天然气价格夏季消费淡季出现罕见的大幅上涨。亚太LNG 现货市场价格近期达到9 美金/百万英热；欧洲LNG 现货市场的价格达到8 美金/百万英热。这是之前难以想象的夏季价格水平。

在油价回归背景下，考虑到影响石油加工行业的主要不利因素在2021 年“由负转正”，石油加工行业存在业绩周期改善的预期；同时看好进行低成本业务布局实施规模扩张的头部企业。重点推荐卫星石化（002648.SZ）、上海石化（600688.SZ）、中国石化（600028.SH）；油价回暖也利于油服行业的景气复苏，推荐石化油服（600871.SH）、通源石油（300164.SZ）。同时建议关注宝丰能源（600989.SH）、三友化工（600409.SH）、广汇能源（600256.SH）等。

当下石油市场的基本面：全球原油库存已经回到正常水平。Q3 原油需求预期复苏。预计接下来一段时间，随着美国和欧洲疫苗注射推进和出行的修复，尤其是6-8 月份美国出行旺季的到来，原油需求持续改善的确定性比较强。而OPEC+比较节制的边际增产，将使其产量将低于“call-on OPEC+“水平。

The graphite coatings market is segmented on the basis of application, end use, and region. By application, the market is classified into lubrication, anti-seize agent, release agent, and other. Depending on end use, it is segregated into automotive, displays & sensors, metal coating, and others. Region wise, it is analyzed across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA. The report covers the strategies adopted by key players in the market to sustain the competitive environment and increase their market share. The key players operating the global market include Imerys Graphite & Carbon, Asbury Carbons, Mersen, Elcora Advanced Materials Corp., Triton Minerals, CONDAT Corporation, Whitford, Van Sickle Paint Mfg. Company, Final Advanced Materials, and BECHEM. In addition, the market drivers, restraints, and opportunities are explained in the report.

Synthetic rubber is an artificial elastomer, which is produced from the by-products of petroleum. Liquid synthetic rubber is a polyurethane in liquid state, which exhibits enhanced flow properties superior abrasion resistance. It finds its major application in industrial rubber manufacturing, tire manufacturing, polymer modification, and adhesive manufacturing. For the purpose of analysis, the report segments the global liquid synthetic rubber market based on product, application, and region. The report outlines the details about the various products available in the market, which include liquid isoprene rubber, liquid butadiene rubber, liquid styrene butadiene rubber, and others. The applications covered in the study include adhesives, industrial rubber, tire manufacturing, polymer modification, and others. The report further analyzes the market trends across North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and LAMEA. In addition, it highlights market dynamics that impact the growth of the global market such as key drivers, restraints, growth opportunities, and the role of key players.

受疫情影响，2020年，石油石化行业实现营业收入49460.6亿元，同比增长-22.4%，增速较2019年下降近27个百分点。2020年，石油石化全行业实现归母净利润888.2亿元，同比增长-35.4%，增速较2019年下降30.9个百分点。2020年，石油石化行业净资产收益率（ROE）为3.8%，较2019年下降2.1个百分点；销售毛利率为18.6%，较2019年上升1.3个百分点。

从2021 年4 月份数据来看，受油价波动影响，民营大炼化项目盈利冲高后调整，但仍处于历史较高位置。烯烃产业链：石脑油制乙烯和乙烷裂解制乙烯价差相比3 月小幅下降，但仍处于历史较好位置，PDH 盈利在修复，MTO 盈利下滑。芳烃和聚酯产业链：PX 的盈利环比改善，PTA 小幅回复，而下游涤纶长丝、短纤和瓶片的价差略有收窄。我们继续推荐民营炼化龙头恒力石化、荣盛石化和东方盛虹；重视聚酯龙头桐昆股份和恒逸石化聚酯业务盈利的同比提升；以及关注轻烃裂解龙头卫星石化（未覆盖）连云港石化项目的进度。

原油：价格震荡上涨。周内前期，对疫苗作用和中美等国需求上涨的乐观心态冲抵了印度疫情肆虐及OPEC+供应增多的影响，原油价格震荡上涨。周内后期，欧洲需求增长乐观，美国及欧洲部分地区封锁措施放宽，提升夏季燃料需求前景并抵消印度及日本新冠肺炎病例增加的忧虑，以及美国上上周原油库存大跌支撑油价，不过印度及其它地区新冠肺炎病例增加限制了油价涨幅，国际油价震荡小涨。截止周末，布伦特原油价格为68.09（+0.84）美元/桶，WTI 原油价格为64.71（+1.13）美元/桶。

化工持仓比例大幅提升，排在历史第6 高位 我们对公募基金10Q1以来的重仓股数据进行了统计和分析。21Q1 公募基金重仓持有化工股占全部A 股比例为5.06%，环比提升0.65pct；该持仓比例处在历史低点（2.09%）和高点（6.84%）的较高位置，排在历史第6 位。20Q1 受疫情影响，公募基金配置化工股意愿创下历史新低，自此之后开始逐季回升、加仓迹象明显，这是对化工行业整体周期改善的充分反映。随着化工行业下游地产、汽车、家电、纺织服装等持续景气向上，化工行业仍存在周期改善预期，基金持仓比例有望继续维持高位。