本周各家酒企经销商大会陆续召开，基调稳中求进，力求高质量增长。分价格带看，高端白酒三强强基固本，再启征程，其中茅台规划打消市场担忧，次高端名企跑马圈地，目标调低兼顾质量，区域龙头立足本埠深耕，寻求省外战略布局。

18 年板块触底后，食品饮料板块在2019 取得良好表现，稳健的经营业绩是食品饮料行业获得资本市场认可的核心原因之一，由此推动的板块估值水平的恢复，目前食品饮料估值已恢复到历史估值中枢偏上分位。本轮食品饮料行业业绩的增长主要由需求端推动，因此，具有较强的持续性。虽然食品饮料行业景气度下降，营收和利润增速均放缓，且分化加大，但仍稳中前进，存在结构性机会。

临近元旦，我们走访了上海、北京多家烟酒店及商超，就白酒终端价格、动销等进行了草根调研，并与前三次调研数据进行对比分析，供各位投资者参考。

终端饮料价格坚挺。11 月社零名义同比增速8.0%，较10 月加快0.8 个百分点，食品分项同比增速9.2%，较10 月加快1.0 个百分点；就增速绝对值而言，11 月饮料表现强于粮油、食品强于烟酒。

19 年食品饮料板块上涨 77%，跑赢沪深 300 板块 45pct，在申万一级 子行业中排名第一，其中白酒（+104%）表现优异。涨幅分解来看，食品 饮料 19 年 PE 较 18 年底提升 46%，预计 19 年净利增长 22%，两者共同作 用，年初至今股价上涨 77%。进入四季度以来，食品饮料板块上涨 3.2%， 跑输沪深 300 指数 3.0pct，在申万一级子行业中排名第 17。猜测 4Q19 食品饮料行情走弱，主要原因是前期超额收益过高，股价存在下行压力； 科技板块行情到来，资金分流明显。而子行业涨幅分化，更多是与上市公 司基本面与业绩预期的变化相关。

深刻理解消费品行业竞争格局是投资的关键。消费品股价上涨来自业绩驱动，而估值贡献收益弹性。必选消费品长期超额收益稳定，抗周期性强，个股自身经营周期是取得超额收益的关键。可选消费品超额收益更多来自行业周期，理解行业所处的周期是投资的核心点。消费品的生命周期划分为成长期、平台期、整合期、衰退期四个阶段，其中成长期、整合期为较好的投资阶段。成长期高增速高估值，但要警惕新品类成长期大幅缩短以及成长性下行带来估值大幅下杀。

The report covers the detailed analysis of the trends, future estimations, and a thorough study of the global market based on type, channel, and region. It analyses government regulations, and policies, to provide information on the current market trends in different regions and suggests the future growth opportunities. The report covers the overall net value of different products of duty free liquor consumed by various consumers across the globe. The study highlights Porter’s five forces analysis to determine the factors affecting the market growth. These factors include raw material prices, intense competition, end users, manufacturers, and suppliers. To understand the market, drivers, restraints, and opportunities are explained in the report.

The global craft beer market is analyzed based on its potential and future growth rate. The report highlights numerous factors that influence the growth of the global market. These include market forecast, drivers, restraints, opportunities, and role of different key players operating in the market. The report is further studied on the basis of distribution channels, which include on-trade and off-trade. Moreover, it focuses on the product segment, including ale and lager. Furthermore, it includes the revenue generated from the sales of craft beer across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

The demand for various sizes of beer, and benefits, like one-time consumption, have made beer a preferred option for a wide range of consumers, thereby, driving the growth of the beer packaging industry. Beer remained a unique beverage and has poised several packaging challenges, due to which the manufacturers have not swayed away from traditional packaging methods. The usage of PET bottles has been one area where the packaging companies have tried to offer the beer manufacturers. But the solution was considered only for exceptional cases. Heineken had first attempted to use PET bottles during the Olympic games in 2012, held in London, but this solution was driven by safety concerns over rioting, during the games. The company is experimenting again with pet bottles in 2019. The company plans to launch two new PET beer bottle designs, which are created using PET Engineering’s interchangeable insert system.