10 月白酒产量同比小幅下降，名酒终端价窄幅波动。2019 年10 月全国白酒产量 68.5 万千升，同比下降0.6%；全国2019 年1-10 月白酒累计产量635.1万千升，累计同比上升1.4%。京东部分名优白酒2019 年11 月29 日价格环比10 月25 日价格：京东52 度五粮液上升111 元至1,399 元/瓶；52 度剑南春下降5 元至418 元/瓶；52 度水井坊下降20 元至519 元/瓶。

周期弱化波幅收敛，消费将进一步向品牌企业集中。目前市场对于经济及外围 不确定性因素的担忧依然存在，我们认为明年的配置应稳字当头，优选业绩更 有保障、增速更为稳健的板块及个股，建议以“抗周期、稳增长”为基准，推 荐的板块优先级为白酒>乳制品>啤酒。随着行业进入存量博弈期，明年两大核 心趋势仍是消费升级和集中度提升。本轮行业增长的周期性将会减弱，不再有 销量的大起大落，行业逐步趋向稳定缓速增长，增长主旋律将由消费升级奏响。

我国不同档次白酒市场呈现截然不同状况：高端白酒享量价齐升，为“最优赛道”；次高端白酒紧随高端白酒，价格有上涨预期，市场规模有提升空间，为“次优赛道”；中低端白酒竞争激烈，市场空间被高端和次高端挤占而萎缩，生存状况最差，但低端酒龙头受益于集中度快速提升。在宏观经济增速下行及人口结构老龄化背景下，预计我国白酒消费总量将稳中有降。高端和次高端白酒受益于消费升级，将进一步积压中低端白酒的生存空间。由于经济增速下行及产能增长，预计明年高端白酒涨价承压，呈现量增价不增。在类滞胀以及外资持续流入的背景下，业绩稳健的白酒仍是市场偏好的板块，维持行业“强于大市”投资评级，建议重点关注高端及次高端白酒龙头企业。

我们结合中金独家商超肉制品消费数据，以及中美欧三地农业部权威数据，定期跟踪双汇发展和万洲国际在中美欧三地市场动态。商超数据显示，双汇肉制品9月销量和销售额同比+3.6%和+6.6%，销量表现略逊于行业，与主要竞争对手表现相近；19 年10 月中国22 省市生猪均价36.07 元/公斤，同比+162%，环比+29%；美国9 月生猪7.4 元/公斤，同比+10.4%，环比-18.5%，9 月中美生猪价差约276%。9 月单月中国进口美国猪肉量继续大幅增长，同比+294%，环比-27.6%。10 月美国猪肉均价8.86 元/公斤，同比-12.1%，环比+6.4%；欧洲10 月猪肉均价14.22元/公斤，同比+32.3%，环比+0.4%。

9 月，食品三大子行业工业增加值增速较上月呈“两降一升”态势。食品制造业工业增加值同比增长 4.2%，农副食品加工业增加值同比下降 1.2%，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业工业增加值同比增长 7.6%。食品工业主要产品中，乳制品与白酒产量均实现了同比增长，但增速有所放缓；鲜、冷藏肉产量同比下跌，跌幅进一步扩大。行业固定资产投资总体低迷，其中，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业固定资产同比增长 4.7%，食品制造业固定资产投资同比下滑3.0%，农副食品加工业固定资产投资同比减少 10.8%。

Turkey boasts one of the world’s highest per capita bread-consumption figures. Bread is the staple food for Turks, who consume it at breakfast, lunch and dinner. Rising health awareness and changing lifestyles have supported a shift to protein-based diets in major cities, but Ekmek – the traditional soft white bread – continues to account for 90% of the bread market. The production of bread, fresh pastry goods and cakes and the manufacture of grain mill products are the most fragmented segments of the Turkish food market. There are some 35,000 operating bakeries, of which just 1% are industrial bakeries, which account for 9% of the market. Consumers prefer their bread fresh, purchased from bread kiosks, little stores and publicly-owned bakeries.

The Philippines F&B sector is competitive despite its duality – most of the operating companies are small, but at the same time large corporations have significant market shares. Domestic and foreign producers compete to capture more of the growing domestic demand. Some subsectors such as beer, carbonated drinks, dairy products, and processed fruits and vegetables, are characterised by significant concentration, while others such as bottled water and bakery, are more fragmented.

Colombia’s food and beverage sector offers strong growth opportunities, benefitting from the better macroeconomic conditions in the country, growing disposable incomes, and higher spending by the rising middle class. Market players are looking not only at increasing their gains on the domestic market through diversification and introduction of new products in order to satisfy the emerging sophisticated demands of the population, but also at expanding their operations internationally. The most attractive foreign markets remain the countries from Latin America, but some companies are looking also at countries in Europe, Asia and North America.

2014Q1-2019Q3 调味品上市公司整体营收/归母净利润增速均值为 12%/26%，远优于同期肉制品、乳制品和啤酒的表现。随着经济增速中枢的系统性下移，调味品板块作为防御性突出的必选消费代表正在享受成长确定性带来的估值溢价。