2020 年国内新能源汽车补贴政策将保持相对稳定，国内整个新能源汽车产业链有望回暖。锂、钴作为上游原材料需求增加。相关标的，华友钴业、赣锋锂业。

锂电铜箔：锂电池负极关键材料、6 微米铜箔渗透率或将持续提升。锂电铜箔为锂电池负极材料载体和集流体，其约占锂电池总质量和总成本的13%和8%，典型锂离子电池8 微米锂电铜箔用量约为0.83kg/KWh。在新能源汽车补贴退坡情况下，提升动力电池能量密度成为关键，而由锂电铜箔由8 微米向6 微米转换将提升5%的电池能量密度，因此6 微米铜箔渗透率正显著提升且已具成本优势。而除了厚度外，锂电铜箔的质量均匀性、延伸率、抗拉强度等性能同样关键，国内厂商6 微米产品的综合性能相较海外同类型产品仍有差距，这也限制了国内6 微米产品在一线锂电池厂商产品中的应用。

Owing to its properties, such as high bonding capacity, low acidity, low thermal expansion coefficient, high chemical resistance, low wettability by molten metal, and good recyclability, zirconium is extremely suitable for use in foundry and refractories. These properties make zirconium suitable for use as a molding base material for sand casting and investment casting, in addition to its use as mold coating in die-casting and in refractory paints and washes to reduce the wettability of other foundry sands. It is mostly used in the form of sand and flour. Additionally, it is used in a wide range of refractory operations including refractory mortar, firebricks, or refractory linings for glass and metal furnaces, as well as fibers, nozzles, slide gates, valves, and grouts.

Of all the different kinds of metal packages, such as cans, drums, bottles, caps, and closures, cans have been the most popular. Ease of use and availability aided in the adoption of metal cans in several packaging applications over the last century. Additionally, consumer trends, such as a preference for small-size and multi-pack packaging formats, are supporting the volume growth of the global metal cans market (henceforth, referred to as the market studied). An increasing demand for mini-cans has been observed, especially in the Asia-Pacific markets, such as India, China, and Japan. Therefore, most of the beverage companies in the region are offering mini-cans, which generally contain smaller volumes of a products and cost less than the traditional canned products. This trend is resulting in more substantial unit consumption. Furthermore, with the increasing environmental concerns, consumers are demanding metal cans, owing to their low environmental impact. The high recyclability of metal cans is one of the significant drivers for the market studied in some regions, while in other regions, economic conditions and low price of canned goods remain key drivers for the market studied.

The Indian steel industry (henceforth referred to as the market studied) is considered as one of the few bright spots in the global steel industry. The steel industry in the country revived from the demonetization and the goods and services tax (GST) reform and is growing at a rapid pace. The market studied has transformed to a great extent over the past few years. The technological developments, though the adoption rate is low in the sector, have not only improved the delivery times, but also helped the industry in producing accurate designs of steel structures. The ongoing push for infrastructure development, coupled with favorable demographics, is improving the macroeconomic fundamentals, which translate into sustained growth in the steel industry. Projects, such as industrial corridors (connecting existing industrial cities and manufacturing sectors) and Sagarmala (connecting states through waterways), may increase India’s connectivity, reducing logistical costs of transportation across Indian states.

11 月，有色金属生产延续平稳运行态势，十种有色金属产量增速小幅回落；除黄金、稀土等少部分品种外，有色金属价格普遍走弱，截至 11 月底，铝、铜、锌、铅价格较上年末分别同比上涨 2.6%、下跌 2.1%、14.3%和 15.6%；有色金属外贸形势依然严峻，进出口均呈下滑态势；有色金属冶炼行业投资继续呈下滑态势，采选业投资缓慢回升；行业利润增长仍缺乏动力，采选业利润依然大幅下滑，冶炼领域效益实现小幅增长但增速下降。