2020 年 3 月以来，国内新冠疫情已逐步得到控制，但海外疫情日趋严峻。 预计国内汽车产销量短期下降，后续有望逐步改善。海外疫情恶化，或将影 响零部件海外收入、供应链及国内消费能力。整车及零部件短期业绩承压， 后续有望逐步改善。本次疫情属于一次性冲击，长期来看不改变汽车行业整 体触底反弹的大趋势。刺激内需是可能方向，汽车行业有望受益，建议关注 乘用车、重卡、新能源、智能网联等受益标的，重点推荐长安汽车、上汽集 团、华域汽车、拓普集团等，关注潍柴动力、中国重汽等。

汽车行业指数 2 月宽幅震荡，涨跌幅位于申万行业指数第 20 名。2月 （2020.2.5-2020.3.16）全 A 指数涨跌幅为-1.02%，汽车行业涨跌幅为 -0.68%，领先大盘 0.34pct，位于 SW 一级行业中第 20 位。

燃料电池龙头，内生+外延并购不断拓展燃料电池产业链。巴拉德成立于1979 年，过去四十年公司陆续收购Dantherm Power、Protonex、AFCC 等多家公司或资产持续拓展燃料电池产业链，目前公司产品包括上游膜电极（MEA）与双极板等，中游燃料电池电堆、模组和动力系统，实现燃料电池领域的全面覆盖。2019 年公司整体营收达到1.063亿美元，同比上升10%；毛利率达到21%，EBITDA 为-2800 万美元。短期来看由于公司历年来研发投入等资本开支较大，一直处于亏损状态。

PHEV 带动欧洲新能源汽车市场高速增长。2020 年1 月欧洲市场新能源汽车销量7.47 万辆，同比增长121%，与全球-7%的变化幅度形成鲜明对比，且插电混动汽车（PHEV）的同比增速（174%）显著高于纯电动汽车（BEV）的同比增速（89%），其在当期新能源汽车销量中的占比达到48%。多方统计数据表明，2 月欧洲多个国家新能源汽车销量增速维持在100%以上。2020年1-2 月德国、挪威、法国、英国四国合计累计销量8.88 万辆，同比增长124.87%，其中BEV 和PHEV 增速分别为102.18%、170.70%。我们认为PHEV 的高增速有望贯穿全年，将为2020 年欧洲市场贡献重要增量。

In the current scenario, buyers consider the vehicle’s interior as an important feature while purchasing a car, truck, or an SUV. Upholstery is an integral part of the interior. As vehicle interior is becoming more elaborate, with contrasting surfaces and textures used to bring in the decorative and functional effect, automotive makers are considering new materials for the upholstery, with enhanced environmental performance. Fabric coatings, such as Scotchgard, also observed significant growth, as customers work to preserve the upscale interiors that they purchase. In general, the peripheral industries to the automotive upholstery industry are also experiencing steady growth. As upholstery continues to evolve and capture the attention of automotive buyers, the materials and tools used to maintain that upholstery naturally experience an increasing demand. Woven fabrics are used in dashboards, sun visors, seats and interior walls, and represent the fastest growing fabric type in the automotive upholstery market. Woven fabrics often consist of nylon, polyester, wool, or polypropylene, which have excellent performance characteristics. These materials are resistant to ultraviolet radiation and have reduced flammability, making them ideal for extreme environments sometimes found within vehicle interiors.

Inertial systems comprise IMUs in combination with high-performance sensors (gyroscopes, magnetometers, and accelerometers), to provide high-accuracy information about the surrounding environment, through relative movement. The powerful combination of IMUs with other onboard sensors, produces critical data increasing reliability of the vehicles and leading to new automation breakthroughs in automotive applications. The current generation of automobiles highly rely on the collection of data from various sensors used in the vehicle. Gyroscopes and accelerometers provide essential measurements for improving the control and stability of the vehicle. Both these sensors are liable to make significant noise at low frequency, resulting in low accuracy of the measurements, especially under the low-dynamic conditions. When these sensors are deployed in combination with inertial systems, both gyroscopes and accelerometers record accurate data regarding the rotation of wheels. This is very helpful in gathering data on wheel heading, roll and pitch estimation that stand to be key elements in managing the stability of a vehicle.

The air injection reaction (AIR) and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) play an important part of the automotive exhaust and emission control system. The exhaust manifold acts as a pathway for the exhaust gases from the exhaust ports of the engine’s cylinder and the exhaust pipes diverts the exhaust gases to the rear of the vehicle. Exhaust systems that have one pipe are single exhaust systems and that have two pipes are dual exhaust systems. Engines such as V6 and V8 can have single or dual exhaust by installing a crossover pipe that is used to connect the exhaust from both the banks and channel it into one pipe. The global automotive exhaust system market is segmented on the basis of technology, fuel type, vehicle type, and region. By technology, the market is divided into Diesel Oxidation Catalyst (DOC), Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF), Selective catalytic reduction (SCR), Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), Gasoline Particulate Filter (GPF), and others. By fuel type, it is bifurcated into gasoline and diesel. By vehicle type, it is categorized into passenger cars and commercial vehicles. By region, it is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

近期受疫情等因素影响汽车销量降幅较大，为应对消费低迷困 境，中央及地方政府多次提及稳定汽车消费，政策或成为影响今年车市走 势的关键因素之一。通过本篇报告，我们试图把“区域维度”作为主要线 索，对乘用车终端需求表现进行回顾，以便更好地理解政策的思路与弹性 以及区域市场的发展趋势。

中央及地方政府多次提及稳定汽车消费，政策或成为影响今年车市走 势重要因素之一。受疫情影响汽车产销大幅下滑，稳定汽车消费政策 预期逐渐升温。2 月 16 日《求是》杂志刊文指出“鼓励汽车限购地区 适当增加汽车号牌配额，带动汽车及相关产品消费”；商务部与工信部 相继表态“将会同相关部门研究出台进一步稳定汽车消费的政策，并 优先支持汽车等产业链长、带动能力强的产业复工复产”；3 月 13 日 发改委等 23 个部门联合发文，提出“促进汽车限购向引导使用政策转 变，鼓励汽车限购地区适当增加汽车号牌限额”。地方层面，2 月 3 日 广东佛山率先推出鼓励汽车消费政策，对每辆新购置车辆给予 2000~5000 元的资金补助，有效期 1 年；2 月 21 日广东省提出“推动 有条件的地市出台老旧汽车报废更新补贴政策，鼓励广州、深圳进一 步放宽汽车摇号和竞拍指标”；此外湖南部分地市也相继推出稳定汽车 消费相关举措。

当前已经披露业绩预告的 87 家汽车上市公司中，业绩增长（包含略增、 扭亏、预增）的企业 37 家，业绩下滑（包含略减、首亏、预减）的企业 44 家。业绩下滑的企业较多，主要受 2019 年车市景气度持续下行影响。