本周涨幅前五的石化产品：丁二烯（华东），+13.6%；中国LNG（华北易高），+11.1%；丙烷（华东到岸冷冻价），+9.3%；丁酮（齐翔腾达 华东），+8.7%；甲基丙烯酸甲酯（华东），+7.1%。

1.通过对历史数据的复盘，研究美国、中国四个周期（康波周期、房地产周期、资本开支周期和库存周期）及其各个阶段，探究各个周期及周期内各阶段的特点、持续时间；2.以中美历史上各个周期及周期内各阶段的特点、持续时间为依据，判断目前所处的各周期阶段；

投资建议：产业链不断延伸，2019-2020 年民营大炼化进入投放期，民营大炼化企业迎来投资良机，重点推荐民营化工四小龙恒力石化（2000 万吨炼化项目全面投产）、桐昆股份、恒逸石化（PX 已经全面投产）和荣盛石化（PX 全面投产）+东方盛虹（1600 万吨炼化项目积极推进中），以及专注涤纶长丝市场，市场影响力和盈利综合能力最强的新凤鸣。原料轻质化，看好PDH 和乙烷裂解制备乙烯产业链，相关标的：卫星石化、东华能源。

The IoT in oil and gas market comprises major companies providing solutions, platform, automation system, and others. This chapter details the latest strategies and developments adopted by the key market players in the IoT in oil and gas market. In order to lead the market as well as engage in the process of market growth, a company needs to work in collaboration with the top market leaders, acquire the relatively weaker companies, bring new products and services to the market, and improve the existing products.

2020 年9 月24 日，山东省税务局发布了关于油价调控风险准备金征管事项的公告，表示在山东省内生产汽、柴油的炼油厂应按照国家发改委核定的征收标准向主管税务机关缴纳风险准备金，即当国际原油价格低于40 美元/桶时，国内汽、柴油出厂价格应调未调的部分金额。

恒逸石化9 月16 日发布公告称，子公司将投资建设文莱炼化二期项目。巨化股份9 月18 日发布公告称，公司正在筹划以发行股份及支付现金的方式，收购巨化投资持有的浙石化20%股权。

民营炼化成为国内炼化行业主要扩产方向，炼化一体化程度持续加强的趋势不变。我们梳理了国内炼化行业的五大趋势：1）国内炼油产能继续增长，民营炼厂持续崛起；2）国内炼厂结构性过剩，平均规模仍较小，优化空间巨大；3）国内炼厂开工率上升，炼油单吨毛利下降；4）炼化一体化趋势持续加强，化工品产率快速增加；5）民营大炼化项目集中投产，行业话语权提升。

Graphite is a mineral of carbon used in the various applications such as electrical vehicle, refractories, foundry, lubricating agent, construction applications, and others. The increasing use of graphite in the above-mentioned industries is owing to its several advantages such as reduces wear, easy to machine, thermal shock resistant, high metal removal rate, and others. Graphite is a non-metal but possess metallic properties such as high stiffness, strength, good conductor of electricity & heat, and others. There are two different forms of graphite, which include natural graphite and synthetic graphite. The global graphite market is segmented on the basis of type, application, and region. Depending on type, the market is bifurcated into natural graphite and synthetic graphite. The natural graphite segment is further subcategorized into flake graphite, amorphous graphite, and vein graphite. The synthetic graphite segment is further classified into graphite electrode, graphite block, carbon fiber, graphite powder, and others. Based on the application, the global graphite market is segmented into lubrication, refractories, foundry, battery production, and others. Region wise, the market is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA.

截止2020 年9 月3 日，布伦特原油期货结算价为44.07 美元/桶，WTI 原油期货结算价为44.37 美元/桶。2020 年受疫情影响及供给过剩，油价大幅下跌。展望后市，我们判断国际油价在需求回暖、协议减产等背景下全年有望保持中位运行，预计布伦特中枢在40 美元/桶左右。

化工品需求增速大于油品需求增速刺激原油直接制化学品技术发展：受经济增速、经济结构变化和新能源等因素的影响，长期来看全球石油需求增速呈下行趋势。同时，石油消费结构发生变化，用于化工产品生产的石油占比呈上行趋势。化工产品的需求增速远大于油品需求增速是炼油行业产品调整的源动力，是原油直接制化学品技术（COTC）诞生的根本原因。炼油技术会随着产品需求结构的变化而演化，目前中国民营大炼化是全球最先进的一批炼厂，化工产品的收率可以达到50%以上。我国的炼化企业正从生产成品油向多产高附加值石化产品转变。